diff --git a/specs/MASTER-PLAN.md b/specs/MASTER-PLAN.md
index 4882a7d..31c17cc 100644
--- a/specs/MASTER-PLAN.md
+++ b/specs/MASTER-PLAN.md
@@ -153,3 +153,91 @@ a global engine · lookahead guard (lock-time fields only) · overfitting guard
 one split, prove another) · never mint A's without new information · aggregate proof
 is free, itemized judgment is paid · one canonical founder flag · atomicity by unique
 index, never a count · cache-bust every post-deploy check · verify-after-write.
+
+
+---
+
+# 9. WHAT'S ACTUALLY MISSING FOR THIS TO WORK AS A PRODUCT
+
+*The phases above say what is UNBUILT. This says what is missing for VYNDR to
+genuinely do what it claims. Some of it is not a build, and one of it is not
+fixable by us at all. Written plainly because a plan that only counts code is the
+comfortable version.*
+
+## 9.1 🔴 THE CENTRAL ONE: there is no demonstrated edge yet
+
+Every edge measurement this session came back **null, negative, or unproven**:
+
+| measurement | result |
+|---|---|
+| served grade → outcome | **r ≈ 0.005**, and **inverted** (B 52.4% < C 56.9%) |
+| p_win − fair_prob (3 formulations) | **negative in all three, both sports, both splits** |
+| p_win alone, MLB, holdout | +0.165, **p ≈ 0.07 — not significant** |
+| p_win alone, WNBA | **negative** — abstains |
+| CLV / beat-close | **null by guard** — instrument not trustworthy |
+| ROI by grade | likely an artifact of a meaningless letter |
+
+**The product's core claim — "our read is better than the market" — is not
+currently supported by our own data.** Everything else in this plan is
+scaffolding around that. Building all 23 orders and *not* closing this leaves a
+beautifully-built product that doesn't do the one thing it sells.
+
+**What closes it:** not code. **Sample and honest iteration.** The instrument
+fields are ~10 days old (442 rows). At ~90 decided MLB rows/week, a defensible
+verdict is **6–10 weeks out**. That clock cannot be shortened by engineering, and
+any attempt to shorten it is the fabrication this whole session has been removing.
+
+## 9.2 The projection — the actual engine — is thin and unvalidated
+The grade's only real inputs today are **l5/l20 averages, an opponent rank, rest
+and usage**. Similarity, archetypes, park/weather/platoon and the Bayesian layer
+are all built and **not connected**. So VYNDR is currently a recent-form average
+wearing an intelligence system's clothes. Phase 1 connects them — **but connecting
+them is a hypothesis, not a guarantee.** They must each prove out on held-out data
+or be left disconnected honestly.
+
+## 9.3 A one-sport product marketed as multi-sport
+MLB is the only qualifying model. WNBA abstains on its own data. NBA and soccer
+**don't even settle** — they grade into a void. Until Phase 5, the honest framing
+is *"an MLB product with other sports in development."* The site should not imply
+otherwise.
+
+## 9.4 No customers, therefore no feedback loop
+**3 users, 0 paid.** The founder mechanism is built and race-proven, `/record`
+exists, the gate works — and **none of it has met a real user.** Nothing here is
+validated by usage: not the price, not the tier line, not whether the locked-shell
+tease converts, not whether anyone wants this. **The first 10 real users will
+teach more than the next 10 build orders.**
+
+## 9.5 No distribution — the biggest non-code gap
+There is no acquisition path at all. The newsletter send is unscheduled, share
+cards are unbuilt (blocked on the resolution tail), social proof has no fuel
+(needs a real record), partner/affiliate links are all `enabled:false`. **A product
+nobody sees cannot be validated regardless of how good the model gets.** This
+appears in no phase above and belongs on the board as its own track.
+
+## 9.6 The read isn't actionable at the last mile
+Push-to-book is a **teaser** — no affiliate is live, so a user who trusts a read
+still leaves to place it manually. Bankroll guidance (Kelly) is Desk-gated. The
+gap between *"here's a good read"* and *"I placed it"* is unclosed.
+
+## 9.7 Operational fragility
+Single-box, single Redis (persistence is a Coolify setting, not app-controlled),
+one cron. Settlement silently covers 2 sports. **Three credentials remain flagged
+for rotation, including a Stripe live key that transited a chat transcript.** No
+staging environment — every verification this session ran against prod.
+
+---
+
+## THE HONEST SUMMARY
+
+**Built well:** the truth infrastructure. Honest empty states, refusal paths,
+n-gates, the append-only ledger, the settled/live gate, the atomic founder cap.
+**This codebase does not lie about what it knows** — that is rare and it is real.
+
+**Not yet true:** that the model beats the market. Not disproven either — *unmeasured
+at adequate n*, on one sport, with a projection whose best layers aren't connected.
+
+**So the finish line is not 23 orders.** It is 23 orders **plus a verdict from
+accrued data that we cannot rush** — and the discipline to report that verdict
+honestly if it says the edge isn't there. The plan above builds the machine. Only
+time and honest measurement decide whether the machine is right.