diff --git a/specs/hits-v1-binomial.md b/specs/hits-v1-binomial.md
index e56e6d1..f7ffdaf 100644
--- a/specs/hits-v1-binomial.md
+++ b/specs/hits-v1-binomial.md
@@ -293,3 +293,48 @@ Supabase project ref (`zmdnczhtdxcddszxttub`; the real ref is
 unaffected — the deployed API and the MCP connection both use the correct ref.
 The holdout was run with an explicit `SUPABASE_URL` override rather than editing
 your credentials file.
+
+## 11. POST-DEPLOY FINGERPRINT — armed, PENDING (blocked upstream, not by this change)
+
+Deployed 2026-08-02 ~23:05 UTC (the API 502'd and returned at 23:05:35, right
+after the push). The **prod-write fingerprint has NOT landed yet**, and the
+reason is upstream of this work:
+
+```
+POST /api/internal/snapshot/mlb  ->  {"status":"error","gradeCount":0,
+                                      "reason":"Odds data temporarily unavailable"}
+GET  /api/odds/mlb               ->  HTTP 429
+GET  /api/internal/snapshot/status -> overdue: true, mlb last 2026-08-02T07:30:46Z
+```
+
+**The odds provider is quota-exhausted (429), so the pipeline cannot grade a
+slate at all.** The MLB board has been frozen since 07:30 UTC and the 14/19/22
+UTC cron slots all failed the same way — every one of them before this change was
+deployed. hits-v1 is inside the snapshot's existing try/catch and is purely
+additive; it cannot be the cause, and there were zero grades for it to attach to.
+
+If PropLine's quota resets at 00:00 UTC, the 01:00 UTC cron slot should be the
+first successful run. The fingerprint to confirm hits-v1 is writing in prod:
+
+```sql
+select count(*)                                        rows_today,
+       count(proj_hits_p_over)                         hits_v1_written,
+       round(avg(proj_hits_p_over)::numeric, 3)        mean_p,
+       count(*) filter (where proj_hits_meta->'market'->>'market_takeable' = 'true')  takeable,
+       count(*) filter (where proj_hits_meta->'market'->>'within_promotion_band' = 'false') outside_band
+from public.ledger_entries
+where sport = 'mlb' and user_id is null and stat = 'hits'
+  and graded_at > now() - interval '6 hours';
+```
+
+Expected on a healthy run, from the live-board verification in §7: `hits_v1_written`
+at roughly 99% of `rows_today`, and a substantial `outside_band` count that was
+modelled anyway.
+
+**Firing itself is already verified** — §7 ran the production `attachProjection`
+over the real production snapshot payload and got 158/159. What is pending is
+only the confirmation that the deployed process writes the columns, which needs a
+slate the pipeline can actually fetch.
+
+**Flagged for its own order, out of scope here:** the odds quota exhaustion is a
+live production outage of the whole grading pipeline, not a hits problem.