Session 15: Intelligence hardening — park factors, weather, Tank01 prefetch, pace factors, signal audit, founder pricing fix (1405 tests)

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-06-11 16:21:18 -04:00
parent f5d79cf70d
commit 167996d99a
20 changed files with 1550 additions and 28 deletions
@@ -0,0 +1,66 @@
+/**
+ * NBA team pace factors (Session 15).
+ *
+ * Source: NBA.com/stats team pace data 2024-25 season (possessions
+ * per 48 minutes, league average ~98). Indexed to 100 = league
+ * average so values compose multiplicatively with the player's
+ * baseline stats — a 105-pace team adds ~5% to counting stats
+ * (points, rebounds, assists, etc.); a 94-pace team subtracts ~6%.
+ *
+ * Update annually before the playoffs (the regular-season composite
+ * is stable by All-Star break). For mid-season grades, consider
+ * blending this static table with the live `team_pace` value the
+ * orchestrator already computes from game logs.
+ */
+
+const PACE_FACTORS = Object.freeze({
+  // East
+  ATL: 103, BOS: 99,  BKN: 100, CHA: 102, CHI: 98,
+  CLE: 96,  DET: 102, IND: 105, MIA: 98,  MIL: 99,
+  NYK: 95,  ORL: 94,  PHI: 99,  TOR: 100, WAS: 102,
+  // West
+  DAL: 99,  DEN: 99,  GSW: 102, HOU: 102, LAC: 99,
+  LAL: 100, MEM: 102, MIN: 99,  NOP: 100, OKC: 100,
+  PHX: 99,  POR: 102, SAC: 104, SAS: 100, UTA: 102,
+});
+
+const LEAGUE_AVERAGE = 100;
+
+function normalizeTeamCode(team) {
+  if (!team) return null;
+  return String(team).trim().toUpperCase();
+}
+
+/**
+ * getPaceFactor — returns null for unknown teams so the feature
+ * extractor drops the signal entirely rather than reporting "league-
+ * average pace" on a typo.
+ */
+function getPaceFactor(team) {
+  const code = normalizeTeamCode(team);
+  if (!code) return null;
+  // The grading orchestrator uses some legacy abbreviations:
+  //   NJN → BKN (Nets relocated 2012)
+  //   NOH/NOK → NOP (Pelicans rebrand)
+  //   SEA → OKC (Sonics relocated)
+  //   CHO → CHA (Hornets rebrand)
+  // Folded here so old game-log teams still resolve to current pace.
+  const alias = ALIASES[code];
+  return PACE_FACTORS[alias || code] || null;
+}
+
+const ALIASES = Object.freeze({
+  NJN: 'BKN',
+  NOH: 'NOP',
+  NOK: 'NOP',
+  SEA: 'OKC',
+  CHO: 'CHA',
+});
+
+module.exports = {
+  PACE_FACTORS,
+  LEAGUE_AVERAGE,
+  ALIASES,
+  getPaceFactor,
+  __internals: { normalizeTeamCode },
+};
@@ -0,0 +1,107 @@
+/**
+ * MLB park factors (Session 15).
+ *
+ * Source: FanGraphs 2024-25 park factor data (three-year weighted
+ * average — FanGraphs methodology). Numbers indexed to 100 = league
+ * average. Pulled from https://www.fangraphs.com/guts.aspx (Park
+ * Factors tab) 2025-04. Update annually; the rolling-three-year
+ * window means values move slowly.
+ *
+ * Fields per park:
+ *   hr — home run factor (Coors ~128 means HRs are 28% more likely;
+ *        Oracle/SF ~85 means 15% less likely)
+ *   h  — overall hit factor
+ *   r  — runs factor
+ *
+ * The feature extractor reads this via `getParkFactor(homeTeam)`
+ * during the MLB branch and merges hr/h/r as `park_hr`, `park_h`,
+ * `park_r` so the grading engine + reasoning builder can read them
+ * without re-doing the lookup.
+ *
+ * Indexing convention: home-team abbreviation. The road team plays
+ * at the home team's park, so a Yankees-at-Angels game uses LAA's
+ * park factors regardless of whose batter you're grading.
+ */
+
+const PARK_FACTORS = Object.freeze({
+  // AL East
+  BAL: { hr: 109, h: 100, r: 102 },  // Camden Yards — left field wall changes leveled off post-2022
+  BOS: { hr: 100, h: 108, r: 106 },  // Fenway — Monster boosts singles/doubles, suppresses HR
+  NYY: { hr: 114, h: 101, r: 104 },  // Yankee Stadium — short porch in right
+  TB:  { hr:  93, h:  96, r:  94 },  // Tropicana — neutral-to-pitcher dome
+  TOR: { hr: 106, h: 101, r: 102 },  // Rogers Centre — slight HR boost
+
+  // AL Central
+  CHW: { hr: 109, h: 102, r: 105 },  // Guaranteed Rate Field
+  CLE: { hr:  96, h:  99, r:  98 },  // Progressive Field — slight pitcher park
+  DET: { hr:  90, h: 100, r:  97 },  // Comerica — deep alleys, HR-suppressed
+  KC:  { hr:  93, h: 103, r: 101 },  // Kauffman — XBH-friendly, HR-neutral
+  MIN: { hr: 105, h: 100, r: 101 },  // Target Field
+
+  // AL West
+  HOU: { hr: 100, h: 101, r: 101 },  // Minute Maid — Crawford boxes ~neutral, dome
+  LAA: { hr:  97, h:  98, r:  98 },  // Angel Stadium
+  OAK: { hr:  91, h:  95, r:  92 },  // Coliseum — extreme pitcher park
+  SEA: { hr:  96, h:  98, r:  96 },  // T-Mobile Park — marine air
+  TEX: { hr: 104, h: 102, r: 103 },  // Globe Life — climate-controlled since 2020
+
+  // NL East
+  ATL: { hr: 103, h: 100, r: 101 },  // Truist Park
+  MIA: { hr:  89, h:  97, r:  94 },  // loanDepot park — deep alleys
+  NYM: { hr:  95, h:  99, r:  97 },  // Citi Field — slight pitcher
+  PHI: { hr: 109, h: 100, r: 102 },  // Citizens Bank Park — bandbox right field
+  WSH: { hr: 100, h: 100, r: 100 },  // Nationals Park — true neutral
+
+  // NL Central
+  CHC: { hr: 106, h: 100, r: 102 },  // Wrigley — wind-driven swings; multi-year average
+  CIN: { hr: 113, h: 102, r: 105 },  // Great American — top-3 HR park most years
+  MIL: { hr: 104, h: 100, r: 101 },  // American Family Field
+  PIT: { hr:  96, h: 101, r:  99 },  // PNC Park — XBH-favorable, HR-suppressed
+  STL: { hr:  93, h:  98, r:  96 },  // Busch — neutral-to-pitcher
+
+  // NL West
+  ARI: { hr: 100, h:  98, r:  98 },  // Chase Field — humidor since 2018
+  COL: { hr: 128, h: 112, r: 120 },  // Coors Field — altitude. Single biggest park effect.
+  LAD: { hr: 102, h:  99, r:  99 },  // Dodger Stadium
+  SD:  { hr:  95, h:  97, r:  95 },  // Petco — marine air pitcher park
+  SF:  { hr:  85, h:  96, r:  92 },  // Oracle Park — Bay winds suppress HRs heavily
+});
+
+const NEUTRAL = Object.freeze({ hr: 100, h: 100, r: 100 });
+
+function normalizeTeamCode(team) {
+  if (!team) return null;
+  return String(team).trim().toUpperCase();
+}
+
+/**
+ * getParkFactor — lookup by home-team code. Returns null for unknown
+ * teams so the feature extractor can drop the signal entirely rather
+ * than falsely report "neutral park" on a misspelled abbreviation.
+ *
+ * @param {string} homeTeam — three-letter team code (BAL, NYY, COL, ...)
+ * @returns {{hr:number, h:number, r:number}|null}
+ */
+function getParkFactor(homeTeam) {
+  const code = normalizeTeamCode(homeTeam);
+  if (!code) return null;
+  return PARK_FACTORS[code] || null;
+}
+
+/**
+ * Convenience — when you want a guaranteed object (e.g. arithmetic
+ * downstream that can't handle null). Falls back to league-neutral.
+ * Prefer getParkFactor + explicit-null branching in code; this is
+ * for tests and downstream services that prefer 100s over null.
+ */
+function getParkFactorOrNeutral(homeTeam) {
+  return getParkFactor(homeTeam) || NEUTRAL;
+}
+
+module.exports = {
+  PARK_FACTORS,
+  NEUTRAL,
+  getParkFactor,
+  getParkFactorOrNeutral,
+  __internals: { normalizeTeamCode },
+};
@@ -0,0 +1,103 @@
+/**
+ * Venue coordinates + dome flags (Session 15).
+ *
+ * Sources:
+ *   - MLB stadium coordinates: Wikipedia infoboxes, cross-checked against
+ *     each team's "stadium" entry on baseball-reference.com (2025).
+ *   - World Cup 2026 venues: official FIFA host-city announcements + the
+ *     static venue list already in `src/data/worldcup2026.js`.
+ *   - Dome flag = roof either fully closed or retractable. Retractable
+ *     stadiums count as dome for weather purposes (operators close the
+ *     roof when conditions warrant — weather doesn't drive grade).
+ *
+ * Lat/lon precision: 4 decimal places (~10m). Sufficient for an
+ * Open-Meteo grid-cell lookup. Higher precision would be theater.
+ */
+
+// ---- MLB ----
+
+const MLB_VENUES = Object.freeze({
+  // AL East
+  BAL: { lat: 39.2839, lon: -76.6217, dome: false, name: 'Camden Yards' },
+  BOS: { lat: 42.3467, lon: -71.0972, dome: false, name: 'Fenway Park' },
+  NYY: { lat: 40.8296, lon: -73.9262, dome: false, name: 'Yankee Stadium' },
+  TB:  { lat: 27.7682, lon: -82.6534, dome: true,  name: 'Tropicana Field' },
+  TOR: { lat: 43.6414, lon: -79.3894, dome: true,  name: 'Rogers Centre' },
+  // AL Central
+  CHW: { lat: 41.8300, lon: -87.6338, dome: false, name: 'Guaranteed Rate Field' },
+  CLE: { lat: 41.4962, lon: -81.6852, dome: false, name: 'Progressive Field' },
+  DET: { lat: 42.3390, lon: -83.0485, dome: false, name: 'Comerica Park' },
+  KC:  { lat: 39.0517, lon: -94.4803, dome: false, name: 'Kauffman Stadium' },
+  MIN: { lat: 44.9817, lon: -93.2778, dome: false, name: 'Target Field' },
+  // AL West
+  HOU: { lat: 29.7572, lon: -95.3553, dome: true,  name: 'Minute Maid Park' },
+  LAA: { lat: 33.8003, lon: -117.8827, dome: false, name: 'Angel Stadium' },
+  OAK: { lat: 37.7516, lon: -122.2005, dome: false, name: 'Oakland Coliseum' },
+  SEA: { lat: 47.5914, lon: -122.3324, dome: true,  name: 'T-Mobile Park' }, // retractable
+  TEX: { lat: 32.7475, lon: -97.0822, dome: true,  name: 'Globe Life Field' }, // retractable
+  // NL East
+  ATL: { lat: 33.8908, lon: -84.4678, dome: false, name: 'Truist Park' },
+  MIA: { lat: 25.7781, lon: -80.2197, dome: true,  name: 'loanDepot park' }, // retractable
+  NYM: { lat: 40.7571, lon: -73.8458, dome: false, name: 'Citi Field' },
+  PHI: { lat: 39.9061, lon: -75.1665, dome: false, name: 'Citizens Bank Park' },
+  WSH: { lat: 38.8730, lon: -77.0074, dome: false, name: 'Nationals Park' },
+  // NL Central
+  CHC: { lat: 41.9484, lon: -87.6553, dome: false, name: 'Wrigley Field' },
+  CIN: { lat: 39.0975, lon: -84.5067, dome: false, name: 'Great American Ball Park' },
+  MIL: { lat: 43.0280, lon: -87.9712, dome: true,  name: 'American Family Field' }, // retractable
+  PIT: { lat: 40.4469, lon: -80.0058, dome: false, name: 'PNC Park' },
+  STL: { lat: 38.6226, lon: -90.1928, dome: false, name: 'Busch Stadium' },
+  // NL West
+  ARI: { lat: 33.4453, lon: -112.0667, dome: true,  name: 'Chase Field' }, // retractable
+  COL: { lat: 39.7559, lon: -104.9942, dome: false, name: 'Coors Field' },
+  LAD: { lat: 34.0739, lon: -118.2400, dome: false, name: 'Dodger Stadium' },
+  SD:  { lat: 32.7073, lon: -117.1566, dome: false, name: 'Petco Park' },
+  SF:  { lat: 37.7786, lon: -122.3893, dome: false, name: 'Oracle Park' },
+});
+
+function normalizeCode(code) {
+  if (!code) return null;
+  return String(code).trim().toUpperCase();
+}
+
+function getMlbVenue(teamCode) {
+  const code = normalizeCode(teamCode);
+  if (!code) return null;
+  return MLB_VENUES[code] || null;
+}
+
+// ---- World Cup 2026 ----
+// Sourced from src/data/worldcup2026.js (the canonical list of host
+// venues + altitudes). Added lat/lon + dome flag here to keep the
+// weather-fetch path independent of the i18n/altitude consumer.
+const WC_VENUES = Object.freeze({
+  'MetLife Stadium':         { lat: 40.8135, lon: -74.0746, dome: false },
+  'AT&T Stadium':            { lat: 32.7473, lon: -97.0945, dome: true  }, // retractable
+  'SoFi Stadium':            { lat: 33.9535, lon: -118.3392, dome: true }, // partial roof
+  'Hard Rock Stadium':       { lat: 25.9580, lon: -80.2389, dome: false },
+  'Lincoln Financial Field': { lat: 39.9008, lon: -75.1675, dome: false },
+  'Lumen Field':             { lat: 47.5952, lon: -122.3316, dome: false },
+  'Gillette Stadium':        { lat: 42.0909, lon: -71.2643, dome: false },
+  'Mercedes-Benz Stadium':   { lat: 33.7553, lon: -84.4006, dome: true  }, // retractable
+  'NRG Stadium':             { lat: 29.6847, lon: -95.4107, dome: true  }, // retractable
+  'Arrowhead Stadium':       { lat: 39.0489, lon: -94.4839, dome: false },
+  'BC Place':                { lat: 49.2768, lon: -123.1116, dome: true }, // retractable
+  'BMO Field':               { lat: 43.6332, lon: -79.4185, dome: false },
+  'Estadio Azteca':          { lat: 19.3030, lon: -99.1503, dome: false },
+  'Estadio BBVA':            { lat: 25.6692, lon: -100.2444, dome: false },
+  'Estadio Akron':           { lat: 20.6817, lon: -103.4625, dome: false },
+  "Levi's Stadium":          { lat: 37.4032, lon: -121.9698, dome: false },
+});
+
+function getWcVenueCoords(name) {
+  if (!name) return null;
+  return WC_VENUES[name] || null;
+}
+
+module.exports = {
+  MLB_VENUES,
+  WC_VENUES,
+  getMlbVenue,
+  getWcVenueCoords,
+  __internals: { normalizeCode },
+};