Reconcile the record: STATE.md header + Model Train arc 1 spec (docs only)
Arc 1 (7a925f4) shipped without a spec and without a STATE.md entry — the plan lived only in a session context that was lost. Both written from the code on disk, not from memory. - STATE.md: header was stale at a8e383e; now7a925f4(pushed, NOT yet deploy-fingerprinted). New top section records de-vig + EV + takeable/ value gates + hero v2 + the value triplet, the real config values, and the 274/3289 -> 276/3306 test baseline. - specs/model-train.md (NEW, per CLAUDE.md rule #1): every knob and its ACTUAL default (TAKEABLE_ODDS_CEILING -160, TAKEABLE_ODDS_MAX +200, VALUE_EV_THRESHOLD 2, JUICE_ODDS_FLOOR -400, RARE_EVENT_LINE_MAX 0.5); the gate AS BUILT (flat price-only refusal at -400 pre-feature, NOT edge-aware, no -250 wall; the -160..+200 band never refuses a grade and is enforced on the hero alone); the triplet + hero v2; and a checklist of what is NOT built. Recorded honestly rather than assumed: EDGE_FLEX_WALL, HARD_JUICE_WALL, LADDER_ODDS_MAX and MIN_RUNG_PROBABILITY do not exist in the codebase; no frontend reads ev_pct/fair_odds/model_odds/book_odds/suppressed_reason yet; the value fields are ungated to free tier; a second EV implementation (processing/EVCalculator.js) still coexists with devig.evPct. No engine code touched. Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.8 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com> Claude-Session: https://claude.ai/code/session_01SmNjJAwEnqHPtXbvSZR8kA
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# MODEL TRAIN — VALUE ENGINE
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**Status:** Arc 1 (steps 1–6) SHIPPED on main `7a925f4` (2026-07-19). Arcs 2+ OPEN.
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**Written retroactively** (2026-07-19) per CLAUDE.md rule #1 — Arc 1 was built from a
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plan that lived only in a session context that was lost. Everything in the "SHIPPED"
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sections below was read off the code ON DISK, not from that plan or from memory.
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**Doctrine (Kev):** VYNDR promotes bets people actually take — roughly the **−160 to
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+200** band — that ALSO carry a genuine vig-free edge. Not plus-money-only, not heavy
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chalk. *Grade* answers "is this a good read"; *value* answers "does the price pay you."
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They are separate fields and must stay separate.
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---
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## 1. WHAT ARC 1 SHIPPED
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### 1.1 De-vig — `src/utils/devig.js` (new)
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Two-way **multiplicative** (proportional / normalized-implied-probability) de-vig.
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Each side's implied probability is divided by the sum of both; the sum's excess over 1
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is the `overround`. Method is recorded on the payload as `devig_method:'multiplicative'`.
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| Export | Behavior |
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|---|---|
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| `americanToImpliedProb(a)` | `+`: `100/(a+100)`; `−`: `−a/(−a+100)`. Null on non-finite or `0`. |
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| `americanToDecimal(a)` | Total-return multiple incl. stake. Null on non-finite or `0`. |
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| `impliedProbToAmerican(p)` | Null outside `(0,1)`. `p>0.5` → negative (favorite). |
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| `devigTwoWay(overOdds, underOdds)` | `{method, overround, over:{fair_prob,fair_odds}, under:{…}}`. **Returns `null` if EITHER side is missing/invalid** — fair values are never synthesized from one side. |
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| `evPct(modelProb, american)` | `modelProb × decimal − 1`, as a percentage rounded to **one decimal**. Null on bad input. |
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Rounding: probabilities/overround to 3 dp (`round3`); `ev_pct` to 1 dp.
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### 1.2 Config knobs — the ACTUAL values on disk
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**`src/config/valueEngine.js`** (new — the promotion gates):
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| Knob | Env var | Default in code | Meaning |
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|---|---|---|---|
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| `TAKEABLE_ODDS_CEILING` | `TAKEABLE_ODDS_CEILING` | **−160** | Most-juiced favorite we will PROMOTE. |
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| `TAKEABLE_ODDS_MAX` | `TAKEABLE_ODDS_MAX` | **+200** | Longest dog we will PROMOTE. |
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| `VALUE_EV_THRESHOLD` | `VALUE_EV_THRESHOLD` | **2** (i.e. 2 % EV) | Minimum EV for the `value` flag. |
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- `isTakeable(american)` → `a >= −160 && a <= +200`. **Strict**: `null`, `''`,
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`undefined`, and non-finite are `false` (the `Number(null)===0` fabrication trap).
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- `isValue(american, evPct)` → `isTakeable(american) && Number.isFinite(evPct) && evPct >= 2`.
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**`src/config/rareEventMarkets.js`** (pre-existing, from the same-day rare-event work —
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the refusal layer that sits UNDERNEATH the promotion gates):
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| Knob | Env var | Default in code | Meaning |
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|---|---|---|---|
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| `JUICE_ODDS_FLOOR` | `JUICE_ODDS_FLOOR` | **−400** | Graded side at or past this price → **refused, not graded**. |
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| `RARE_EVENT_LINE_MAX` | — (constant) | **0.5** | Line at/below which the rare-event rules apply. |
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| `RARE_EVENT_STATS` | — (constant) | `doubles, triples, home_runs, stolen_bases, steals, blocks` | Backup list for props with NO odds. |
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**Knobs that DO NOT EXIST** (verified by grep across `src/`, `web/src/`, `tests/`):
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`TAKEABLE_CEILING` (real name is `TAKEABLE_ODDS_CEILING`), `EDGE_FLEX_WALL`,
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`HARD_JUICE_WALL`, `LADDER_ODDS_MAX`, `MIN_RUNG_PROBABILITY`. If those were in the
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original plan, they are **unbuilt** — see §3.
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### 1.3 What the gate ACTUALLY does today
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Reported as-built, not as-designed. There are **two independent layers**, and only the
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first one can refuse a grade:
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**Layer A — the refusal wall (`JUICE_ODDS_FLOOR`, −400).** In `analyzeViaEngine1`, the
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FIRST thing that happens — before `computeFeaturesForProp`, before any projection:
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```
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if (isTooJuiced(rawProp)) → suppressedRareResult('juiced_no_edge')
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```
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Characteristics of the shipped behavior:
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- **A flat price wall, NOT edge-aware.** It looks only at the graded side's American
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price. No EV, no projection, no edge, no flex band participates in the decision.
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- **The wall is −400, not −250.** There is no −250 constant anywhere in the codebase.
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- It runs **pre-feature**, so a refused prop costs zero feature computation.
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- Odds absent → `isTooJuiced` is `false` (can't judge from a price that isn't there);
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the structural `RARE_EVENT_STATS` rule is the backup for that case.
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- Output is a refusal, not a bad grade: `grade:null`, `insufficient_data:true`,
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`suppressed:true`, `suppressed_reason:'juiced_no_edge'`, plus branded "No read —…"
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copy in `reasoning.summary`.
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The other two refusals in the same family: `rare_event_under` (rare stat, under, line
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≤ 0.5 — pre-feature, needs no projection) and `rare_event_over_below_line` (rare stat,
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over, line ≤ 0.5, and the model does NOT project above the line — checked after the
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projection exists).
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**Layer B — the takeable band (−160 … +200).** This gate **never refuses a grade**.
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It is a *promotion* filter, applied only where a read is featured:
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- Today its ONLY enforcement point is `heroPropService.pickHeroProp`
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(`if (!isTakeable(g.book_odds)) continue`).
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- Every graded read still carries `takeable` / `value` as flags for consumers.
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- The full board shows every graded read regardless of band. Parlay Lab is exempt by
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design (juiced legs combine into takeable payouts).
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So: **edge-aware promotion, price-only refusal.** The `-400` wall decides what gets
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graded; EV + the `−160/+200` band decide what gets promoted.
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### 1.4 The value triplet
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Attached in `analyzeViaEngine1`'s existing p_win/Kelly `try` block (so it inherits the
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"real quantile probability × real book odds, or nothing" rule, and the whole block is
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additive — a throw never breaks the read):
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| Field | Source | Absent when |
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|---|---|---|
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| `book_odds` | the graded side's actual price (`under_odds` if under, else `over_odds`) | no side odds |
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| `fair_odds`, `fair_prob` | `devigTwoWay(over, under)` for the graded side | **either** side unpriced |
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| `model_odds` | `impliedProbToAmerican(pWin)` | no quantile probability |
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| `overround`, `devig_method` | from the de-vig | either side unpriced |
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| `ev_pct` | `evPct(pWin, sideOdds)` | no pWin or no side odds |
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| `takeable` | `isTakeable(sideOdds)` | no side odds |
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| `value` | `isValue(sideOdds, ev)` | no ev |
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The intended render (Design's, not built): *"book −145 · vig-free −132 · model −110."*
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### 1.5 Hero v2 — `heroPropService`
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Old rule: largest `|projection − line|` among A/B candidates. **New rule:** among A/B
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candidates, keep only those with a finite `ev_pct` **and** a takeable `book_odds`, then
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take the **highest `ev_pct`**. The `gap` is still computed and returned for display, but
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it no longer selects. Empty-slate fallback (most recent real graded read, any grade, by
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timestamp) is unchanged. `toHero` now also passes through
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`ev_pct / value / takeable / book_odds / fair_odds / model_odds`.
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### 1.6 Distribution + tests
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- Fields ride the existing `...result` / `...data` spreads into `grades:{sport}`,
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`/api/snapshot/:sport`, `/api/hero-prop`, `/api/scan`. Documented in
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`BACKEND_HANDOFF.md` ("Value Engine fields").
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- `src/utils/tierGating.js` deletes `alt_lines` (below Desk) and `kelly` (below the
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Kelly tier). It does **not** touch the value fields — `ev_pct`, `value`, `takeable`,
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and the triplet are currently visible to **every tier including free**. That is an
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unmade product decision, not a verified choice (see §3).
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- Suite: **276 suites / 3306 tests**, green, `next build` exit 0. New:
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`tests/unit/devig.test.js`, `tests/unit/valueEngine.test.js`;
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`tests/unit/heroPropService.test.js` rewritten for the EV rule.
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---
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## 2. LAWS THIS TRAIN INHERITS (do not relax)
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- **Absent beats wrong.** One side unpriced → `fair_odds` is absent, never
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extrapolated. No price → `takeable` is absent, not `false`-by-coercion.
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- **`Number(null) === 0`** is the standing fabrication bug of this codebase. Every new
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numeric path gets a strict guard (`valueEngine.isTakeable` is the model).
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- **Grade ≠ value.** An A read with `value:false` is honest output: right read, price
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gone. Never let the value flag re-letter a grade.
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- **Refusal is a product surface**, not an error. Refused reads carry branded copy.
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- Market values are REAL book numbers at a timestamp; only projection / grade / edge /
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EV / fair price are model output and must be labeled MODEL.
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---
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## 3. NOT YET BUILT — checklist to reconcile against the full arc list
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Verified absent from the codebase as of `7a925f4`. Kev supplies the complete arc list;
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mark each done/open against this.
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**Engine / gates**
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- [ ] Edge-aware juice wall — a soft/flex band where a big enough edge can survive a
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juiced price (`EDGE_FLEX_WALL`, `HARD_JUICE_WALL` — neither exists; today's wall
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is the single flat `JUICE_ODDS_FLOOR` −400).
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- [ ] `TAKEABLE_ODDS_*` enforced on any surface beyond the daily hero (featured rows,
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top-of-board, alerts). Today: hero only.
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- [ ] Alt-line ladder value gates (`LADDER_ODDS_MAX`, `MIN_RUNG_PROBABILITY` — neither
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exists). The ladder in `analyzeViaEngine1` is still the S62 build: fixed shifts
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`[−1, −0.5, 0, +0.5, +1]`, filtered to `line > 0`, sorted by `edge_pct`. It has
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**no odds ceiling and no per-rung probability floor**, and its rungs carry no
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`ev_pct` / `fair_odds` / price at all.
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- [ ] EV-rank the board itself. `slateAdapter.flattenToEdgeBoard` still ranks on
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`edge` (guarded by `EDGE_BOARD_SANE_MAX = 40`), not `ev_pct`.
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- [ ] Reconcile the orphan `src/services/processing/EVCalculator.js` (a separate,
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older EV path used only by `UnifiedOddsProvider`) against `devig.evPct` — two EV
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implementations currently coexist.
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- [ ] Multi-way / three-way de-vig, and alternatives to multiplicative (Shin,
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power/log). Two-way multiplicative is the only method implemented.
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- [ ] Best-price de-vig across books (today the triplet de-vigs whichever single
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book's two-sided price came through on the prop).
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**Surfaces (nothing on the frontend reads these fields yet — grep-verified zero hits
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for `ev_pct` / `fair_odds` / `model_odds` / `book_odds` / `suppressed_reason` under
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`web/src/`)**
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- [ ] Value triplet rendered on the reveal card / board row / hero.
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- [ ] VALUE marker (and the honest "A but no value" state).
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- [ ] Visible-refusal moment — the "No read —…" copy is generated and shipped on the
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payload but is not displayed anywhere.
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- [ ] EV shown as the headline number instead of / alongside edge %.
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**Product / policy**
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- [ ] Tier policy for the value fields — currently ungated to free (§1.6).
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- [ ] Alerts on takeable +EV reads (the config comment anticipates "future alerts").
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- [ ] Ledger/record split by `value` (does the model's +EV subset beat its overall
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record?). `ledger_entries` stores no EV or fair price today.
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- [ ] Settlement/CLV interaction with fair price — CLV is still locked-vs-closing
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LINE, not vs closing FAIR price. (Note: **C4 — CLV capture is broken** and
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suppressed on public surfaces; see `specs/audit-data/clv-capture-broken.md`.
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Any fair-price CLV work is blocked behind C4.)
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**Verification debt**
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- [ ] Arc 1 is **not deploy-fingerprinted**. Post-deploy, confirm `/api/hero-prop`
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returns a hero with a takeable `book_odds` and a finite `ev_pct`, and that
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`/api/snapshot/mlb` grades carry the triplet.
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- [ ] Known upstream contamination: **`specs/audit-data/mlb-grade-degradation.md`** —
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projection == 0 on ~9/25 MLB grades and a broken `edge_pct` scale. EV is
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computed from the quantile probability, not from `edge_pct`, so it is not
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directly poisoned — but hero ranking and any EV-vs-edge comparison sit on top of
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that pipeline. Fix the degradation before trusting arc-1 numbers in aggregate.
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---
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*Arc 1 recorded 2026-07-19 from the code at `7a925f4`. Update this file in the same
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commit as any arc that ships.*
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