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Ledger takeable tagging (deferred C2); efficiency challenger BLOCKED

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Champion grade UNCHANGED. Push scoring untouched. Additive tags only — nothing
deleted, nothing re-settled.

PART A — THE EFFICIENCY CHALLENGER: BLOCKED, NOT BUILT.
Review Zero came back ABSENT on all three inputs:
  0.1 efficiency scores DO NOT EXIST (zero occurrences of market_efficiency /
      marketEfficiency / efficiency_score in src/ or web/src/).
  0.2 base thresholds DO NOT EXIST (engine1.js has zero `edge` references — the
      grade is not an edge-vs-threshold comparison; grade_thresholds.json holds
      PROBABILITY bands).
  0.3 the +/-0.05 additive efficiency nudge DOES NOT EXIST. The only 0.05s on
      the grade path are featureCache.teammate_absence_bump, a bvp_advantage
      cutoff, and p*0.9+0.05 inside probabilityEstimator (the 0.5*0.1 term of
      the shrink-toward-0.5). There is no additive scaling to replace.

So a challenger differing from the champion in EXACTLY ONE thing cannot be
constructed: there is no additive scaling to swap, no base threshold to
multiply, and engine1.js has zero `sport` references so market cannot reach the
grade. A threshold must exist first — that is R1 of
specs/full-output-grade-mapping.md, an explicitly held separate order. Shipping
R1+R4 together would make the Phase-3 delta report misleading: the re-letter
would be driven mostly by switching to probability grading while being
presented as the efficiency fix.

0.4 coverage: the spec names 5 scores; the live ledger has 11 markets and only
MLB total_bases maps to one. 9 of 11 have no score, so "all scored markets"
cannot be satisfied without inventing 9 numbers.

PART B — LEDGER TAKEABLE TAGGING: BUILT (the deferred C2).
New src/config/takeableStandard.js: floor on the minus side, UNCAPPED plus.
Deliberately NOT valueEngine.isTakeable (the -160..+200 PROMOTION band) — a
+400 prop is not promotable but IS takeable; a test asserts the two diverge on
the plus side and agree at the floor so they can never quietly merge. Absent
price returns null, never false (Number(null) === 0 would tag a missing price
takeable). The floor is POLICY not derived (C1 could not derive one) and is
labelled so; each row records takeable_floor so a re-derivation can re-tag.

Migration 034 (applied + tracked): ledger_entries.takeable boolean +
takeable_floor numeric, nullable, partial index. Forward tagging in
ledgerService at row build; backfill in one statement.
Result: 1254 rows, 1246 tagged (781 takeable / 465 below floor), 8 NULL with
null_despite_price = 0 (the NULLs are genuinely priceless rows). Settled 1163
and graded 1254 unchanged.

PART C — the model-version boundary tag is DELIBERATELY NOT APPLIED: no scaling
change shipped, so no boundary exists, and stamping one would mark a model
transition that never happened. modelEras.js is its home when a real one lands.

Floor: 312 suites / 3890 tests green (8 new), web build exit 0.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>
Claude-Session: https://claude.ai/code/session_01QJs13VsyiSKYQP6rj3NNmc
This commit is contained in:
Kev
2026-07-31 00:19:13 -04:00
parent a6afac43cc
commit 2bfaeff572
6 changed files with 292 additions and 1 deletions
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src/config/takeableStandard.js
+52
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@@ -0,0 +1,52 @@
'use strict';
/**
* THE LEDGER TAKEABLE STANDARD (2026-07-31, specs/takeable-tagging.md).
*
* 🔴 THIS IS NOT `config/valueEngine.isTakeable` AND MUST NOT BE CONFLATED WITH IT.
* They answer different questions and have DIFFERENT shapes:
*
* valueEngine.isTakeable — the PROMOTION BAND, -160..+200 (BOUNDED BOTH ENDS).
* "Which reads may we put on the hero / top of board?"
* It caps the plus side deliberately: a +400 longshot is
* not something we promote as the read of the day.
*
* THIS module — the LEDGER RECORD STANDARD: a FLOOR on the minus side,
* **UNCAPPED on the plus side** (founder-ratified shape).
* "Was this a price a bettor could actually have taken?"
* Plus-money is where genuine edge and ladder calls live,
* so it gets no ceiling.
*
* A +400 prop is NOT promotable but IS takeable. Both statements are true; keep the
* two functions separate.
*
* THE FLOOR IS A **POLICY** NUMBER, NOT A DERIVED ONE — say so wherever it surfaces.
* The C1 derivation (2026-07-30) could not derive a floor: on the clean population
* (296 decided MLB overs) EVERY price bucket's 95% ROI interval contained zero, the
* curve was non-monotone (the deepest buckets were the POSITIVE ones), and resolving a
* 5-point edge needs 661-2,285 rows per bucket against actual bucket sizes of 8-71.
* So -160 is inherited policy, held because it is directionally the better half of the
* only comparison available (in-band ROI +3.84% vs out-of-band -0.04%, both intervals
* spanning zero). Rows record the floor they were tagged under so a future
* re-derivation can re-tag safely.
*
* RE-DERIVATION TRIGGER: any negative price bucket reaching n >= 300, or the end of the
* MLB regular season, whichever comes first — and adopt a DERIVED floor only when a
* bucket's 95% CI excludes zero.
*/
/** Provisional policy floor (American odds). Env-tunable; changing it does NOT
* retroactively re-tag — `takeable_floor` on each row records what it was tagged under. */
const LEDGER_TAKEABLE_FLOOR = Number(process.env.LEDGER_TAKEABLE_FLOOR || -160);
/** Is this a price a bettor could actually have taken? Floor on the minus side,
* UNCAPPED on the plus side. Strict on input — `Number(null) === 0` would otherwise
* land a MISSING price above the floor and tag it takeable. */
function isLedgerTakeable(american) {
if (american == null || american === '') return null; // absent, not false
const a = Number(american);
if (!Number.isFinite(a)) return null;
return a >= LEDGER_TAKEABLE_FLOOR;
}
module.exports = { LEDGER_TAKEABLE_FLOOR, isLedgerTakeable, FLOOR_IS_POLICY_NOT_DERIVED: true };
src/services/ledgerService.js
+14
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@@ -29,6 +29,10 @@
const { nameKey, normalizeName } = require('../utils/playerName');
const { settleResult, statValue, logRowOnDate } = require('./outcomeService');
// The LEDGER takeable standard (floor on the minus side, UNCAPPED plus) — a
// DIFFERENT question from valueEngine's -160..+200 promotion band. See
// config/takeableStandard.js for why the two must not be merged.
const { LEDGER_TAKEABLE_FLOOR, isLedgerTakeable: takeableFor } = require('../config/takeableStandard');
const CONFLICT = 'user_id,player_key,stat,line,side,game_id';
const UPSERT_CHUNK = 200;
@@ -236,6 +240,16 @@ function rowsFromSnapshot(sport, grades, oddsProps, nowIso) {
line,
side,
locked_odds: locked.odds != null ? String(locked.odds) : oddsForSide(prop, side),
// TAKEABLE TAG (2026-07-31, specs/takeable-tagging.md) — was this a price a
// bettor could actually have taken? FLOOR on the minus side, UNCAPPED plus.
// 🔴 NOT `valueEngine.isTakeable` (the -160..+200 PROMOTION band the hero and
// board rank on): a +400 prop is NOT promotable but IS takeable. Keep separate.
// The floor is POLICY, not derived (C1 could not derive one — every price
// bucket's ROI interval contained zero), so each row records the floor it was
// tagged under and a re-derivation can re-tag safely. Absent price → NULL, an
// honest absence, never false.
takeable: takeableFor(locked.odds != null ? locked.odds : oddsForSide(prop, side)),
takeable_floor: LEDGER_TAKEABLE_FLOOR,
book: (prop && prop.book) || g.book || null,
grade: g.grade,
edge: numOrNull(g.edge_pct),