Order Zero Phases 1-3: keyed verification, ruler_version boundary, report

PHASE 1 (measured on the live prod feed with the real key):

- WNBA is NOT thin at the feed -- 4.21 books/prop vs MLB's 3.61. It was
  allow-list-starved exactly as MLB was. This removes one candidate
  explanation for its anti-predictive result; it does not explain it, and
  WNBA stays abstaining.
- We cannot see 64.8% of the MLB slate at all (zero admitted books).
- Exchanges are real (smarkets 27%, novig 22%, kalshi 15% on MLB) but
  pinnacle, matchbook and polymarket measured 0% on BOTH sports. There is
  no sharp anchor for player props. The consensus is a MARKET consensus,
  not a SHARP one -- recorded as a permanent limitation, not a milestone.
- DFS is the trap, quantified: prizepicks covers 82% of MLB props, the
  highest in the feed. Admitting it "for breadth" would have looked like
  the biggest available win. Permanently excluded.
- Endpoints: /context WORKS and is FREE (umpire, roof, pitcher handedness,
  lineup confirmation -- richer than what we hand-built). /odds/closing and
  /movement are REDACTED (full structure, zero prices). /results and
  /exports/resolved-props are 403.
- The $19/mo question is answered: soccer IS graded, ~15 competitions in 30
  days (MLS 41k, Liga MX 15k, Brasileirao 12k, UCL/Europa/Conference). Our
  "soccer grades into a void" is a Pro-tier problem, not a data problem.
  NBA is absent because it is July -- seasonal, not inferable either way.

PHASE 2 delta, corrected: MLB mean +1.50 pts, median 0, p90 +10.0, 17.0%
of comparable props move >=5 pts, one-directional (the incumbent prices
the over below the exchange-inclusive consensus). WNBA symmetric and
tight. The median prop does not move -- the change is a right-skewed
minority. That the rulers DIFFER is established; that the new one is
BETTER is not, and that is the re-run.

PHASE 2 item 6: ledger_entries.ruler_version applied to prod, 1,384
existing rows backfilled to v1_first_book (a statement of fact -- every
row to date was produced by the first-book rule). ledgerService stamps
CURRENT_RULER_VERSION on new rows. Never pool edge or CLV across it.

Repo migration numbering lags prod; 025_ledger_ruler_version.sql records
the DDL for review.

PHASE 3: MLB isotonic p_win remains PROVISIONAL -- calibrated against
v1_first_book, does not promote until re-run on the consensus ruler.

NOT LIVE, deliberately: ALLOWED_BOOKS unchanged, served slate
byte-identical, CURRENT_RULER_VERSION still v1_first_book, no live path
calls consensusRuler.

Gates: 4,022 tests passed / 322 suites; next build exit 0.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>
Claude-Session: https://claude.ai/code/session_01QJs13VsyiSKYQP6rj3NNmc

specs/MASTER-PLAN.md

@@ -322,8 +322,27 @@ Two overturn standing beliefs: **"NBA/WNBA/soccer have no free settled feed"** m
 be a **$19/mo** problem rather than a data problem; and we hand-built probable
 pitchers / depth charts / lineup confirmation that `/context` serves free.
 
-**Caveat:** these are *documented*, not verified for our tier — that needs the
-PropLine key (prod-only, absent locally). Do not plan on them as facts yet.
+> **VERIFIED 2026-08-01 with the real key** — `specs/order-zero-consensus-ruler.md`.
+> `/context` **WORKS, FREE** (umpire, roof, pitcher handedness, lineup
+> confirmation — richer than what we hand-built). `/odds/closing` and
+> `/movement` are **REDACTED** on our tier (full structure, **zero prices**) —
+> my first pass wrongly called them "works" on a non-empty body. `/results` and
+> `/exports/resolved-props` are **403**.
+>
+> **But the settlements exist to be bought:** `/markets/resolution-summary`
+> shows **soccer graded across ~15 competitions in 30 days** (MLS 41k, Liga MX
+> 15k, Brasileirão 12k, UCL/Europa/Conference…). **"Soccer grades into a void"
+> is a $19/mo Pro-tier problem, not a data problem.** NBA is absent because it
+> is July — seasonal, not a coverage gap, and not inferable either way.
+>
+> **WNBA is NOT thin at the feed** — 4.21 books/prop vs MLB's 3.61. It was
+> allow-list-starved exactly as MLB was. This removes one candidate explanation
+> for its anti-predictive result; it does not explain it, and WNBA stays
+> abstaining.
+>
+> **No sharp anchor exists for props:** `pinnacle`, `matchbook` and `polymarket`
+> all measured **0%** on both sports. The consensus ruler is therefore a MARKET
+> consensus, not a SHARP one — stated as a permanent limitation, not a milestone.
 
 ## 10.2 What a real DATA AGGREGATOR has that we don't