runs + RBI: mostly-base-rate confirmed, and one level deeper than expected
Nothing proved. For RBI even the ARCHETYPE split is theatre, so the honest grade is the POOLED base rate. PREMISE NOTE: the order's closing line says the batter board is per-archetype-graded after this. Nothing has been rescaled for hits or total_bases either -- no archetype slot has ever reached sample and gradeBands remains built, gated and unwired. This is the fourth stat measured, not the completion of three. AUDIT: RBI 935 clean / 43 games; RUNS 617 clean / 33 games. Zero quarantined. No archetype slot reaches 500 -- and the signature archetypes the order names are the two SMALLEST slots on the board, RBI->DRIVER at n=24 and runs->CATALYST at n=9. RUNS is refused structurally before any factor is tested: 33 game clusters against a 40 floor. INPUTS RECONSTRUCTED rather than declared missing. lineup_context only covers 08-04 onward while settled rows start 07-31, so 187/617 runs rows joined. But the play-by-play cache runs from 05-01 and the batting order IS the order batters first appear -- slot, power-behind and reach-base all rebuilt point-in-time, coverage 187 -> 574. RBI, all THEATER: risp_opportunity +0.0047, extra_base_skill +0.0010, risp x extra_base +0.0056. RUNS, all refused on clusters and all pointing the wrong way: +0.0043 / +0.0008 / +0.0054. THE COMPOUND IS THE WORST VERSION IN BOTH STATS. The causally-correct compound was the most promising factor on the sheet and is the most harmful in each. Two multipliers that individually carry nothing do not cancel -- they compound each other's noise. Distinct from the collapsed-sequence lesson: there the product of two REAL effects was too small to use; here the product of two NULL effects is worse than either. THE ARCHETYPE DOES NOT RESCUE IT, and this is where the session nearly went wrong. The base rates look strongly differentiated (RBI DRIVER 0.609 vs BOMBER 0.413; runs GHOST 0.716 vs BOMBER 0.460). Gated directly against the pooled base rate: RBI +0.0010 CI [-0.0034,+0.0050] THEATER; runs -0.0028 CI [-0.0147,+0.0108] candidate at k=33. DRIVER's 0.609 is n=23 -- small-slot noise wearing a decimal point. Read off the table instead of gated, this would have shipped as "archetype differentiation is real and large". It is not. THE CROSS-STAT PATTERN THAT IS REAL -- the counter over-predicts every batter counting stat measured: total_bases p_win 0.5698 vs actual 0.5074 bias +0.0624 rbi p_win 0.4860 vs actual 0.4313 bias +0.0547 runs p_win 0.5949 vs actual 0.5749 bias +0.0200 Across four stats and three sessions, calibration is the systematic defect and factor scarcity is not. TB's held-out isotonic fix (-0.0039) still outperforms every factor tried on any stat, all null or theatre. NO RESCALE. Nothing proved, nothing certified calibrated, no slot at sample, and for RBI the archetype split is itself theatre -- so the honest band is the pooled base rate, which gradeBands returns by construction. Counter and frozen clusters byte-identical. Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com> Claude-Session: https://claude.ai/code/session_01W1sivYNqY2TS5ftykmHBU9
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# runs + RBI — mostly-base-rate confirmed, and stronger than expected
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**Nothing proved. For RBI even the ARCHETYPE split is theatre, so the honest
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grade is the POOLED base rate.** The order anticipated that mostly-base-rate
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would be the correct answer for context-heavy stats. It is, and one level deeper
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than predicted.
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## Premise note
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The order's closing line says the batter board is "per-archetype-graded" after
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this. It is not: **nothing has been rescaled for hits or total_bases either** —
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no archetype slot has ever reached sample, and `gradeBands` remains built, gated
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and unwired. This is the fourth stat measured, not the completion of three.
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---
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## STEP 1 — Full-history audit
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| | clean | with p_win | players | dates | **games** | lines |
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|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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| RBI | 935 | 931 | 344 | 5 | **43** | 0.5 on 885 |
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| RUNS | 617 | 614 | 334 | 5 | **33** | 0.5 on all |
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Zero quarantined in either. **No archetype slot reaches 500.**
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| archetype | RBI n | RUNS n |
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|---|---|---|
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| UNLABELLED | 546 | 341 |
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| BOMBER | 207 | 148 |
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| GHOST | 92 | 67 |
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| BRUSH | 43 | 26 |
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| **DRIVER** | **24** | 20 |
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| **CATALYST** | 13 | **9** |
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**The signature archetypes the order names are the two smallest slots on the
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board** — RBI→DRIVER at n=24, runs→CATALYST at n=9. The hypothesis is reasonable
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and we are three orders of magnitude from being able to test it.
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**RUNS is refused structurally before any factor is tested: 33 game clusters
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against a 40 floor.** Reported as such rather than dressed up as a factor result.
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## Inputs reconstructed rather than declared missing
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`lineup_context` only covers 2026-08-04/05/06 (ingest began last week) while
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settled rows start 07-31, so just 187 of 617 runs rows join to a batting order.
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That reads as input-blocked — but the play-by-play cache runs from 05-01, and
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**the batting order IS the order batters first appear.** Batting slot, power
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behind (mean barrel of the next three slots) and reach-base rate were all
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reconstructed point-in-time from it: coverage went 187 → 574.
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---
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## STEP 2/3 — The gate (153 / 168 cumulative tests)
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### RBI — all THEATER
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| factor | n | clusters | shift | Brier Δ | CI | verdict |
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|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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| `risp_opportunity` | 803 | 43 | 0.0585 | **+0.0047** | [−0.0023, +0.0122] | **THEATER** |
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| `extra_base_skill` | 881 | 43 | 0.0271 | **+0.0010** | [−0.0023, +0.0042] | **THEATER** |
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| `risp × extra_base` | 803 | 43 | 0.0624 | **+0.0056** | [−0.0042, +0.0135] | **THEATER** |
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### RUNS — all refused on cluster count, all pointing the wrong way
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| factor | n | clusters | shift | Brier Δ | verdict |
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|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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| `reach_base` | 525 | 32 | 0.0383 | +0.0043 | PENDING — k<40 |
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| `lineup_power_behind` | 574 | 32 | 0.0232 | +0.0008 | PENDING — k<40 |
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| `reach × power_behind` | 525 | 32 | 0.0482 | +0.0054 | PENDING — k<40 |
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### The compound is the WORST version, in both stats
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RBI: 0.0047 / 0.0010 → **0.0056** compounded. RUNS: 0.0043 / 0.0008 →
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**0.0054** compounded.
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The causally-correct compound was the most promising factor on the sheet and is
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the most harmful in both. Two multipliers that individually carry nothing do not
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cancel — they compound each other's noise. Related to but distinct from the
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collapsed-sequence lesson: there the product of two REAL effects was too small to
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use; here the product of two NULL effects is actively worse than either.
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---
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## The archetype itself does not rescue it
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The archetype base rates look strongly differentiated, and that appearance is
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most of the trap:
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| | RBI | RUNS |
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|---|---|---|
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| DRIVER | **0.609** (n=23) | 0.500 (n=20) |
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| GHOST | 0.467 | **0.716** (n=67) |
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| BOMBER | 0.413 | 0.460 |
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| pooled | 0.4305 | 0.5721 |
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Tested directly — is the archetype's leave-one-out base rate better than the
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pooled one?
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| | shift | Brier Δ | CI | verdict |
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|---|---|---|---|---|
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| **RBI** | 0.0231 | +0.0010 | [−0.0034, +0.0050] | **THEATER** |
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| **RUNS** | 0.0642 | −0.0028 | [−0.0147, +0.0108] | CANDIDATE — k=33 |
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**For RBI, knowing the archetype makes the forecast worse.** DRIVER's 0.609 is
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n=23 — the spread is small-slot noise wearing a decimal point. Runs is at least
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directionally favourable, and unproven.
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Had this been read off the base-rate table instead of gated, the session would
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have shipped "archetype differentiation is real and large" as a finding. It is
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not one.
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---
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## The cross-stat pattern that IS real
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| stat | mean p_win | actual | counter bias |
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|---|---|---|---|
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| total_bases | 0.5698 | 0.5074 | **+0.0624** |
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| RBI | 0.4860 | 0.4313 | **+0.0547** |
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| runs | 0.5949 | 0.5749 | **+0.0200** |
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**The counter over-predicts every batter counting stat measured.** Across four
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stats and three sessions, calibration is the systematic defect and factor
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scarcity is not — TB's held-out isotonic fix (−0.0039 Brier) still outperforms
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every factor tried on any stat, all of which have been null or theatre.
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## STEP 4 — No rescale
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Two-bar rule: nothing proved, nothing certified calibrated, no slot at sample —
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and for RBI the archetype split is itself theatre, so the honest band is the
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POOLED base rate rather than a per-archetype one. `gradeBands` returns exactly
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that by construction.
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## Next, by value
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1. **Calibrate the counter across all four stats.** One systematic bias,
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measured four times, larger than anything else on the board.
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2. **Stop adding factors to context stats.** Six tested across runs/RBI, six
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null-or-worse, and the compounds worst of all.
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3. Runs needs game-date accrual to clear the cluster floor before it can be
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gated at all.
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Counter and frozen clusters byte-identical.
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