The interface was about to restore the lie: null confidence rendered as 0%

The backend already refuses to state a probability it cannot certify. The card did not. `gradeAdapter.js:59` read input.confidence != null ? Math.round(Number(input.confidence)) : 0 and `GradeResultCard` printed `{d.confidence}% confidence` unconditionally, so an UNCERTIFIED Read — which by contract carries no exact probability — would have rendered "0% CONFIDENCE" to a user. That is `Number(null) === 0`, the standing fabrication bug in this codebase, arriving at the last surface before the eye. Found by running two REAL production rows (model_snapshots 453021 and 453033 from proven cohort 27ce152f) through the real serving seam and the real adapter, before rendering anything. Repaired at the two places it lives, presentation only: - the adapter carries null through instead of coercing; - the card renders "Confidence unavailable" as TEXT when there is no number. Wording follows the house pattern already in `readHistory.js` ("History unavailable") — no dash, no dimmed zero, no icon-only state, and no engineering language: a test forbids isotonic / artifact / probability_contract / UNCERTIFIED / certification_version reaching the card. A second, narrower correction: the derived-field withdrawal was `if (f in out) out[f] = null`, so it depended on whether the input happened to carry the key and a field added by a later merge would have arrived un-withdrawn. An uncertified row now DECLARES each probability-derived claim null rather than merely lacking it. The uncertified fixture is the strong case, not a convenient one: Luis Robert carries value:true and ev_pct 38.5 on the raw row, so the contract has a live VALUE badge to withdraw rather than an absent one to leave absent. Verified withdrawn, while grade B+, the side, the Read and the market (book -160, fair -135) all survive. The certified case moves the number materially and visibly: raw 0.798 -> served 0.638, and EV is recomputed from the served probability, not carried from raw. PriceTriplet needed no change — it already renders an absent leg as a dash and was documented never to print a zero. Suite 407/407, 5,691 passed. Teeth 45/45 + 10/10 + 23/23. Live OFF. Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com> Claude-Session: https://claude.ai/code/session_01CQJeAG8vcDoL5zkiaJyVb8
2026-09-04 17:13:17 -04:00
parent 84f1fc075c
commit 355615d27e
6 changed files with 181 additions and 7 deletions
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+'use strict';
+
+/**
+ * THE INTERFACE MUST NOT RESTORE THE LIE.
+ *
+ * The backend already refuses to state a probability it cannot certify. This
+ * holds the presentation layer to the same standard: an uncertified Read shows
+ * the Read, the grade, the side and the market — and says plainly that the
+ * exact confidence is unavailable, rather than printing a number nobody stands
+ * behind.
+ *
+ * Found by this suite before any pixel was rendered: `gradeAdapter` coerced a
+ * null confidence to 0, so `GradeResultCard` rendered "0% confidence".
+ */
+const fs = require('fs');
+const path = require('path');
+const { mapScanToGradeResult } = require('../../web/src/lib/gradeAdapter');
+const sp = require('../../src/services/model/servedProbability');
+const registry = require('../../src/services/model/artifactRegistry');
+
+const ERA = 'engine1@2026-08-07-fullwindow';
+const CARD = fs.readFileSync(path.join(__dirname, '../../web/src/components/vyndr/GradeResultCard.tsx'), 'utf8');
+
+/** REAL production rows from proven shadow cohort 27ce152f, run through the
+ *  REAL serving seam with live forced on for the test process only. */
+// Exact production values, model_snapshots ids 453021 and 453033.
+const REAL = {
+  // raw 0.798 -> served 0.638: calibration materially moves the displayed number
+  certified: { sport: 'mlb', stat_type: 'hits', player: 'Christian Encarnacion Strand',
+    line: 1.5, side: 'under', direction: 'under', model_version: ERA, p_win: 0.798,
+    confidence: 80, grade: 'B+', ev_pct: 17.9, value: false,
+    book_odds: -210, fair_odds: -173, fair_prob: 0.633, over_odds: 155, under_odds: -210,
+    tier: 'desk' },
+  // raw 0.852, and it carries value:true / ev 38.5 — so the contract has a real
+  // actionability badge to withdraw, not merely an absent one to leave absent.
+  uncertified: { sport: 'mlb', stat_type: 'hits', player: 'Luis Robert',
+    line: 1.5, side: 'under', direction: 'under', model_version: ERA, p_win: 0.852,
+    confidence: 85, grade: 'B+', ev_pct: 38.5, value: true,
+    book_odds: -160, fair_odds: -135, fair_prob: 0.575, over_odds: 120, under_odds: -160,
+    tier: 'desk' },
+};
+
+const live = (row) => sp.applyToRows([{ ...row }], { liveState: { live: 'ON' } })[0];
+const card = (row) => mapScanToGradeResult(live(row));
+
+describe('the live contract reaches the card correctly', () => {
+  it('CERTIFIED: the card shows the SERVED probability, not the raw one', () => {
+    const served = registry.applyCurve(registry.load('mlb', 'hits'), 0.798);
+    const d = card(REAL.certified);
+    expect(d.confidence).toBe(Math.round(Math.round(served * 1000) / 1000 * 100));
+    expect(d.confidence).not.toBe(80);                 // the raw confidence
+    expect(String(d.confidence)).not.toBe('0');
+  });
+
+  it('CERTIFIED: EV comes from the served probability, not the raw one', () => {
+    const out = live(REAL.certified);
+    const { evPct } = require('../../src/utils/devig');
+    expect(out.ev_pct).toBe(evPct(out.p_win, -210));
+    expect(out.ev_pct).not.toBe(17.9);                 // the raw-derived value
+  });
+
+  it('UNCERTIFIED: confidence is NULL — never 0, never 50, never NaN', () => {
+    const d = card(REAL.uncertified);
+    expect(d.confidence).toBeNull();
+    expect(d.confidence).not.toBe(0);
+    expect(d.confidence).not.toBe(50);
+    expect(Number.isNaN(d.confidence)).toBe(false);
+  });
+
+  it('UNCERTIFIED: no raw probability survives anywhere the card can print it', () => {
+    const d = card(REAL.uncertified);
+    const json = JSON.stringify(d);
+    expect(json).not.toContain('0.852');
+    expect(json).not.toContain('"confidence":85');
+    expect(json).not.toContain('38.5');                // raw EV
+  });
+
+  it('UNCERTIFIED: the Read, the grade, the side and the market all survive', () => {
+    const d = card(REAL.uncertified);
+    expect(d.grade).toBe('B+');                        // grade untouched
+    expect(d.player).toBe('Luis Robert');              // Read exists
+    expect(d.priceTriplet.book_odds).toBe(-160);       // market visible
+    expect(d.priceTriplet.model_odds).toBeNull();      // model leg withheld
+    expect(d.priceTriplet.ev_pct).toBeNull();
+  });
+
+  it('UNCERTIFIED: a TRUE value badge is withdrawn, not left standing', () => {
+    expect(REAL.uncertified.value).toBe(true);         // the raw row claims VALUE
+    const out = live(REAL.uncertified);
+    expect(out.value).toBeNull();                      // and the contract withdraws it
+    expect(out.kelly).toBeNull();
+    expect(out.model_odds).toBeNull();
+    expect(out.ev_pct).toBeNull();
+  });
+});
+
+describe('what the card actually renders', () => {
+  it('renders a WORD, not a number, when confidence is unavailable', () => {
+    expect(CARD).toContain('Confidence unavailable');
+    // and the numeric clause is conditional, not unconditional
+    expect(CARD).toContain('d.confidence != null');
+    expect(CARD).not.toMatch(/<span>\{d\.confidence\}% confidence<\/span>\s*\n\s*<\/div>/);
+  });
+
+  it('the unavailable state is TEXT — not colour, an icon or an absence', () => {
+    const i = CARD.indexOf('Confidence unavailable');
+    const clause = CARD.slice(i - 200, i + 60);
+    expect(clause).toContain('<span');                 // rendered as readable text
+    // it must not be conveyed by a dash or an empty node
+    expect(clause).not.toContain('&mdash;');
+    expect(clause).not.toMatch(/>\s*—\s*</);
+  });
+
+  it('no engineering language reaches the user', () => {
+    for (const term of ['isotonic', 'artifact', 'knot_digest', 'probability_contract',
+      'UNCERTIFIED', 'CERTIFIED_CALIBRATED', 'certification_version', 'model era']) {
+      expect(CARD).not.toContain(term);
+    }
+  });
+
+  it('grade and confidence availability stay separate concepts', () => {
+    const d = card(REAL.uncertified);
+    expect(d.confidence).toBeNull();
+    expect(d.grade).toBe('B+');
+    // no strike-through / revision styling tied to the confidence state
+    const i = CARD.indexOf('Confidence unavailable');
+    expect(CARD.slice(i - 300, i + 100)).not.toContain('line-through');
+  });
+});