# AUTONOMY — "Kev touches nothing for 7 days, what happens"

Session 60 (night2), traced on d10bb4c + tonight's fixes. Every step cites
its code. Verdict at the bottom.

## The daily loop (all times ET / UTC)

**10:00 AM ET (14:00 UTC) — cron slot 1** (`snapshotScheduler.js` HOURS_UTC
= 14,19,22,1,3; armed by `SNAPSHOT_CRON=1` in server.js):
1. **Settle pass runs FIRST** (`tick()` order: settleAllOutcomes →
   settleAllLedgers → runAllSnapshots):
   - `outcomeService.settleAllOutcomes` — settles yesterday's snapshot
     grades vs real MLB game logs → `outcomes:{sport}:log` +
     `accuracy:{sport}` + `accuracy:overall`.
     **P0 FIXED TONIGHT:** `SNAP_TTL` was 6h but the overnight gap
     (03:00→14:00 UTC) is 11h — the snapshot EXPIRED before this pass and
     the accuracy loop settled nothing. Now 24h (`snapshotService.js`).
   - `ledgerService.settleAllLedgers` — settles Supabase `ledger_entries`
     (game_date < today ET): outcome + actual_value + CLV vs the captured
     closing line. Reads Postgres, immune to Redis TTLs. Idempotent
     (`.is('outcome', null)` guard) — re-runs are no-ops.
2. **Snapshot pass** (`snapshotService.runSnapshot` per sport):
   - `getOdds` (PropLine free keys, odds-api backup) → date-pinned; a
     morning with no lines yet = honest `skipped: no props` (NOT retried —
     only thrown/null responses retry once).
   - grades → normalize/dedupe → archetype+team resolve (free statsapi)
     → `snapshot:{sport}:latest` + `grades:{sport}` (6h TTL — outlives the
     5h max intra-day gap) → ticker events.
   - **Ledger write**: `recordPipelineGrades` upserts public rows
     (user_id NULL, `ignoreDuplicates` — re-runs never dupe or overwrite
     the original lock). `captureClosing` overwrites today's unsettled
     rows' closing_line/odds with current feed values.

**3:00 PM / 6:00 PM / 9:00 PM / 11:00 PM ET — cron slots 2–5**: same tick.
Each run re-captures closing (the LAST write before a game starts is the
real close — after start the prop leaves the feed, so it freezes), computes
line deltas vs the previous snapshot (ticker MOVE), and upserts any newly
posted props as new locked rows.

**Overnight**: games finish; nothing runs until 10 AM, when the settle pass
closes yesterday's book. Every settled row gets outcome/actual/CLV exactly
once.

## Self-healing / watchdogs
- Missed-cron watchdog (per-minute, `isSnapshotOverdue`) → ntfy alert
  (`vyndr-pipeline-kev2026`) once per missed slot. Snapshot success/empty/
  failure also alert (`opsNotify`, never throws).
- `GET /api/internal/snapshot/status` (internal key) → cron_armed, last
  snapshot, redis keys, `overdue` flag.
- Schedule/streaks/hotlist read caches self-heal on miss (cache-aside ESPN,
  date-pinned since Session 57). Public snapshot/ledger reads are
  cache-only and can never drain quota.

## What accumulates without touch (day 1 → day 7)
- Day 1: first locked rows; MODEL tab "RECORD BUILDING · N pending".
- Day 2 morning: first settles + CLV (closing captured day 1). AccuracyBadge
  leaves "LEARNING" at 8 settled; ledger aggregates render % at n≥20.
- Day ~3–4 (MLB volume ~20-25 graded/day, all settleable): hit% + beat-close%
  go live on /ledger MODEL, landing ModelRecord, player strips.
- Day 7: 30d-window aggregates, per-player records accruing. WNBA rows
  accumulate PENDING (honest) until Phase 4.5 (ESPN box-score settle,
  due ~Jul 24) — the one known credibility clock.

## Dependencies that must stay true (the only touch-points)
1. Coolify container running with `SNAPSHOT_CRON=1`, PropLine keys,
   SUPABASE_URL + service key, REDIS_URL. (One-time, already set.)
2. Redis persistence is server-side config (Session 52) — snapshot keys
   vanishing on restart = Coolify Redis setting, not code. The LEDGER is
   Postgres and survives anything.
3. ntfy channel monitored casually — alerts are informational; the loop
   needs no response.

## Verdict
**Zero-touch for 7 days: YES for the core record** (grade→lock→close→
settle→aggregate, all scheduled in-process, idempotent, alert-covered) —
after tonight's SNAP_TTL fix, which was the one broken link (morning
settles silently skipped). Known honest gaps: WNBA settles pending until
4.5; streaks/hot-list data production was EXTERNAL (tank01-prefetch via
n8n/cron, possibly unarmed) — Session B moves log production into the
snapshot pipeline so the aggregator feeds itself.
