diff --git a/scripts/build-grade-bands.js b/scripts/build-grade-bands.js new file mode 100644 index 0000000..2b95a74 --- /dev/null +++ b/scripts/build-grade-bands.js @@ -0,0 +1,100 @@ +#!/usr/bin/env node +'use strict'; + +/** + * build-grade-bands — publish what each letter actually means, per archetype. + * + * Runs the real settled ledger through gradeBands. Because no factor has passed + * the gate for any archetype, every band comes back a BASE-RATE read — which is + * the honest answer today, and the output states it rather than leaving a reader + * to infer it. + * + * SUPABASE_URL=... node scripts/build-grade-bands.js + */ + +require('dotenv').config(); +const { createClient } = require('@supabase/supabase-js'); +const gb = require('../src/services/model/gradeBands'); +const tl = require('../src/services/model/testLedger'); +const cal = require('../src/services/model/calibration'); +const { knownNumber } = require('../src/utils/known'); + +const SB_URL = process.env.SUPABASE_URL; +const SB_KEY = process.env.SUPABASE_SERVICE_ROLE_KEY || process.env.SUPABASE_SERVICE_KEY; +const STAT = process.env.BAND_STAT || 'hits'; +const PAGE = 1000; + +/** + * PROVEN, PER ARCHETYPE. Empty, and that is the measured state — see + * specs/per-archetype-re-audit.md. Nothing may be added here that has not + * cleared the gate FOR THAT ARCHETYPE; pooled proof does not qualify a slot. + */ +const PROVEN_BY_ARCHETYPE = Object.freeze({}); + +async function page(sb, table, select, apply) { + const out = []; + for (let from = 0; ; from += PAGE) { + const { data, error } = await apply(sb.from(table).select(select)).range(from, from + PAGE - 1); + if (error) throw error; + if (!data || data.length === 0) break; + out.push(...data); + if (data.length < PAGE) break; + } + return out; +} + +async function main() { + const sb = createClient(SB_URL, SB_KEY, { auth: { persistSession: false } }); + + const snaps = await page(sb, 'model_snapshots', 'player_key, game_date, archetype, stat', + (q) => q.eq('sport', 'mlb').eq('stat', STAT).not('archetype', 'is', null)); + const archOf = new Map(); + for (const s of snaps) archOf.set(`${s.player_key}|${s.game_date}`, s.archetype); + + const led = await page(sb, 'ledger_entries', 'player_key, game_date, outcome, p_win, quarantine_reason', + (q) => q.eq('sport', 'mlb').is('user_id', null).eq('stat', STAT) + .in('outcome', ['hit', 'miss']).not('p_win', 'is', null)); + const clean = led.filter((r) => !(r.quarantine_reason || '').startsWith('nontakeable_book')); + + const byArch = new Map(); + for (const r of clean) { + const a = String(archOf.get(`${r.player_key}|${r.game_date}`) || 'UNLABELLED').toUpperCase(); + if (!byArch.has(a)) byArch.set(a, []); + byArch.get(a).push({ p: knownNumber(r.p_win), won: r.outcome === 'hit' ? 1 : 0 }); + } + + const mc = await tl.recordAndCount(tl.supabaseStore(sb), + [...byArch.keys()].map((a) => ({ + sport: 'mlb', stat: STAT, archetype: a === 'UNLABELLED' ? null : a, + interaction: 'grade_band_lift', target: 'outcome', + }))); + + // Calibration is measured, not assumed. Today it is certified for hits only in + // a middle band (specs — held-out error 0.477->0.506, 0.587->0.580), which is + // NOT the same as an archetype's probabilities being calibrated. + const certified = typeof cal.certifyBands === 'function'; + + const out = []; + for (const [arch, rows] of [...byArch.entries()].sort((a, b) => b[1].length - a[1].length)) { + out.push(gb.buildBands(rows, { + archetype: arch, + cumulativeTests: mc.cumulative_tests, + proven: Boolean(PROVEN_BY_ARCHETYPE[arch]), + calibrated: false, // no archetype's distribution is certified calibrated + })); + } + + console.log(JSON.stringify({ + stat: STAT, + settled_rows: clean.length, + archetypes: byArch.size, + cumulative_tests: mc.cumulative_tests, + calibration_helper_present: certified, + proven_by_archetype: PROVEN_BY_ARCHETYPE, + note: 'every band is a BASE-RATE read — no factor has passed the gate for any archetype', + bands: out, + }, null, 2)); + process.exit(0); +} + +main().catch((e) => { console.error(e); process.exit(1); }); diff --git a/specs/per-archetype-grade-bands.md b/specs/per-archetype-grade-bands.md new file mode 100644 index 0000000..73118eb --- /dev/null +++ b/specs/per-archetype-grade-bands.md @@ -0,0 +1,126 @@ +# Per-archetype grade bands — built, gated, and not yet shippable + +**The rescale does not ship, for two independent reasons — and the second one is +new and more interesting than the first.** + +--- + +## 1. The premise, checked against the ledger + +`scripts/proven-status.js` (run fresh, not recalled): + +``` +PROVEN_SET: EMPTY — no stat has beaten the counter out-of-sample +archetype_x_stat_at_or_above_gate: [] +closest: BOMBER x hits n=471 (short 29) · GHOST x hits n=196 (short 304) +``` + +| the order states | measured | +|---|---| +| three proven causally-correct factors | **one.** `pitcher_contact_profile` CI upper bound is exactly `0.0000` (not proven); `platoon_severity` passes but is held on 4.5%-median-contaminated season-to-date splits | +| several now archetype-conditioned | **zero.** No archetype slot reaches n≥500 | +| "defense strong for GHOST/BRUSH, honestly-null for BOMBER" | measured the **opposite direction** — BOMBER −0.0036, GHOST −0.0024, both noise-dominated (specs/per-archetype-re-audit.md) | + +Pooled proof does not qualify a slot. `PROVEN_BY_ARCHETYPE` is `{}` and the band +builder reads it directly. + +--- + +## 2. The new finding: the grade does not separate within archetype + +This is the reason that matters, because it would block the rescale even if the +factors had proved. + +Published bands, full clean settled hits history (n=1,312, 106 cumulative tests): +**every archetype collapses to ONE band.** Bands merge when their corrected +intervals overlap, because publishing two letters we cannot tell apart is a +distinction we have not measured. + +Uncorrected, so the underlying ranking is visible rather than hidden by the bar: + +| archetype | n | base rate | quintiles (hi→lo) | corr(p_win, outcome) | bands @95% | +|---|---|---|---|---|---| +| **BOMBER** | 466 | 0.588 | 0.75 · 0.62 · 0.60 · 0.48 · 0.48 | **+0.207** | 2 — A 0.660 (n=279) vs B 0.481 (n=187), A shows lift | +| UNLABELLED | 490 | 0.539 | 0.66 · 0.53 · 0.58 · 0.51 · 0.41 | +0.155 | 2, no lift | +| **GHOST** | 192 | 0.578 | 0.47 · 0.63 · 0.74 · 0.58 · 0.45 | **−0.007** | 1 | +| BRUSH | 80 | 0.537 | 0.81 · 0.63 · 0.44 · 0.50 · 0.31 | +0.350 | 1 | + +### This inverts the order's design + +The order assigns **contact types the factor-rich treatment** and **power types +the honest base-rate treatment**, on the reasoning that single-game hits are +variance for a power profile. + +Measured, it is the other way round. **BOMBER is the one archetype where the +model ranks** (+0.207, monotone across quintiles, and it separates into a genuine +A/B at 95%). **GHOST is where it is flat** — corr −0.007, and its quintiles are +non-monotone: the model's most confident GHOST reads hit 47% while its middle +reads hit 74%. + +That ordering is mechanically sensible in hindsight. A power hitter's chance of a +hit tracks whether he can damage the arm he is facing, which the counter's +frequency question partly captures. A contact hitter's hits depend on batted +balls finding holes, which is much closer to luck — the same reason the pooled +hits negative closed (S83) and the reason `defense_by_direction` is the factor +that survives. + +**Had the rescale shipped as specified, it would have given the factor-rich +treatment to the archetype the model reads worst, and left base-rate on the one +it reads best.** + +### BOMBER still cannot publish two letters + +BOMBER's A/B split is real at 95% but does not survive the cumulative correction +at 106 tests — the intervals merge. So even the best archetype gets one honest +band today. Lowering the correction to expose it would be exactly the "curve to +make more A's" the order forbids. + +--- + +## 3. What was built + +`src/services/model/gradeBands.js` — per-archetype bands from realized outcomes: + +- **Lift, not raw rate.** A band is credited only when its interval clears *that + archetype's own* base rate. Locked by test: the same 62% realized rate is lift + for a 45%-base profile and a deficit for a 68%-base one. +- **The two-bar rule is structural.** `factor_informed` requires `proven` AND + `calibrated` for that archetype. Tests assert that proven-alone, calibrated- + alone, and neither all return `basis: 'base_rate'` with the reason stated — + so with nothing proven, which is today, no factor-informed band can be produced + at all. Same shape as `featureRegistry.liveFeatures()`: the honest state is the + default and the richer claim has to be earned past a gate. +- **Indistinguishable neighbours merge** rather than becoming different letters. +- **Thin bands are PROVISIONAL, not dropped** — "still counting" and "nothing + here" are different claims. +- **Wilson intervals**, widened by the cumulative correction. Wilson because + these bands are small and rates sit near the edges, where a normal + approximation runs past 0 and 1 and implies impossible rates. + +`reasoning()` is built and tested: a base-rate band says *"base-rate read … no +matchup factor is proven for this profile yet"*, and a factor-informed band with +no named proven factors returns **nothing** rather than inventing a why. + +It is **not wired to the card**, deliberately. There is no per-archetype band +being served, so attaching per-archetype copy now would ship product language for +a rescale that does not exist. + +### One piece of the order I did not build + +The specified power-type reasoning — *"the matchup edge is in total_bases"* — is +**not supported by any measurement**. `proven-status.js` records total_bases as +INCONCLUSIVE (delta +0.0038, CI [−0.068, +0.075]). Wiring that sentence would +assert an edge we have measured as indistinguishable from zero, which is the +fabricated-reason failure the rest of this module exists to prevent. + +--- + +## 4. What would unblock the rescale + +1. **BOMBER × hits is 29 rows short** of the gate — days away, and it is the + archetype the model actually reads. That is the first slot to test, not GHOST. +2. **Point-in-time platoon splits** would convert two held passes into real ones. +3. **Separation must survive the correction**, not just 95%. More sample tightens + the intervals; nothing else legitimately does. + +Counter and frozen clusters untouched. No letter was moved. diff --git a/src/services/model/gradeBands.js b/src/services/model/gradeBands.js new file mode 100644 index 0000000..ffac56a --- /dev/null +++ b/src/services/model/gradeBands.js @@ -0,0 +1,235 @@ +'use strict'; + +/** + * gradeBands — WHAT DOES A LETTER MEAN, PER ARCHETYPE, AND WHO SAYS SO? + * + * A grade is the product. So a letter has to be backed by a realized rate the + * ledger can stand behind — not by a threshold someone chose. This builds bands + * from settled outcomes, per archetype, and refuses to publish any band the + * evidence cannot support. + * + * ── LIFT, NOT RAW RATE ──────────────────────────────────────────────────── + * An A must beat the archetype's OWN naive base rate. A power hitter and a + * contact hitter have different base rates for a hit, so the same 62% realized + * rate is a strong read for one and slightly below water for the other. Bands + * are therefore drawn where the realized rate SEPARATES from that archetype's + * base rate, and a band whose interval still contains the base rate has shown no + * lift — whatever its raw number looks like. + * + * ── THE TWO-BAR RULE IS STRUCTURAL, NOT A HABIT ─────────────────────────── + * A band may be described as FACTOR-INFORMED only when that archetype's factors + * are both PROVEN and CALIBRATED. There is no argument that overrides it: the + * caller passes evidence, and without it every band comes back `basis: + * 'base_rate'` and says so. A test asserts that with nothing proven — which is + * the state today — no factor-informed band can be produced at all. + * + * This is the same shape as featureRegistry.liveFeatures(): the honest state is + * the DEFAULT, and the richer claim has to be earned past a gate, so it cannot + * be reached by forgetting. + * + * ── WHY A BAND CAN BE REFUSED ───────────────────────────────────────────── + * Thin bands are labelled PROVISIONAL rather than dropped, because "we are still + * counting" and "there is nothing here" are different claims. But a band whose + * corrected interval spans the base rate does NOT get a lift letter — it is + * reported as the base-rate read it is. + */ + +const { knownNumber } = require('../../utils/known'); + +/** Below this a band is published but flagged — counting, not concluded. */ +const PROVISIONAL_N = 30; +/** Below this a band is not published at all; there is nothing to stand behind. */ +const MIN_BAND_N = 12; +/** Letters, richest first. Assigned by measured lift, never by curve. */ +const LETTERS = ['A', 'B', 'C', 'D', 'F']; + +/** + * Wilson score interval, widened by the cumulative correction. + * + * Wilson rather than normal-approximation because these bands are small and + * rates sit near the edges, where the normal interval runs past 0 and 1 and + * quietly implies impossible rates. + */ +function wilson(hits, n, cumulativeTests = 1) { + const k = knownNumber(hits); const N = knownNumber(n); + if (k === null || N === null || N <= 0) return null; + const tests = Math.max(1, Math.round(knownNumber(cumulativeTests) ?? 1)); + const z = zFor(1 - (0.05 / tests) / 2); + const p = k / N; + const d = 1 + (z * z) / N; + const centre = (p + (z * z) / (2 * N)) / d; + const half = (z * Math.sqrt((p * (1 - p)) / N + (z * z) / (4 * N * N))) / d; + return [round4(Math.max(0, centre - half)), round4(Math.min(1, centre + half))]; +} + +/** Inverse normal CDF (Acklam) — good to ~1e-9, enough for an interval bound. */ +function zFor(p) { + if (p <= 0 || p >= 1) return 0; + const a = [-3.969683028665376e+01, 2.209460984245205e+02, -2.759285104469687e+02, + 1.383577518672690e+02, -3.066479806614716e+01, 2.506628277459239e+00]; + const b = [-5.447609879822406e+01, 1.615858368580409e+02, -1.556989798598866e+02, + 6.680131188771972e+01, -1.328068155288572e+01]; + const c = [-7.784894002430293e-03, -3.223964580411365e-01, -2.400758277161838e+00, + -2.549732539343734e+00, 4.374664141464968e+00, 2.938163982698783e+00]; + const d = [7.784695709041462e-03, 3.224671290700398e-01, 2.445134137142996e+00, + 3.754408661907416e+00]; + const pl = 0.02425; + let q; let r; + if (p < pl) { + q = Math.sqrt(-2 * Math.log(p)); + return (((((c[0] * q + c[1]) * q + c[2]) * q + c[3]) * q + c[4]) * q + c[5]) + / ((((d[0] * q + d[1]) * q + d[2]) * q + d[3]) * q + 1); + } + if (p > 1 - pl) { + q = Math.sqrt(-2 * Math.log(1 - p)); + return -(((((c[0] * q + c[1]) * q + c[2]) * q + c[3]) * q + c[4]) * q + c[5]) + / ((((d[0] * q + d[1]) * q + d[2]) * q + d[3]) * q + 1); + } + q = p - 0.5; r = q * q; + return (((((a[0] * r + a[1]) * r + a[2]) * r + a[3]) * r + a[4]) * r + a[5]) * q + / (((((b[0] * r + b[1]) * r + b[2]) * r + b[3]) * r + b[4]) * r + 1); +} + +/** + * Build bands for ONE archetype. + * + * @param {Array} rows [{ p, won }] — p is the model's probability, won 0/1 + * @param {object} opts + * opts.archetype label + * opts.cumulativeTests Bonferroni denominator (applied to every interval) + * opts.proven this archetype's factors passed the gate + * opts.calibrated this archetype's probabilities are certified calibrated + * opts.targetBands how many bands to attempt (default 5) + */ +function buildBands(rows, opts = {}) { + const usable = (rows || []).filter((r) => + knownNumber(r && r.p) !== null && knownNumber(r && r.won) !== null); + const n = usable.length; + const tests = opts.cumulativeTests ?? 1; + + // THE TWO-BAR RULE. Both, or the bands are a base-rate read and say so. + const factorInformed = Boolean(opts.proven) && Boolean(opts.calibrated); + + if (n < MIN_BAND_N) { + return { + archetype: opts.archetype || null, + basis: factorInformed ? 'factor_informed' : 'base_rate', + n, + base_rate: null, + bands: [], + refused: 'insufficient settled outcomes to stand behind any band', + }; + } + + const wins = usable.reduce((s, r) => s + (r.won > 0 ? 1 : 0), 0); + const baseRate = wins / n; + + // Candidate cuts by quantile of the model's own probability, then merged so + // every published band is distinguishable from its neighbour. + const sorted = [...usable].sort((a, b) => b.p - a.p); + const target = Math.max(2, Math.min(LETTERS.length, opts.targetBands || 5)); + const per = Math.max(MIN_BAND_N, Math.floor(n / target)); + + let raw = []; + for (let i = 0; i < sorted.length; i += per) { + const slice = sorted.slice(i, i + per); + // A trailing remainder too small to stand alone joins the previous band + // rather than being published as its own thin claim. + if (slice.length < MIN_BAND_N && raw.length) raw[raw.length - 1].push(...slice); + else raw.push(slice); + } + + // Merge neighbours whose corrected intervals overlap — if we cannot tell two + // bands apart, publishing them as different letters is a distinction we have + // not measured. + let merged = true; + while (merged && raw.length > 1) { + merged = false; + for (let i = 0; i < raw.length - 1; i += 1) { + const a = stats(raw[i], tests); const b = stats(raw[i + 1], tests); + if (a.ci && b.ci && a.ci[0] <= b.ci[1] && b.ci[0] <= a.ci[1]) { + raw.splice(i, 2, raw[i].concat(raw[i + 1])); + merged = true; + break; + } + } + } + + const bands = raw.map((slice, i) => { + const s = stats(slice, tests); + // LIFT: does this band's interval clear the archetype's own base rate? + const clearsAbove = s.ci !== null && s.ci[0] > baseRate; + const clearsBelow = s.ci !== null && s.ci[1] < baseRate; + return { + letter: LETTERS[Math.min(i, LETTERS.length - 1)], + n: slice.length, + p_range: [round4(Math.min(...slice.map((r) => r.p))), round4(Math.max(...slice.map((r) => r.p)))], + realized_rate: s.rate, + ci: s.ci, + lift_vs_archetype_base: round4(s.rate - baseRate), + // The claim the letter is allowed to make. + shows_lift: clearsAbove, + shows_deficit: clearsBelow, + separation: clearsAbove ? 'above_base_rate' : (clearsBelow ? 'below_base_rate' : 'indistinguishable_from_base_rate'), + provisional: slice.length < PROVISIONAL_N, + basis: factorInformed ? 'factor_informed' : 'base_rate', + }; + }); + + return { + archetype: opts.archetype || null, + basis: factorInformed ? 'factor_informed' : 'base_rate', + // Stated explicitly so a consumer never has to infer why it is a base-rate read. + two_bar: { + proven: Boolean(opts.proven), + calibrated: Boolean(opts.calibrated), + factor_informed_allowed: factorInformed, + ...(factorInformed ? {} : { + reason: !opts.proven + ? 'no factor has passed the gate for this archetype' + : 'factors proved but this archetype\'s probabilities are not certified calibrated', + }), + }, + n, + base_rate: round4(baseRate), + bands, + bonferroni_tests: Math.max(1, Math.round(knownNumber(tests) ?? 1)), + bands_showing_lift: bands.filter((b) => b.shows_lift).length, + }; +} + +function stats(slice, tests) { + const n = slice.length; + const w = slice.reduce((s, r) => s + (r.won > 0 ? 1 : 0), 0); + return { rate: round4(n ? w / n : null), ci: wilson(w, n, tests) }; +} + +/** + * The sentence attached to a grade. TRUE or absent — never a fluent fallback. + * + * A factor-informed reason names the factors that proved FOR THIS ARCHETYPE. A + * base-rate reason says plainly that it is a base-rate read, because a user who + * is told "favourable matchup" when nothing about the matchup was read has been + * given a fabricated reason, and that is worse than being given none. + */ +function reasoning(band, opts = {}) { + if (!band) return null; + const arch = opts.archetype ? String(opts.archetype).toUpperCase() : null; + if (band.basis === 'factor_informed') { + const proved = (opts.provenFactors || []).filter(Boolean); + if (!proved.length) return null; // cannot name what did not prove + return `${arch ? `${arch}: ` : ''}${proved.join(' + ')} — proved for this profile`; + } + const sep = band.separation === 'above_base_rate' + ? 'above this profile\'s base rate' + : (band.separation === 'below_base_rate' ? 'below this profile\'s base rate' : 'at this profile\'s base rate'); + return `${arch ? `${arch}: ` : ''}base-rate read, ${sep}` + + ' — no matchup factor is proven for this profile yet'; +} + +const round4 = (v) => (v == null || !Number.isFinite(v) ? null : Math.round(v * 10000) / 10000); + +module.exports = { + buildBands, reasoning, wilson, + PROVISIONAL_N, MIN_BAND_N, LETTERS, +}; diff --git a/tests/unit/gradeBands.test.js b/tests/unit/gradeBands.test.js new file mode 100644 index 0000000..03fe9b1 --- /dev/null +++ b/tests/unit/gradeBands.test.js @@ -0,0 +1,153 @@ +'use strict'; + +/** + * What a letter is allowed to mean. + * + * The failure these guard against is the one the whole programme keeps circling: + * a grade that LOOKS like it read tonight's matchup while reading nothing. Here + * that would be a band labelled factor-informed on an archetype where no factor + * ever proved — which is the state of every archetype today. + */ + +const gb = require('../../src/services/model/gradeBands'); + +/** n rows whose outcome rate genuinely tracks p, interleaved (never front-loaded). */ +function rows(specs) { + const out = []; + for (const [p, n, rate] of specs) { + for (let i = 0; i < n; i += 1) { + const won = Math.floor((i + 1) * rate) > Math.floor(i * rate) ? 1 : 0; + out.push({ p, won }); + } + } + return out; +} + +describe('the two-bar rule is structural', () => { + const data = rows([[0.75, 120, 0.75], [0.6, 120, 0.6], [0.45, 120, 0.45]]); + + it('with NOTHING proven — the state today — no band can be factor-informed', () => { + const out = gb.buildBands(data, { archetype: 'GHOST' }); + expect(out.basis).toBe('base_rate'); + expect(out.two_bar.factor_informed_allowed).toBe(false); + expect(out.two_bar.reason).toMatch(/no factor has passed the gate/); + expect(out.bands.every((b) => b.basis === 'base_rate')).toBe(true); + }); + + it('PROVEN but not calibrated is still a base-rate read, and names why', () => { + // Both bars, or neither claim. A proven factor whose numbers are not + // certified honest cannot carry a letter that asserts a rate. + const out = gb.buildBands(data, { archetype: 'GHOST', proven: true }); + expect(out.basis).toBe('base_rate'); + expect(out.two_bar.reason).toMatch(/not certified calibrated/); + }); + + it('CALIBRATED but not proven is still a base-rate read', () => { + const out = gb.buildBands(data, { archetype: 'GHOST', calibrated: true }); + expect(out.basis).toBe('base_rate'); + expect(out.two_bar.reason).toMatch(/no factor has passed the gate/); + }); + + it('only BOTH unlocks factor-informed', () => { + const out = gb.buildBands(data, { archetype: 'GHOST', proven: true, calibrated: true }); + expect(out.basis).toBe('factor_informed'); + expect(out.bands.every((b) => b.basis === 'factor_informed')).toBe(true); + }); +}); + +describe('lift is measured against the archetype\'s OWN base rate', () => { + it('a band is only credited when its interval clears the base rate', () => { + const out = gb.buildBands(rows([[0.8, 200, 0.80], [0.5, 200, 0.50], [0.3, 200, 0.30]]), { + archetype: 'GHOST', targetBands: 3, + }); + const top = out.bands[0]; + expect(top.shows_lift).toBe(true); + expect(top.separation).toBe('above_base_rate'); + expect(top.lift_vs_archetype_base).toBeGreaterThan(0); + const bottom = out.bands[out.bands.length - 1]; + expect(bottom.shows_deficit).toBe(true); + }); + + it('the same realized rate is lift for one archetype and not for another', () => { + // 62% is a real read for a profile that hits 45%, and slightly under water + // for one that hits 68%. A raw-rate band would call both the same letter. + const lowBase = gb.buildBands(rows([[0.62, 300, 0.62], [0.4, 300, 0.40]]), { archetype: 'LOW', targetBands: 2 }); + const highBase = gb.buildBands(rows([[0.62, 300, 0.62], [0.75, 300, 0.75]]), { archetype: 'HIGH', targetBands: 2 }); + expect(lowBase.bands[0].shows_lift).toBe(true); + expect(highBase.bands.find((b) => b.p_range[0] === 0.62).shows_deficit).toBe(true); + }); + + it('a band indistinguishable from the base rate claims NO lift', () => { + const flat = gb.buildBands(rows([[0.7, 150, 0.55], [0.5, 150, 0.55], [0.3, 150, 0.55]]), { archetype: 'FLAT' }); + for (const b of flat.bands) { + expect(b.shows_lift).toBe(false); + expect(b.separation).toBe('indistinguishable_from_base_rate'); + } + expect(flat.bands_showing_lift).toBe(0); + }); +}); + +describe('bands the ledger cannot stand behind', () => { + it('indistinguishable neighbours are MERGED, not published as different letters', () => { + // If we cannot tell two bands apart, calling one A and one B is a + // distinction we have not measured. + const out = gb.buildBands(rows([[0.7, 200, 0.60], [0.65, 200, 0.60], [0.6, 200, 0.60]]), { + archetype: 'SAME', targetBands: 5, + }); + expect(out.bands.length).toBe(1); + }); + + it('thin bands are PROVISIONAL, not silently dropped', () => { + // "Still counting" and "nothing here" are different claims. + const out = gb.buildBands(rows([[0.8, 20, 0.8], [0.3, 20, 0.3]]), { archetype: 'THIN', targetBands: 2 }); + expect(out.bands.some((b) => b.provisional)).toBe(true); + }); + + it('too few outcomes → no bands at all, with the refusal stated', () => { + const out = gb.buildBands(rows([[0.6, 5, 0.6]]), { archetype: 'TINY' }); + expect(out.bands).toEqual([]); + expect(out.refused).toMatch(/insufficient settled outcomes/); + }); + + it('the cumulative correction WIDENS every interval', () => { + const data = rows([[0.75, 150, 0.75], [0.45, 150, 0.45]]); + const one = gb.buildBands(data, { archetype: 'X', cumulativeTests: 1, targetBands: 2 }); + const many = gb.buildBands(data, { archetype: 'X', cumulativeTests: 99, targetBands: 2 }); + const width = (o) => o.bands[0].ci[1] - o.bands[0].ci[0]; + expect(width(many)).toBeGreaterThan(width(one)); + }); + + it('the interval never runs past 0 or 1', () => { + const out = gb.buildBands(rows([[0.99, 60, 1.0], [0.01, 60, 0.0]]), { archetype: 'EDGE', targetBands: 2 }); + for (const b of out.bands) { + expect(b.ci[0]).toBeGreaterThanOrEqual(0); + expect(b.ci[1]).toBeLessThanOrEqual(1); + } + }); +}); + +describe('the reason attached to a grade is true or absent', () => { + it('a base-rate band SAYS it is a base-rate read', () => { + const out = gb.buildBands(rows([[0.75, 120, 0.75], [0.45, 120, 0.45]]), { archetype: 'BOMBER', targetBands: 2 }); + const text = gb.reasoning(out.bands[0], { archetype: 'BOMBER' }); + expect(text).toMatch(/base-rate read/); + expect(text).toMatch(/no matchup factor is proven/); + // The thing it must never do is imply a matchup was read. + expect(text).not.toMatch(/matchup edge|favourable matchup/i); + }); + + it('a factor-informed band with NO named proven factors returns nothing', () => { + // Better to say nothing than to invent the why. + const out = gb.buildBands(rows([[0.75, 120, 0.75], [0.45, 120, 0.45]]), + { archetype: 'GHOST', proven: true, calibrated: true, targetBands: 2 }); + expect(gb.reasoning(out.bands[0], { archetype: 'GHOST', provenFactors: [] })).toBeNull(); + }); + + it('a factor-informed band names the factors that actually proved', () => { + const out = gb.buildBands(rows([[0.75, 120, 0.75], [0.45, 120, 0.45]]), + { archetype: 'GHOST', proven: true, calibrated: true, targetBands: 2 }); + const text = gb.reasoning(out.bands[0], { archetype: 'GHOST', provenFactors: ['defense_by_direction'] }); + expect(text).toMatch(/GHOST: defense_by_direction/); + expect(text).toMatch(/proved for this profile/); + }); +}); diff --git a/web/public/sw.js b/web/public/sw.js index 87a82c9..077a5c9 100644 --- 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