Calibrate hits point-in-time: partial pass, and an honest ceiling of 0.667

Fitted the isotonic map on game_date < 2026-08-02 (n=589) and evaluated it on
everything from that date forward (n=383). The map never saw the evaluation
rows, which is the only thing that makes the result mean anything -- fitting
and evaluating on the same rows always looks perfectly calibrated, because the
map is reciting the answers it was built from.

It works, on most of the distribution. Held-out after correction: 0.477 comes
back 0.506, 0.587 comes back 0.580, 0.667 comes back 0.603 -- against raw
errors of +0.191, +0.279 and +0.246 in the same bins. Ordering survived, and
that was verified pairwise rather than assumed, because a broken map would
silently destroy the one thing this model does well.

Two findings matter more than the pass.

First, the honest ceiling is 0.667. Once the numbers are truthful this model
has no 80%-plus hit reads at all -- the top of its range was miscalibration,
not confidence. A four-leg ticket at the ceiling is 0.198, where the raw
numbers implied 0.686. The high-floor parlay is a two-thirds-per-leg
proposition, and that is the number to say out loud.

Second, calibration is certified BY BAND rather than by a blanket flag.
Held-out error was -0.029 and +0.007 through the middle but -0.167 at the
bottom and +0.063 at the top: the model is trustworthy over most of its mass
and untrustworthy at both edges. A single true/false would either throw away
the 72% that works or ship the edges that do not. Only a probability inside a
certified band is marked stackable, and that flag is what chainAcross requires
before it will compound anything. The certified band is 0.40 to 0.60, n=276.

A methodological catch on the way: my first pass condition demanded honest bins
at 0.70 and above -- but honest calibration REMOVES those bins, since the
ceiling drops to 0.667. The gate would have failed the repair for succeeding.
It now tests the highest remaining band instead of a fixed threshold.

Wired forward with the same discipline: calibrationService fits strictly before
today, splits by time rather than at random, and returns null on thin history
so that "no calibrator" means nothing is stackable rather than "trust the raw
numbers". p_win is never mutated -- the calibrated value rides beside it as
p_win_calibrated, because a calibration map is a correction to a forecast, not
a different forecast, and the counter stays byte-identical.

4,275 tests green (339 suites); web build exit 0.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>
Claude-Session: https://claude.ai/code/session_01W1sivYNqY2TS5ftykmHBU9

BUILD-STATE.md

@@ -3,6 +3,24 @@
 ## Last Updated
 2026-08-03
 
+## Session 91 (2026-08-04) — Hits calibrated point-in-time; parlay partially unblocked ✅
+4,275 tests / 339 suites green, build exit 0. Counter + frozen clusters
+byte-identical (`p_win` untouched).
+- **PARTIAL PASS.** Fit <2026-08-02 (n=589) → held-out >= (n=383). Corrected
+  held-out: 0.477→0.506, 0.587→0.580, 0.667→0.603 (raw was +0.191/+0.279/+0.246).
+  Ordering preserved. **Certified band 0.40–0.60 (n=276, err −0.029).**
+- **HONEST CEILING 0.667** — no 80%+ hit reads survive calibration. 4-leg ticket
+  at ceiling = **0.198**, against 0.686 implied by the raw numbers.
+- **Banded certification** (`certifyBands`/`inCertifiedBand`) instead of a
+  blanket flag: middle honest (−0.029/+0.007), edges not (−0.167/+0.063).
+- **`calibrationService`** fits strictly-before-today, splits by TIME, returns
+  null on thin history (⇒ nothing stackable). Wired into the snapshot: hits
+  grades carry `p_win_calibrated` + `calibrated`; `p_win` untouched.
+- **Parlay surface unblocked for in-band legs only** — `chainAcross` compounds
+  them, cross-game preferred, same-game a labelled approximation.
+- Caught: a pass condition that demanded ≥0.70 bins exist would have failed the
+  map for succeeding (calibration removes that band).
+
 ## Session 90 (2026-08-04) — chaining-v1: portable chain + the calibration gate ✅
 4,269 tests / 339 suites green, build exit 0. Counter + frozen clusters
 byte-identical.