Power-derive the LODO threshold: hits restored through the gate, rbi/runs

routed as date-driven

PHASE 0 — threshold derived BLIND, before any stat was re-read. A
reversal is informative only if that date's Brier delta is
distinguishable from zero at its row count. Per-row Brier difference
d_i = (pc-y)^2 - (p-y)^2, so SE(n) = SD(d)/sqrt(n) and
n* = (SD(d)/|effect|)^2. Pooled across all four stats so no single
stat's verdict could shape the threshold deciding it:

  pooled rows 3,417 | SD(d) 0.09816 | |effect| 0.01175
  n* = (0.09816/0.01175)^2 = 69.8 -> 70

The hand-chosen 20 sat at 0.54 SE -- a coin flip. That is the defect
this removes, and why the previous verdict moved with the number.
Committed as calibrationRegistry.LODO_MIN_HELD_ROWS = 70 with
LODO_THRESHOLD_BASIS; a test recomputes (SD/effect)^2 and asserts it
equals the constant, so it cannot drift from its own justification. The
derivation script prints no stat verdict, no date and no reversal.

PHASE 1 — LODO at n*, applied cold:

  hits         5 informative drops, 0 reversals   PASS
  total_bases  4 informative drops, 0 reversals   PASS
  rbi          reverses 2026-08-01 (n=99)         FAIL
  runs         reverses 08-01 (n=86), 08-05 (244) FAIL

hits held-out deltas -0.0041/-0.0080/-0.0192/-0.0140/-0.0139 across
123-272 row dates, favourite sign holding on every testable drop. THIS IS
THE INSTRUMENT FINALLY POWERED, NOT VINDICATION OF A PREDICTION -- the
withdrawal at 6ae11f1 was correct on the instrument available then, which
admitted 20- and 25-row dates as evidence. Nothing about hits changed;
the threshold stopped being chosen.

PHASE 2 — both failures are DATE-DRIVEN, not underpowered. Every
reversal sits above n*=70 (99, 86, 244), so no threshold and no further
accrual rescues either: isotonic is fitting day-structure. Routed to the
low-parameter calibrator queue (Platt/beta), not built here.

PHASE 3 — CALIBRATION_DEPLOYED is now ['hits','total_bases'], frozen and
tested, both PROVISIONAL with auto-demotion armed and the >=40
date-cluster promotion bar unchanged. hits stackability for
chain.chainAcross is RESTORED, and the record shows it returned through
the powered gate rather than by fiat. hits bands rebuilt on
p_win_calibrated (765 eval rows): every archetype still one band, still
base_rate -- calibrated YES, proven-per-archetype NO.

PHASE 4 logged: the deploy set is now set by a power-derived,
pre-committed, tested constant rather than an operator-chosen number. At
6ae11f1 that rule moved the live path AGAINST the operator; it has now
moved it back on the same evidence because the instrument changed. Both
directions are the rule working. And calibrated p_win separates within
archetype no better than raw across 13 archetype slots on two deployed
stats -- per-archetype separation will come from proven factors or not at
all.

p_win never mutated; no Bonferroni slot consumed; counter and frozen
clusters verified byte-identical file by file.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>
Claude-Session: https://claude.ai/code/session_01W1sivYNqY2TS5ftykmHBU9

scripts/lodo-calibration.js

@@ -38,8 +38,14 @@ const STATS = ['hits', 'total_bases', 'rbi', 'runs'];
 const PAGE = 1000;
 /** The favourite bucket where the over-prediction concentrates. */
 const FAVOURITE_FLOOR = 0.9;
-/** Minimum rows on a held-out date for that drop to be informative. */
-const MIN_HELD_ROWS = 20;
+/**
+ * Minimum rows on a held-out date for that drop to be informative.
+ *
+ * POWER-DERIVED AND PRE-COMMITTED (n* = 70). Not chosen here, and not tunable
+ * from here -- it is imported so the value that decides the verdicts cannot be
+ * edited alongside them.
+ */
+const { LODO_MIN_HELD_ROWS: MIN_HELD_ROWS } = require('../src/services/model/calibrationRegistry');
 
 const FIELD = { hits: (b) => b.hits, total_bases: (b) => b.totalBases, rbi: (b) => b.rbi, runs: (b) => b.runs };
 const mean = (xs) => (xs.length ? xs.reduce((a, b) => a + b, 0) / xs.length : null);