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arch-v1 axis audit: env/matchup were dead; environment fixed

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Report for the audit + fix already committed. Records the two things worth
carrying forward:

1. The environment axis has NOT yet been observed writing to the ledger,
   and I am not claiming it has. recordPipelineGrades upserts with
   ignoreDuplicates and dedupes on (user_id, player_key, stat, line, side,
   game_id) -- correctly, so a re-run never overwrites the original lock.
   Today's 429 rows predate the fix, so the axis cannot backfill onto them;
   first ledger observation is tomorrow's slate. What IS directly verified
   is the resolver (105/120) and the join key (416/416) -- the two things
   that were actually broken.

2. Matchup is not fixed and is not claimed as fixed. It needs the opposing
   starter and BOTH hands, and the audit shows three separate absences:
   oppPitcherByTeam 0, handById 0, bats 0/120. Fixing the pitcher feed
   without the hands, or the hands without the feed, still produces an axis
   that fires on zero rows.

Also noted: the S59 slate JOIN INVARIANT keys off the same null `team`
field, so it is currently inert too.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>
Claude-Session: https://claude.ai/code/session_01QJs13VsyiSKYQP6rj3NNmc
This commit is contained in:
Kev
2026-08-01 04:12:28 -04:00
parent 4435856f46
commit 0d43fb7db8
2 changed files with 152 additions and 0 deletions
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specs/MASTER-PLAN.md
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@@ -78,6 +78,8 @@ multi-book data.
| **soccer** | **settles** — ~15 competitions, 30d | "grades into a void" is a **$19/mo Pro-tier** problem, not a data problem |
| **CLV + results feeds** | `/odds/closing` + `/movement` **redacted**; `/results` **403 `required_tier: hobby`**; `/exports/resolved-props` **403 `required_tier: pro`** | **verified on our keys** — plain tier exclusion, not a key or plan fault. **$9/mo** buys CLV + steam + results; **$19/mo** adds the 90-day settlement export |
| **books SERVED** | 5 → **13**; props rendered **546 → 2,780** (5.1×); mean **4.22** books/prop | **AGGREGATOR widening is LIVE.** Of 2,234 newly-visible props, **31.2% carry a real non-DFS price**; **68.8% are DFS-only** — shown, tagged, never a market |
| **arch-v1 condition axes** | **env + matchup fired on 0/634 prod rows** — `team` was null on 416/416, so the venue join had no key. **Environment FIXED** (joins on the game; resolves 105/120). **Matchup still dead** — needs opposing SP + both hands, three separate absences | `specs/arch-v1-axis-audit.md` |
| **opportunity_drift** | built, orthogonal (r≈0), live as a challenger on 142 rows/slate | verdict n-blocked; `scripts/opportunity-axis-holdout.sql` |
| **opportunity layer** | **NOT BUILT** — `ab_per_game` is display-only; engine1 has no usage factor; MLB batting order unavailable in every wired source | Step 0 stopped before wiring. Recommended instead: an `opportunity_drift` axis on the EXISTING `challengerProjection` (arch-v1). See `specs/connect-opportunity-step0.md` |
| **MLB board size** | **7 → 365 graded props** (52×) in 114s | the 25-cap discarded 95.7% of the slate. Raised to 500 on measured cost. Refusals were **43.8% deliberate policy suppression**, not a data gap |
| **model input** | **byte-identical** — 546 gradeable props, `v1_first_book` | `MODEL_BOOKS` gate in `dedupeProps` + `indexOddsProps`. Lifts only on the re-run |