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Verify the cap raise on prod: 7 -> 365 graded props

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Induced, not projected. DEFAULT_LIMIT=500 produced 365 graded props in
114s (was 7 in 16s) -- 52x the board. All 365 carry a unique forecast_rank
and ZERO leak p_win to anonymous callers, so the tier gating holds at 50x
the volume. Anon payload 220KB in 0.44s. Stat mix went from three stats to
ten. Health green.

Measured cost curve via the ?limit= bisect hook: 1->42s, 25->58s, 60->42s,
120->66s, 500->114s. About 42s of that is FIXED overhead (odds fetch,
roster logs, archetype classify, retention), paid whether we grade 1 prop
or 500 -- grading is the cheap part.

MY PRE-FLIGHT ESTIMATE WAS WRONG. I predicted ~72s from per-prop latency
measured in isolation, which ignored the fixed cost. Real figure 114s.

A FALSE ALARM RECORDED because acting on it would have meant reverting a
fix that works: the first induced run 502'd at 13.4s and I hypothesised
load -- memory or a proxy timeout under 20x the work. Wrong. A limit=25 run
then 502'd in 2 seconds, which no amount of load explains, and both
recovered on retry. The 502s were the deploy rolling, not the cap.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>
Claude-Session: https://claude.ai/code/session_01QJs13VsyiSKYQP6rj3NNmc
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Kev
2026-08-01 02:22:30 -04:00
parent 8d052131c5
commit 11b0139481
2 changed files with 42 additions and 4 deletions
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specs/MASTER-PLAN.md
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@@ -78,6 +78,7 @@ multi-book data.
| **soccer** | **settles** — ~15 competitions, 30d | "grades into a void" is a **$19/mo Pro-tier** problem, not a data problem |
| **CLV + results feeds** | `/odds/closing` + `/movement` **redacted**; `/results` **403 `required_tier: hobby`**; `/exports/resolved-props` **403 `required_tier: pro`** | **verified on our keys** — plain tier exclusion, not a key or plan fault. **$9/mo** buys CLV + steam + results; **$19/mo** adds the 90-day settlement export |
| **books SERVED** | 5 → **13**; props rendered **546 → 2,780** (5.1×); mean **4.22** books/prop | **AGGREGATOR widening is LIVE.** Of 2,234 newly-visible props, **31.2% carry a real non-DFS price**; **68.8% are DFS-only** — shown, tagged, never a market |
| **MLB board size** | **7 → 365 graded props** (52×) in 114s | the 25-cap discarded 95.7% of the slate. Raised to 500 on measured cost. Refusals were **43.8% deliberate policy suppression**, not a data gap |
| **model input** | **byte-identical** — 546 gradeable props, `v1_first_book` | `MODEL_BOOKS` gate in `dedupeProps` + `indexOddsProps`. Lifts only on the re-run |
| **accrual clock** | **sequential, post-completion** | see §11. Pre-completion data does not count and is never pooled |