docs: promotion gate not passed (no flip); Order B edge_pct display retired

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com> Claude-Session: https://claude.ai/code/session_01QJs13VsyiSKYQP6rj3NNmc
2026-07-31 00:58:34 -04:00
parent 0997334f8b
commit 10aaaeb1da
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@@ -542,3 +542,26 @@ replaced (`p_win` vs `fair_prob`, both already stored), not the multiply moved**
 our own record for the 9 of 11 live markets that have none.

 313 suites / 3,899 tests green, web build exit 0.
+
+---
+
+# PROMOTION GATE NOT PASSED · ORDER B SHIPPED — 2026-07-31 → `specs/edge-pct-display-retirement.md`
+
+**No flip.** Champion grade byte-identical; projection/p_win/CLV untouched.
+
+**Gate: 3 of 4 prerequisites fail.** Scores are estimated priors (and the premise's NBA 0.72 / WNBA
+0.68 are not in the code — there is no WNBA score); **the version-boundary tag never landed**
+(`modelEras.js` has zero shading refs); **no rollback flag exists**. Takeable tags did land (034).
+
+**The approved delta is wrong.** Approved 43.6% re-letter, efficient tighten / soft hold. Measured on
+1,250 rows: **97.4% change, 79.8% UP**, → **79.0% A-family (MLB 93.4%)** vs champion 0.2%, with
+**0 rows actually shaded**. The re-letter is entirely the grading-basis switch, not efficiency shading
+(inert: 96.5% of markets unscored, the one scored market is the f=1 anchor). Flipping would mint A's
+across 79% of an append-only record on a letter with r ≈ 0.005 vs outcomes.
+
+**Order B shipped:** edge_pct display retired from GradeResultCard (strip, EDGE cell → `—`, ladder
+rung) and SoccerGradeResult; DeskShowcase kept; **computation + signed-edge sort fallback survive**
+(deleting them re-breaks the 07-29 sort fix). Two build-breakers fixed; two pre-existing sign-colour
+tests superseded by the stronger "no edge figure renders at all".
+
+314 suites / 3,908 tests green, web build exit 0.