# CLV Capture Broken — C4 Finding (2026-07-17)

Source: Truth-Everywhere Part 2, item 7. Escalated from the "0% BEAT CLOSE"
observation on the public accuracy surfaces.

## The bug
Every settled ledger row has `closing_line == locked_line` (and
`closing_odds == locked_odds`), so the computed `clv` is 0/flat on the ENTIRE
sample. `beat_close_pct` therefore reads a fabricated-looking **0%** — it is
comparing a number to itself, not measuring closing-line value.

Evidence (live `/api/ledger/model`, 2026-07-17): sampled rows show
`line == closing_line`, `clv: null`/0, `clv_result: null`/flat across the board.

## Root cause (to fix in C4)
`ledgerService.captureClosing` overwrites today's unsettled rows'
`closing_line`/`closing_odds` on every snapshot with the CURRENT feed values.
The intent (S58) was "the last write before game start is the close." But in
practice the captured value equals the locked line every time — either the
lines genuinely don't move in the captured window, or captureClosing is reading
the same feed field the lock came from and writing it back unchanged. Net: the
"closing" column is a copy of the lock, so CLV is structurally always 0.

## The fix (C4 — not done here)
Capture the REAL last line before game start into a SEPARATE field, never
defaulted to the lock:
- Record `closing_line` only from a distinct closing snapshot (the last feed
  read before first pitch/tip), and only when it actually differs from the
  lock — otherwise leave it null (absent, not a copy).
- CLV = signed(locked - closing) by side, computed only when a real, distinct
  closing line exists. No close captured ⇒ CLV null for that row (honest), not 0.
- Verify against a few known line moves before trusting the aggregate.

## Interim (shipped this pass, item 7)
`beat_close_pct` and `clv_distribution` are SUPPRESSED at the source
(`getModelAggregate`, gated by `clvCaptureReliable()` /
`CLV_CAPTURE_RELIABLE=1`). Every public surface (ModelRecord, ledger MODEL tab,
public profiles, OG images) already renders BEAT CLOSE only when non-null, so
they all hide it now — no measured-wrong zero on any public surface. HIT RATE
(which is real) is unaffected. Flip `CLV_CAPTURE_RELIABLE=1` once C4 lands and
real closes are verified.
