Session A (night2): AUTONOMY.md + SNAP_TTL 6h→24h P0 fix

The overnight cron gap (03→14 UTC) is 11h; a 6h snapshot TTL meant the
morning settle pass read an expired snapshot and the accuracy loop
silently settled nothing. Ledger (Postgres) settle was immune.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>

AUTONOMY.md

@@ -0,0 +1,80 @@
+# AUTONOMY — "Kev touches nothing for 7 days, what happens"
+
+Session 60 (night2), traced on d10bb4c + tonight's fixes. Every step cites
+its code. Verdict at the bottom.
+
+## The daily loop (all times ET / UTC)
+
+**10:00 AM ET (14:00 UTC) — cron slot 1** (`snapshotScheduler.js` HOURS_UTC
+= 14,19,22,1,3; armed by `SNAPSHOT_CRON=1` in server.js):
+1. **Settle pass runs FIRST** (`tick()` order: settleAllOutcomes →
+   settleAllLedgers → runAllSnapshots):
+   - `outcomeService.settleAllOutcomes` — settles yesterday's snapshot
+     grades vs real MLB game logs → `outcomes:{sport}:log` +
+     `accuracy:{sport}` + `accuracy:overall`.
+     **P0 FIXED TONIGHT:** `SNAP_TTL` was 6h but the overnight gap
+     (03:00→14:00 UTC) is 11h — the snapshot EXPIRED before this pass and
+     the accuracy loop settled nothing. Now 24h (`snapshotService.js`).
+   - `ledgerService.settleAllLedgers` — settles Supabase `ledger_entries`
+     (game_date < today ET): outcome + actual_value + CLV vs the captured
+     closing line. Reads Postgres, immune to Redis TTLs. Idempotent
+     (`.is('outcome', null)` guard) — re-runs are no-ops.
+2. **Snapshot pass** (`snapshotService.runSnapshot` per sport):
+   - `getOdds` (PropLine free keys, odds-api backup) → date-pinned; a
+     morning with no lines yet = honest `skipped: no props` (NOT retried —
+     only thrown/null responses retry once).
+   - grades → normalize/dedupe → archetype+team resolve (free statsapi)
+     → `snapshot:{sport}:latest` + `grades:{sport}` (6h TTL — outlives the
+     5h max intra-day gap) → ticker events.
+   - **Ledger write**: `recordPipelineGrades` upserts public rows
+     (user_id NULL, `ignoreDuplicates` — re-runs never dupe or overwrite
+     the original lock). `captureClosing` overwrites today's unsettled
+     rows' closing_line/odds with current feed values.
+
+**3:00 PM / 6:00 PM / 9:00 PM / 11:00 PM ET — cron slots 2–5**: same tick.
+Each run re-captures closing (the LAST write before a game starts is the
+real close — after start the prop leaves the feed, so it freezes), computes
+line deltas vs the previous snapshot (ticker MOVE), and upserts any newly
+posted props as new locked rows.
+
+**Overnight**: games finish; nothing runs until 10 AM, when the settle pass
+closes yesterday's book. Every settled row gets outcome/actual/CLV exactly
+once.
+
+## Self-healing / watchdogs
+- Missed-cron watchdog (per-minute, `isSnapshotOverdue`) → ntfy alert
+  (`vyndr-pipeline-kev2026`) once per missed slot. Snapshot success/empty/
+  failure also alert (`opsNotify`, never throws).
+- `GET /api/internal/snapshot/status` (internal key) → cron_armed, last
+  snapshot, redis keys, `overdue` flag.
+- Schedule/streaks/hotlist read caches self-heal on miss (cache-aside ESPN,
+  date-pinned since Session 57). Public snapshot/ledger reads are
+  cache-only and can never drain quota.
+
+## What accumulates without touch (day 1 → day 7)
+- Day 1: first locked rows; MODEL tab "RECORD BUILDING · N pending".
+- Day 2 morning: first settles + CLV (closing captured day 1). AccuracyBadge
+  leaves "LEARNING" at 8 settled; ledger aggregates render % at n≥20.
+- Day ~3–4 (MLB volume ~20-25 graded/day, all settleable): hit% + beat-close%
+  go live on /ledger MODEL, landing ModelRecord, player strips.
+- Day 7: 30d-window aggregates, per-player records accruing. WNBA rows
+  accumulate PENDING (honest) until Phase 4.5 (ESPN box-score settle,
+  due ~Jul 24) — the one known credibility clock.
+
+## Dependencies that must stay true (the only touch-points)
+1. Coolify container running with `SNAPSHOT_CRON=1`, PropLine keys,
+   SUPABASE_URL + service key, REDIS_URL. (One-time, already set.)
+2. Redis persistence is server-side config (Session 52) — snapshot keys
+   vanishing on restart = Coolify Redis setting, not code. The LEDGER is
+   Postgres and survives anything.
+3. ntfy channel monitored casually — alerts are informational; the loop
+   needs no response.
+
+## Verdict
+**Zero-touch for 7 days: YES for the core record** (grade→lock→close→
+settle→aggregate, all scheduled in-process, idempotent, alert-covered) —
+after tonight's SNAP_TTL fix, which was the one broken link (morning
+settles silently skipped). Known honest gaps: WNBA settles pending until
+4.5; streaks/hot-list data production was EXTERNAL (tank01-prefetch via
+n8n/cron, possibly unarmed) — Session B moves log production into the
+snapshot pipeline so the aggregator feeds itself.

src/services/snapshotService.js

@@ -17,7 +17,11 @@
  *   ticker:items               — capped array of ticker events (newest first)
  */
 
-const SNAP_TTL = 6 * 3600;      // 6h — a snapshot is valid until the next run
+// Session 60 (AUTONOMY P0) — 24h, NOT 6h. The overnight cron gap is 11 hours
+// (03:00 UTC → 14:00 UTC); with a 6h TTL the morning settle pass read an
+// EXPIRED snapshot and the accuracy loop silently settled nothing. The
+// snapshot must survive until the morning-after settle reads it.
+const SNAP_TTL = 24 * 3600;
 const TICKER_TTL = 24 * 3600;
 const TICKER_CAP = 50;
 const DELTA_NOISE = 0.5;        // ignore movements smaller than this