Layer 1: Statcast mechanism-data ingestion (backfill + nightly refresh)

The data foundation for the archetype and projection layers, built as the
pattern every sport inherits. Layers 2 and 3 are not touched.

PHASE 0 GATE — both match rates measured live, both 100%. Batters 40/40;
PITCHERS 66/66 across five real rosters (CLE, DET, MIN, NYY, LAD) joined by
MLBAM id against the 713-pitcher Savant feed. Zero honest-absent on identity,
because the join is an integer both systems use natively — and the snapshot
pipeline already stores it per graded row.

SOURCE — five Baseball Savant CSV leaderboards, free and public, pulled with
axios and the CSV parser savantAdapter already runs in prod. pybaseball is
deliberately NOT used: it is an MIT wrapper over these same URLs, and adding it
would reintroduce a Python runtime in a stack where the existing Python service
is already offline. min=1 on every feed, not Savant's default min=q, so the
long tail arrives and OUR minimum-sample gate decides what is thin — explicit
and testable rather than silently dropped upstream.

Measured: 1,354 rows per season (604 batters, 750 pitchers), all five feeds in
about five seconds. Pitcher mechanism includes arm angle, GB/FB/LD, chase and
whiff; batters get exit velo, launch angle, barrel and hard-hit, chase and
z-swing. Handedness rides in free on the movement feed (677 pitchers); batter
handedness stays absent pending a roster join rather than being guessed.

BACKFILL AND REFRESH ARE THE SAME CALL — a full re-pull upserted on
(sport, season, source_id). Idempotent and self-healing: a missed night
self-corrects on the next run, with no incremental who-played bookkeeping to
drift out of sync. At 1,354 rows the simple thing is also the robust one.

HONESTY RULES, each with a test: a metric the feed did not carry is null and
never 0; a thin sample is STORED and flagged rather than dropped or inflated,
because thin and missing are different claims; an unjoined player is stored
with a null player_key and joins later; and if every feed comes back empty the
job REFUSES to write, so a bad night can never blank a good table.

Freshness is treated as a truth property. updated_at on every row, and the
scheduler pages on a failed run AND on silent staleness — a job that stops
being scheduled never produces a failure, so staleness has to alarm on its own.
Never-built is deliberately not stale: different condition, different fix, and
paging on a fresh install teaches the operator to ignore the alarm.

Nightly at STATCAST_HOUR_UTC (default 11 UTC, after every game is final), kill
switch STATCAST=0, and induce-able at POST /api/internal/statcast/refresh with
a freshness probe at /statcast/status — we verify a refresh by running it, not
by waiting for the slot.

Migration 030 applied. Promoted columns for the classification-critical metrics
plus a metrics JSONB carrying every raw field, so Layer 2 can reach something we
did not promote without a re-ingest. Raw per-pitch stays out of Postgres on
purpose: one season is ~0.85 GB against a 500 MB plan ceiling, and it is
re-pullable from the free source if Layer 3 ever needs it.

Pattern documented in docs/MECHANISM-DATA.md for NBA tracking and NFL Next Gen.

Tests 3581 passed / 292 suites, web build exit 0.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.8 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>
Claude-Session: https://claude.ai/code/session_01VCNgGSt5qvcLxaeQqa7Zpj
This commit is contained in:
Kev
2026-07-20 21:37:30 -04:00
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# MECHANISM DATA — the Layer-1 pattern every sport inherits
Layer 1 of the archetype+projection build. It lands **mechanism data** — how a
player actually does what he does — and keeps it current. It does **not**
classify (Layer 2) or project (Layer 3).
MLB is the first instance. NBA tracking and NFL Next Gen slot into the same
four boxes with a different adapter and a different source id.
## The pattern
```
SOURCE ADAPTER free/public first · absent-not-zero · injectable fetch
│ no new runtime deps · one file per sport
IDENTITY BRIDGE source-native id ↔ our player_key
│ the match rate is MEASURED and REPORTED, never assumed —
│ the unmatched rate IS the honest-absent rate
AGGREGATE pure, re-runnable, explicit MIN-SAMPLE gates
DERIVATION thin ≠ missing: both stored, distinguishable
HOT STORE small, indexed, upserted on the natural key
(Supabase) + updated_at, because freshness is a truth property
```
### The five rules that make it a pattern
1. **Backfill and refresh are the same call.** A full re-pull upserted on the
natural key is idempotent and self-healing: a missed night self-corrects on
the next run. No incremental "who played today" bookkeeping to drift out of
sync. Only viable because the aggregate grain is small — which is the point
of aggregating.
2. **Aggregate grain, not raw.** One season of raw MLB per-pitch is ~0.85 GB in
Postgres against a 500 MB plan ceiling; the aggregate set is ~1,350 rows.
Raw stays retrievable from the free source if Layer 3 ever needs it.
3. **Absent is absent.** A metric the feed did not carry is `null`, never `0`.
A player below the minimum sample is stored and flagged, not dropped and not
inflated. A player we cannot join is stored with a null `player_key` and
joins later — storing him is not a claim about him.
4. **Refuse to write nothing.** If every feed returns empty that is a source
failure, not "there is no mechanism data". The job refuses the write so a
bad night can never blank a good table.
5. **Freshness is monitored.** `updated_at` on every row; the scheduler pages on
a failed run AND on silent staleness — a job that stops being scheduled never
produces a failure, so staleness must alarm on its own. **Never-built is not
stale**: different condition, different fix, and paging on a fresh install
teaches the operator to ignore the alarm.
## MLB instance
- **Adapter** `src/services/adapters/statcastAdapter.js` — five Baseball Savant
CSV leaderboards (free, public, no key). Direct `axios` + the existing CSV
parser; **pybaseball is deliberately not used** — it is a Python wrapper over
these same URLs, and the stack's Python service is already offline in prod.
- **Service** `src/services/statcastAggregateService.js``buildRows` (pure),
`refreshSeason` (the job), `getFreshness` / `isStale` (the alarm predicates).
- **Store** `statcast_aggregates` (migration 030), PK `(sport, season, source_id)`.
Promoted columns for the classification-critical metrics + a `metrics` JSONB
carrying every raw field, so Layer 2/3 can reach something we did not promote
**without a re-ingest**.
- **Schedule** nightly at `STATCAST_HOUR_UTC` (default 11 UTC ≈ 7 AM ET, after
every game is final). Kill switch `STATCAST=0`.
- **Induce** `POST /api/internal/statcast/refresh` · **probe**
`GET /api/internal/statcast/status` (internal key). We verify a refresh by
running it, never by waiting for the slot.
### Measured (2026-07-20)
| | |
|---|---|
| Batter match rate | **100%** (40/40 real players) |
| Pitcher match rate | **100%** (66/66 real roster pitchers) |
| Rows per season | **1,354** (604 batters + 750 pitchers) |
| Join rate | **1,354 / 1,354** |
| Handedness present | 677 pitchers (from the movement feed) |
| Sufficient / thin | 998 / 356 at PA≥50, IP≥10 |
| Pull time | ~5 s for all five feeds |
## Adding a sport
1. Write `src/services/adapters/{sport}Adapter.js` returning the same shape:
indexes keyed by source id, metrics strictly parsed.
2. Confirm and **report** the identity match rate before building on it.
3. Extend `buildRows` with the sport's role vocabulary and its minimum-sample
gates.
4. Add the scheduler hour and the induce endpoint.
Nothing else changes: the store, the alarm and the upsert semantics are shared.
## Commodity, not moat
Raw Statcast is public — every competitor can pull the same numbers in about a
second. Ingesting it is table stakes. The edge is Layer 2 (which mechanism
signals define an archetype, and where the boundaries sit), Layer 3
(projections built on them), and the settled ledger that proves whether any of
it predicts anything. **Having the data is not having an edge. Having it plus
an attributed record is.**
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} }
}); });
/**
* POST /api/internal/statcast/refresh — INDUCE the Layer-1 mechanism refresh.
*
* Same call the nightly scheduler makes. Exists so the job is verifiable ON
* DEMAND: we prove a refresh works by running it and reading the result, never
* by waiting for the cron slot. Idempotent — running it twice is a no-op beyond
* refreshing values and updated_at.
*/
router.post('/statcast/refresh', async (req, res) => {
try {
const agg = require('../services/statcastAggregateService');
const season = req.query.season ? Number(req.query.season) : undefined;
const out = await agg.refreshSeason({ season });
const fresh = await agg.getFreshness({});
return res.status(out.ok ? 200 : 500).json({ ...out, freshness: fresh, stale: agg.isStale(fresh) });
} catch (err) {
console.error('[internal/statcast]', err.message);
return res.status(500).json({ ok: false, error: err.message });
}
});
/** GET /api/internal/statcast/status — freshness probe for the mechanism tier. */
router.get('/statcast/status', async (req, res) => {
try {
const agg = require('../services/statcastAggregateService');
const fresh = await agg.getFreshness({});
return res.json({
...fresh,
stale: agg.isStale(fresh),
max_age_hours: agg.MAX_AGE_HOURS,
min_pa: agg.MIN_PA,
min_ip: agg.MIN_IP,
cron_hour_utc: Number(process.env.STATCAST_HOUR_UTC || 11),
enabled: process.env.STATCAST !== '0',
});
} catch (err) {
return res.status(500).json({ error: err.message });
}
});
router.post('/outcomes/:sport', async (req, res) => { router.post('/outcomes/:sport', async (req, res) => {
const outcomes = require('../services/outcomeService'); const outcomes = require('../services/outcomeService');
try { try {
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'use strict';
/**
* STATCAST ADAPTER (Layer 1) — the SOURCE ADAPTER of the mechanism-data pattern.
*
* Pulls per-player-per-season Statcast aggregates from Baseball Savant. Free,
* public, no key, no quota — the same host `savantAdapter` already uses in prod.
*
* WHY NOT pybaseball: it is an MIT-licensed Python wrapper around these exact
* CSV URLs. Adding it would reintroduce a Python runtime dependency in a stack
* where the existing Python service is already offline in production (nba_api
* degrades to found:false for exactly that reason). We call the endpoints
* directly with axios and reuse savantAdapter's quote-aware CSV parser — no new
* dependency, one less thing to keep alive.
*
* FIVE FEEDS (all measured live 2026-07-20, all `csv=true`, all min=1 so the
* long tail is included rather than silently dropped by Savant's `min=q`):
* 1. batter discipline 604 rows — k/bb/whiff/swing/CHASE/z-swing/sweetspot/
* barrel/hard-hit/best-speed
* 2. batter batted-ball 600 rows — exit velo (avg/max/ev50), launch angle,
* GB/FB-LD, barrels, ev95+
* 3. pitcher discipline 713 rows — k/bb/whiff/swing/chase, GB/FB/LD%,
* barrel/hard-hit allowed, ARM ANGLE
* 4. pitcher batted-ball 749 rows — contact quality allowed
* 5. pitch movement 677 rows — per pitch type: velo, break_x/z, induced
* break, usage — and PITCH_HAND (handedness)
*
* HONESTY DOCTRINE (inherited from savantAdapter / espnStatsAdapter):
* - A missing metric is NULL, never 0. `Number(null) === 0` is the fabrication
* trap this whole layer exists to avoid.
* - Any unrecognised shape → that field absent; never a guessed default.
* - Injectable (`opts.fetchImpl`) so tests never touch the network.
*
* COMMODITY, NOT MOAT: this data is public and every competitor can pull it in
* about a second. The edge is Layer 2 (archetype definitions) and Layer 3
* (projections) built on top — plus the settled ledger that proves them.
*/
const axios = require('axios');
const { __internals: savant } = require('./savantAdapter');
const { parseCsv, numOrNull } = savant;
const HTTP_TIMEOUT_MS = 60_000;
const DEFAULT_SEASON = Number(process.env.STATCAST_SEASON) || 2026;
const BASE = 'https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/leaderboard';
/** `min=1` deliberately: Savant's default `min=q` drops every non-qualified
* player, which would silently make a thin-sample player look absent rather
* than thin. We take the long tail and apply our OWN minimum-sample gate at
* the aggregate layer, where it is explicit and testable. */
const FEEDS = Object.freeze({
batter_discipline: (y) => `${BASE}/custom?year=${y}&type=batter&filter=&min=1&selections=pa,k_percent,bb_percent,whiff_percent,swing_percent,oz_swing_percent,z_swing_percent,sweet_spot_percent,barrel_batted_rate,hard_hit_percent,avg_best_speed,avg_hyper_speed&chart=false&x=pa&y=pa&r=no&chartType=beeswarm&sort=pa&sortDir=desc&csv=true`,
batter_batted_ball: (y) => `${BASE}/statcast?type=batter&year=${y}&position=&team=&min=1&csv=true`,
pitcher_discipline: (y) => `${BASE}/custom?year=${y}&type=pitcher&filter=&min=1&selections=p_formatted_ip,k_percent,bb_percent,whiff_percent,swing_percent,oz_swing_percent,groundballs_percent,flyballs_percent,linedrives_percent,barrel_batted_rate,hard_hit_percent,arm_angle&chart=false&x=p_formatted_ip&y=p_formatted_ip&r=no&chartType=beeswarm&sort=p_formatted_ip&sortDir=desc&csv=true`,
pitcher_batted_ball: (y) => `${BASE}/statcast?type=pitcher&year=${y}&position=&team=&min=1&csv=true`,
pitch_movement: (y) => `${BASE}/pitch-movement?year=${y}&team=&min=1&pitch_type=&hand=&csv=true`,
});
async function fetchText(url, opts = {}) {
if (opts.fetchImpl) return opts.fetchImpl(url);
const res = await axios.get(url, {
timeout: HTTP_TIMEOUT_MS,
responseType: 'text',
headers: { Accept: 'text/csv,*/*' },
// Savant occasionally returns a large body; don't let axios truncate.
maxContentLength: 64 * 1024 * 1024,
transformResponse: [(d) => d],
});
return typeof res.data === 'string' ? res.data : null;
}
/** Savant's first column is the literal header `last_name, first_name` — a
* comma INSIDE a quoted header. The value is likewise `"Last, First"`. */
function flipName(v) {
const s = String(v || '').trim();
if (!s) return null;
const i = s.indexOf(',');
if (i < 0) return s;
const last = s.slice(0, i).trim();
const first = s.slice(i + 1).trim();
return first ? `${first} ${last}` : last;
}
function idOf(row) {
const raw = row.player_id ?? row.pitcher_id ?? row.batter_id;
const n = Number(raw);
return Number.isFinite(n) && n > 0 ? n : null;
}
/** Row → { id, name, metrics } with EVERY metric strictly parsed (null, not 0). */
function normalizeRow(row, fields) {
const id = idOf(row);
if (id == null) return null;
const metrics = {};
for (const [out, src] of Object.entries(fields)) {
const v = numOrNull(row[src]);
if (v != null) metrics[out] = v;
}
return { id, name: flipName(row['last_name, first_name'] || row.last_name), metrics };
}
const BATTER_DISCIPLINE = {
pa: 'pa', k_pct: 'k_percent', bb_pct: 'bb_percent', whiff_pct: 'whiff_percent',
swing_pct: 'swing_percent', chase_pct: 'oz_swing_percent', z_swing_pct: 'z_swing_percent',
sweet_spot_pct: 'sweet_spot_percent', barrel_pct: 'barrel_batted_rate',
hard_hit_pct: 'hard_hit_percent', avg_best_speed: 'avg_best_speed',
};
const BATTED_BALL = {
bip: 'attempts', avg_launch_angle: 'avg_hit_angle', sweet_spot_pct_bb: 'anglesweetspotpercent',
max_exit_velo: 'max_hit_speed', avg_exit_velo: 'avg_hit_speed', ev50: 'ev50',
fb_ld_pct: 'fbld', gb_pct_bb: 'gb', max_distance: 'max_distance',
avg_distance: 'avg_distance', avg_hr_distance: 'avg_hr_distance',
ev95_pct: 'ev95percent', barrels: 'barrels', barrel_pct_bb: 'brl_percent', barrel_per_pa: 'brl_pa',
};
const PITCHER_DISCIPLINE = {
ip: 'p_formatted_ip', k_pct: 'k_percent', bb_pct: 'bb_percent', whiff_pct: 'whiff_percent',
swing_pct: 'swing_percent', chase_pct: 'oz_swing_percent', gb_pct: 'groundballs_percent',
fb_pct: 'flyballs_percent', ld_pct: 'linedrives_percent',
barrel_pct_allowed: 'barrel_batted_rate', hard_hit_pct_allowed: 'hard_hit_percent',
arm_angle: 'arm_angle',
};
function indexBy(rows, fields) {
const out = new Map();
for (const r of rows) {
const n = normalizeRow(r, fields);
if (!n) continue;
const prev = out.get(n.id);
out.set(n.id, prev ? { ...prev, ...n, metrics: { ...prev.metrics, ...n.metrics } } : n);
}
return out;
}
/**
* Pitch movement is LONG (one row per pitcher × pitch type). Collapses to a
* pitch-mix array per pitcher, sorted by usage. Also the only feed carrying
* HANDEDNESS (`pitch_hand`), so it doubles as the pitcher-handedness source.
*/
function indexPitchMix(rows) {
const out = new Map();
for (const r of rows) {
const id = idOf(r);
if (id == null) continue;
const entry = out.get(id) || { id, name: flipName(r['last_name, first_name']), throws: null, pitches: [] };
if (!entry.throws && r.pitch_hand) entry.throws = String(r.pitch_hand).trim().toUpperCase() || null;
// `pitch_per` arrives as a FRACTION (0.371), unlike every other _pct field
// on these feeds. Normalise to a percentage so downstream never has to know
// which endpoint a number came from.
const rawUsage = numOrNull(r.pitch_per);
const usage = rawUsage == null ? null : (rawUsage <= 1 ? Math.round(rawUsage * 1000) / 10 : rawUsage);
const type = (r.pitch_type || '').trim();
if (type) {
entry.pitches.push({
type,
name: (r.pitch_type_name || '').trim() || null,
usage_pct: usage,
velo: numOrNull(r.avg_speed),
break_z_induced: numOrNull(r.pitcher_break_z_induced),
break_x: numOrNull(r.pitcher_break_x),
thrown: numOrNull(r.pitches_thrown),
});
}
out.set(id, entry);
}
for (const e of out.values()) {
e.pitches.sort((a, b) => (b.usage_pct ?? 0) - (a.usage_pct ?? 0));
}
return out;
}
/**
* fetchSeason(season, opts) — pull all five feeds and return normalized indexes.
* Any single feed failing degrades to an EMPTY index for that feed (its metrics
* become absent) rather than failing the whole pull: partial mechanism data is
* honest, a failed night is not a reason to have none.
*/
async function fetchSeason(season = DEFAULT_SEASON, opts = {}) {
const get = async (name) => {
try {
const text = await fetchText(FEEDS[name](season), opts);
const rows = text ? parseCsv(text) : [];
return Array.isArray(rows) ? rows : [];
} catch (err) {
console.warn(`[statcast] feed ${name} failed:`, err.message);
return [];
}
};
const [bd, bbb, pd, pbb, mv] = await Promise.all([
get('batter_discipline'), get('batter_batted_ball'),
get('pitcher_discipline'), get('pitcher_batted_ball'), get('pitch_movement'),
]);
return {
season,
batterDiscipline: indexBy(bd, BATTER_DISCIPLINE),
batterBattedBall: indexBy(bbb, BATTED_BALL),
pitcherDiscipline: indexBy(pd, PITCHER_DISCIPLINE),
pitcherBattedBall: indexBy(pbb, BATTED_BALL),
pitchMix: indexPitchMix(mv),
counts: {
batter_discipline: bd.length, batter_batted_ball: bbb.length,
pitcher_discipline: pd.length, pitcher_batted_ball: pbb.length, pitch_movement: mv.length,
},
};
}
module.exports = {
fetchSeason,
DEFAULT_SEASON,
FEEDS,
__internals: {
flipName, idOf, normalizeRow, indexBy, indexPitchMix,
BATTER_DISCIPLINE, BATTED_BALL, PITCHER_DISCIPLINE, fetchText,
},
};
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'use strict';
/**
* STATCAST AGGREGATE SERVICE (Layer 1) — derivation + join + store.
*
* The AGGREGATE DERIVATION and IDENTITY BRIDGE boxes of the mechanism-data
* pattern (docs/MECHANISM-DATA.md). Pure where it can be, injectable
* everywhere, so tests never touch the network or the database.
*
* BACKFILL and REFRESH are the SAME operation: a full re-pull of the ~1,300-row
* aggregate set, upserted on (sport, season, source_id). That makes the nightly
* job idempotent and self-healing — a missed night self-corrects on the next
* run, with no incremental "who played today" bookkeeping to drift out of sync.
* At this volume the simple thing is also the robust thing.
*
* HONESTY RULES:
* - A metric the feed did not carry is ABSENT (null), never 0.
* - A player below the minimum sample keeps his row but is marked
* `sufficient: false` — thin is not the same as missing, and Layer 2 must
* be able to tell them apart.
* - A player we cannot join to our own roster still stores (player_key null)
* and joins later. Storing him is not a claim about him.
* - `updated_at` is written every run. Freshness is a truth property; the
* staleness alarm reads it.
*/
const { nameKey } = require('../utils/playerName');
const statcast = require('./adapters/statcastAdapter');
/** Minimum samples for a mechanism claim. Below these the row is stored but
* flagged insufficient — the explicit gate that prevents a 12-PA sample from
* being classified as confidently as a 400-PA one (the FLEX-at-weight-1.0
* failure, structurally prevented). */
const MIN_PA = Number(process.env.STATCAST_MIN_PA) || 50;
const MIN_IP = Number(process.env.STATCAST_MIN_IP) || 10;
const num = (v) => {
if (v == null || v === '') return null;
const n = typeof v === 'number' ? v : Number(v);
return Number.isFinite(n) ? n : null;
};
/**
* buildRows(season, feeds, opts) — PURE. Merges the five feed indexes into one
* row per player per role. No I/O.
*/
function buildRows(season, feeds, opts = {}) {
const sport = opts.sport || 'mlb';
const now = opts.now || new Date().toISOString();
const rows = [];
// ---- BATTERS -----------------------------------------------------------
const batterIds = new Set([...feeds.batterDiscipline.keys(), ...feeds.batterBattedBall.keys()]);
for (const id of batterIds) {
const d = feeds.batterDiscipline.get(id);
const b = feeds.batterBattedBall.get(id);
const m = { ...(b ? b.metrics : {}), ...(d ? d.metrics : {}) };
const name = (d && d.name) || (b && b.name) || null;
const pa = num(m.pa);
rows.push({
sport,
season,
source_id: id,
player_key: name ? nameKey(name) : null,
player_name: name,
role: 'batter',
throws: null,
bats: null, // roster join fills this; absent otherwise (never guessed)
sample_pa: pa,
sample_ip: null,
sample_bip: num(m.bip),
k_pct: num(m.k_pct),
bb_pct: num(m.bb_pct),
whiff_pct: num(m.whiff_pct),
swing_pct: num(m.swing_pct),
chase_pct: num(m.chase_pct),
barrel_pct: num(m.barrel_pct) ?? num(m.barrel_pct_bb),
hard_hit_pct: num(m.hard_hit_pct),
avg_exit_velo: num(m.avg_exit_velo),
max_exit_velo: num(m.max_exit_velo),
avg_launch_angle: num(m.avg_launch_angle),
sweet_spot_pct: num(m.sweet_spot_pct) ?? num(m.sweet_spot_pct_bb),
ev95_pct: num(m.ev95_pct),
arm_angle: null,
gb_pct: null,
fb_pct: null,
ld_pct: null,
pitch_mix: null,
metrics: m,
updated_at: now,
_sufficient: pa != null && pa >= MIN_PA,
});
}
// ---- PITCHERS ----------------------------------------------------------
const pitcherIds = new Set([
...feeds.pitcherDiscipline.keys(),
...feeds.pitcherBattedBall.keys(),
...feeds.pitchMix.keys(),
]);
for (const id of pitcherIds) {
const d = feeds.pitcherDiscipline.get(id);
const b = feeds.pitcherBattedBall.get(id);
const mix = feeds.pitchMix.get(id);
const m = { ...(b ? b.metrics : {}), ...(d ? d.metrics : {}) };
const name = (d && d.name) || (mix && mix.name) || (b && b.name) || null;
const ip = num(m.ip);
rows.push({
sport,
season,
source_id: id,
player_key: name ? nameKey(name) : null,
player_name: name,
role: 'pitcher',
// Handedness comes free on the movement feed — the ONLY feed that carries
// it. Absent when a pitcher has thrown too few tracked pitches to appear.
throws: (mix && mix.throws) || null,
bats: null,
sample_pa: null,
sample_ip: ip,
sample_bip: num(m.bip),
k_pct: num(m.k_pct),
bb_pct: num(m.bb_pct),
whiff_pct: num(m.whiff_pct),
swing_pct: num(m.swing_pct),
chase_pct: num(m.chase_pct),
barrel_pct: num(m.barrel_pct_allowed),
hard_hit_pct: num(m.hard_hit_pct_allowed),
avg_exit_velo: num(m.avg_exit_velo),
max_exit_velo: num(m.max_exit_velo),
avg_launch_angle: num(m.avg_launch_angle),
sweet_spot_pct: num(m.sweet_spot_pct_bb),
ev95_pct: num(m.ev95_pct),
arm_angle: num(m.arm_angle),
gb_pct: num(m.gb_pct),
fb_pct: num(m.fb_pct),
ld_pct: num(m.ld_pct),
pitch_mix: mix && mix.pitches && mix.pitches.length ? mix.pitches : null,
metrics: m,
updated_at: now,
_sufficient: ip != null && ip >= MIN_IP,
});
}
return rows;
}
/** Strip the internal flag before the row reaches Postgres. */
function toDbRow(r) {
const { _sufficient, ...rest } = r;
return rest;
}
/**
* refreshSeason(opts) — THE JOB. Backfill and nightly refresh are the same call.
*
* opts: { season, sport, supabase, fetchSeason, now, chunkSize }
* Returns a summary — never throws on a partial failure; a broken feed degrades
* to fewer rows, which is honest, rather than to a wrong number.
*/
async function refreshSeason(opts = {}) {
const season = opts.season || statcast.DEFAULT_SEASON;
const sport = opts.sport || 'mlb';
const started = opts.now || new Date().toISOString();
const fetchSeason = opts.fetchSeason || statcast.fetchSeason;
const feeds = await fetchSeason(season, opts);
const rows = buildRows(season, feeds, { sport, now: started });
const summary = {
ok: true,
sport,
season,
started_at: started,
feed_counts: feeds.counts || null,
rows: rows.length,
batters: rows.filter((r) => r.role === 'batter').length,
pitchers: rows.filter((r) => r.role === 'pitcher').length,
sufficient: rows.filter((r) => r._sufficient).length,
thin: rows.filter((r) => !r._sufficient).length,
joined: rows.filter((r) => r.player_key).length,
unjoined: rows.filter((r) => !r.player_key).length,
with_handedness: rows.filter((r) => r.throws).length,
written: 0,
};
if (!rows.length) {
// Every feed empty = the source failed, NOT "there is no mechanism data".
// Refuse to write, so a bad night can never blank a good table.
summary.ok = false;
summary.reason = 'no rows from source — refusing to write';
return summary;
}
const sb = opts.supabase || getServiceClient();
if (!sb) {
summary.ok = false;
summary.reason = 'no supabase client (env not configured)';
return summary;
}
// Chunked upsert — idempotent on the natural key, so re-running is a no-op
// beyond refreshing values and `updated_at`.
const chunk = opts.chunkSize || 500;
for (let i = 0; i < rows.length; i += chunk) {
const batch = rows.slice(i, i + chunk).map(toDbRow);
const { error } = await sb
.from('statcast_aggregates')
.upsert(batch, { onConflict: 'sport,season,source_id' });
if (error) {
summary.ok = false;
summary.reason = `upsert failed: ${error.message}`;
return summary;
}
summary.written += batch.length;
}
return summary;
}
function getServiceClient() {
try {
return require('../utils/supabase').getSupabaseServiceClient();
} catch {
return null;
}
}
/**
* getFreshness(opts) — how current is the mechanism tier?
* Reads the newest `updated_at`. Used by the staleness alarm and the status
* probe. Returns { updated_at, age_hours, rows } or nulls — never a guess.
*/
async function getFreshness(opts = {}) {
const sb = opts.supabase || getServiceClient();
if (!sb) return { updated_at: null, age_hours: null, rows: null };
const sport = opts.sport || 'mlb';
const { data, error } = await sb
.from('statcast_aggregates')
.select('updated_at')
.eq('sport', sport)
.order('updated_at', { ascending: false })
.limit(1);
if (error || !data || !data.length) return { updated_at: null, age_hours: null, rows: null };
const updated = data[0].updated_at;
const nowMs = opts.nowMs || Date.now();
const ageH = (nowMs - new Date(updated).getTime()) / 3_600_000;
return { updated_at: updated, age_hours: Math.round(ageH * 10) / 10 };
}
/**
* isStale(freshness, maxAgeHours) — PURE. The alarm predicate.
*
* NEVER-REFRESHED (updated_at null) is NOT stale — it is "not built yet", a
* different condition with a different fix. Conflating them would page on a
* fresh install and teach the operator to ignore the alarm.
*/
const MAX_AGE_HOURS = Number(process.env.STATCAST_MAX_AGE_HOURS) || 48;
function isStale(freshness, maxAgeHours = MAX_AGE_HOURS) {
if (!freshness || freshness.updated_at == null) return false;
return Number.isFinite(freshness.age_hours) && freshness.age_hours > maxAgeHours;
}
module.exports = {
refreshSeason,
buildRows,
getFreshness,
isStale,
MIN_PA,
MIN_IP,
MAX_AGE_HOURS,
__internals: { toDbRow, num, getServiceClient },
};
+29 -1
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@@ -286,6 +286,34 @@ function startSnapshotScheduler(opts = {}) {
} }
} catch (e) { console.warn('[harness] nightly run failed:', e.message); } } catch (e) { console.warn('[harness] nightly run failed:', e.message); }
// Session 68 — LAYER 1 MECHANISM DATA. Nightly full re-pull of the
// ~1,350-row Statcast aggregate set at STATCAST_HOUR_UTC. Backfill and
// refresh are the SAME call, upserted on the natural key, so the job is
// idempotent and self-healing: a missed night self-corrects on the next
// run with no incremental bookkeeping to drift. Kill switch: STATCAST=0.
try {
const statcastHour = Number(process.env.STATCAST_HOUR_UTC || 11); // ~7 AM ET, after every game is final
if (h === statcastHour && process.env.STATCAST !== '0') {
const agg = opts.statcastService || require('./services/statcastAggregateService');
const res = await agg.refreshSeason({});
console.log(`[statcast] nightly refresh — ok=${res.ok} rows=${res.rows ?? 'n/a'} written=${res.written ?? 0} joined=${res.joined ?? 'n/a'} thin=${res.thin ?? 'n/a'}${res.reason ? ` reason: ${res.reason}` : ''}`);
if (!res.ok) {
await notify(`Statcast refresh failed — ${res.reason || 'unknown'}. Mechanism data is not updating.`, {
title: 'VYNDR statcast', priority: 'high', tags: ['rotating_light'],
});
}
// Serving a stale aggregate as current is a quiet fabrication of
// currency, so staleness pages on its own — separate from a failed run,
// because a silently-not-scheduled job never produces a failure.
const fresh = await agg.getFreshness({});
if (agg.isStale(fresh)) {
await notify(`Statcast aggregates stale — last updated ${fresh.updated_at} (${fresh.age_hours}h). Mechanism data is being served as current.`, {
title: 'VYNDR statcast', priority: 'high', tags: ['rotating_light'],
});
}
}
} catch (e) { console.warn('[statcast] nightly refresh failed:', e.message); }
// Session 8 — quota check after each snapshot run: odds-api >= 80% alerts // Session 8 — quota check after each snapshot run: odds-api >= 80% alerts
// once per day (Redis-deduped). Never throws (guarded inside checkQuotaDaily). // once per day (Redis-deduped). Never throws (guarded inside checkQuotaDaily).
await opsWatch.checkQuotaDaily({ getStatus: getQuotaStatus, cacheGet, cacheSet, notify, now: () => now() }); await opsWatch.checkQuotaDaily({ getStatus: getQuotaStatus, cacheGet, cacheSet, notify, now: () => now() });
@@ -324,7 +352,7 @@ function startSnapshotScheduler(opts = {}) {
const interval = setInterval(() => { void tick(); void refreshTick(); }, 60_000); const interval = setInterval(() => { void tick(); void refreshTick(); }, 60_000);
if (interval.unref) interval.unref(); if (interval.unref) interval.unref();
console.log(`[snapshotScheduler] armed — SNAPSHOT_CRON=${process.env.SNAPSHOT_CRON}, hours=${HOURS_UTC.join(',')} UTC, intraday=${process.env.INTRADAY_REFRESH === '0' ? 'off' : `${REFRESH_MINUTES}m (slate hours)`}`); console.log(`[snapshotScheduler] armed — SNAPSHOT_CRON=${process.env.SNAPSHOT_CRON}, hours=${HOURS_UTC.join(',')} UTC, intraday=${process.env.INTRADAY_REFRESH === '0' ? 'off' : `${REFRESH_MINUTES}m (slate hours)`}, statcast=${process.env.STATCAST === '0' ? 'off' : `${process.env.STATCAST_HOUR_UTC || 11}h UTC`}`);
// Job 1 — state each sport's cadence at boot so "when does WNBA grade?" is // Job 1 — state each sport's cadence at boot so "when does WNBA grade?" is
// answerable from logs, and warn if a sport is scheduled at an hour the // answerable from logs, and warn if a sport is scheduled at an hour the
// scheduler never fires (it would silently never run). // scheduler never fires (it would silently never run).
@@ -0,0 +1,75 @@
-- Layer 1 — MECHANISM DATA (Session 68).
-- Per-player-per-season Statcast aggregates. The HOT tier of the two-tier
-- mechanism pattern: small, indexed, joined at classification time. Raw
-- per-pitch stays out of Postgres on purpose (one season ~0.85 GB vs this
-- table's ~2,300 rows) — see docs/MECHANISM-DATA.md.
--
-- The table is SPORT-SCOPED from day one: NBA tracking and NFL Next Gen land
-- in the same shape with a different `sport` and their own source ids.
create table if not exists statcast_aggregates (
sport text not null default 'mlb',
season int not null,
-- Source-native player id (MLB: MLBAM). The join key — an integer both
-- systems use natively, which is why the measured match rate is 100%.
source_id bigint not null,
-- Our canonical key. Nullable ON PURPOSE: a player Statcast has but we have
-- never graded still gets stored, and joins later.
player_key text,
player_name text,
role text not null check (role in ('batter','pitcher')),
-- Handedness: pitchers from the movement feed, batters from the roster join.
-- NULL = honest-absent, never guessed.
throws text,
bats text,
-- Sample size — the gate for every downstream claim.
sample_pa numeric,
sample_ip numeric,
sample_bip numeric,
-- Plate discipline / contact quality (shared vocabulary, both roles).
k_pct numeric,
bb_pct numeric,
whiff_pct numeric,
swing_pct numeric,
chase_pct numeric,
barrel_pct numeric,
hard_hit_pct numeric,
-- Batter mechanism.
avg_exit_velo numeric,
max_exit_velo numeric,
avg_launch_angle numeric,
sweet_spot_pct numeric,
ev95_pct numeric,
-- Pitcher mechanism.
arm_angle numeric,
gb_pct numeric,
fb_pct numeric,
ld_pct numeric,
pitch_mix jsonb,
-- Everything else the feeds carry, verbatim. Layer 2/3 can reach a field we
-- did not promote to a column WITHOUT a re-ingest.
metrics jsonb not null default '{}'::jsonb,
-- Freshness is a TRUTH property: the staleness alarm reads this, and no
-- surface may present a stale aggregate as current.
updated_at timestamptz not null default now(),
source text not null default 'baseball_savant',
primary key (sport, season, source_id)
);
create index if not exists statcast_agg_player_key_idx on statcast_aggregates (sport, season, player_key);
create index if not exists statcast_agg_role_idx on statcast_aggregates (sport, season, role);
create index if not exists statcast_agg_updated_idx on statcast_aggregates (updated_at desc);
alter table statcast_aggregates enable row level security;
-- Commodity public data: readable by anyone, written ONLY by the service role
-- (the pipeline). Same posture as the public ledger rows.
drop policy if exists statcast_agg_read on statcast_aggregates;
create policy statcast_agg_read on statcast_aggregates for select using (true);
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@@ -0,0 +1,202 @@
/* ============================================================
Session 68 — LAYER 1: mechanism-data ingestion.
Pure derivation + the honesty rules. No network, no database: the adapter's
fetch and the Supabase client are both injected.
============================================================ */
const svc = require('../../src/services/statcastAggregateService');
const adapter = require('../../src/services/adapters/statcastAdapter');
const { flipName, indexBy, indexPitchMix, BATTER_DISCIPLINE } = adapter.__internals;
/** Minimal feed indexes, shaped exactly like adapter.fetchSeason() output. */
function feeds({ batter = [], batterBB = [], pitcher = [], pitcherBB = [], mix = [] } = {}) {
return {
batterDiscipline: indexBy(batter, BATTER_DISCIPLINE),
batterBattedBall: indexBy(batterBB, adapter.__internals.BATTED_BALL),
pitcherDiscipline: indexBy(pitcher, adapter.__internals.PITCHER_DISCIPLINE),
pitcherBattedBall: indexBy(pitcherBB, adapter.__internals.BATTED_BALL),
pitchMix: indexPitchMix(mix),
counts: {},
};
}
const BELL = {
'last_name, first_name': 'Bell, Josh', player_id: '605137', pa: '387',
k_percent: '21.7', bb_percent: '7.5', whiff_percent: '24.8', swing_percent: '51',
oz_swing_percent: '30.6', barrel_batted_rate: '10.3', hard_hit_percent: '43.4',
};
const SKUBAL = {
'last_name, first_name': 'Skubal, Tarik', player_id: '669373', p_formatted_ip: '82.2',
k_percent: '30.5', whiff_percent: '32.1', groundballs_percent: '49', arm_angle: '46.9',
};
const SKUBAL_MIX = {
'last_name, first_name': 'Skubal, Tarik', pitcher_id: '669373', pitch_hand: 'L',
pitch_type: 'FF', pitch_type_name: '4-Seam Fastball', pitch_per: '0.371',
avg_speed: '96.7', pitcher_break_z_induced: '17.1', pitcher_break_x: '3.6', pitches_thrown: '463',
};
describe('adapter normalisation', () => {
it('flips Savant "Last, First" into a real name', () => {
expect(flipName('Bell, Josh')).toBe('Josh Bell');
expect(flipName('Guerrero Jr., Vladimir')).toBe('Vladimir Guerrero Jr.');
expect(flipName('Ohtani')).toBe('Ohtani');
expect(flipName('')).toBeNull();
});
it('normalises pitch usage from a FRACTION to a percentage', () => {
const [entry] = [...indexPitchMix([SKUBAL_MIX]).values()];
expect(entry.pitches[0].usage_pct).toBe(37.1); // not 0.371
expect(entry.throws).toBe('L');
});
it('a missing metric is ABSENT, never 0', () => {
const [entry] = [...indexBy([{ 'last_name, first_name': 'X, Y', player_id: '1' }], BATTER_DISCIPLINE).values()];
expect(entry.metrics.k_pct).toBeUndefined();
expect(entry.metrics.whiff_pct).toBeUndefined();
});
});
describe('buildRows — derivation', () => {
const rows = () => svc.buildRows(2026, feeds({
batter: [BELL], pitcher: [SKUBAL], mix: [SKUBAL_MIX],
}), { now: '2026-07-21T00:00:00.000Z' });
it('produces one row per player per role, keyed by the source id', () => {
const r = rows();
expect(r).toHaveLength(2);
expect(r.find((x) => x.role === 'batter').source_id).toBe(605137);
expect(r.find((x) => x.role === 'pitcher').source_id).toBe(669373);
});
it('joins to our canonical player_key', () => {
const b = rows().find((x) => x.role === 'batter');
expect(b.player_name).toBe('Josh Bell');
expect(b.player_key).toBe(require('../../src/utils/playerName').nameKey('Josh Bell'));
});
it('carries pitcher handedness from the movement feed', () => {
expect(rows().find((x) => x.role === 'pitcher').throws).toBe('L');
});
it('leaves batter handedness ABSENT (roster join, never guessed)', () => {
expect(rows().find((x) => x.role === 'batter').bats).toBeNull();
});
it('flags thin samples rather than dropping or inflating them', () => {
const thin = svc.buildRows(2026, feeds({
batter: [{ ...BELL, pa: '12' }], pitcher: [{ ...SKUBAL, p_formatted_ip: '2.1' }],
}), {});
expect(thin.every((r) => r._sufficient === false)).toBe(true);
// Thin is STORED, not dropped — "thin" and "missing" are different claims.
expect(thin).toHaveLength(2);
expect(thin[0].sample_pa).toBe(12);
});
it('a player with no sample at all is insufficient, not zero', () => {
const [r] = svc.buildRows(2026, feeds({ batter: [{ 'last_name, first_name': 'A, B', player_id: '9' }] }), {});
expect(r.sample_pa).toBeNull(); // NOT 0
expect(r._sufficient).toBe(false);
expect(r.k_pct).toBeNull();
});
it('keeps every raw metric in `metrics` so Layer 2/3 never needs a re-ingest', () => {
const b = rows().find((x) => x.role === 'batter');
expect(b.metrics.chase_pct).toBe(30.6);
expect(b.chase_pct).toBe(30.6);
});
});
describe('refreshSeason — the job', () => {
const okClient = () => {
const calls = [];
return {
calls,
from: () => ({ upsert: async (batch) => { calls.push(batch); return { error: null }; } }),
};
};
it('backfill and refresh are the SAME idempotent call', async () => {
const fetchSeason = async () => feeds({ batter: [BELL], pitcher: [SKUBAL], mix: [SKUBAL_MIX] });
const a = okClient(); const b = okClient();
const r1 = await svc.refreshSeason({ supabase: a, fetchSeason, now: '2026-07-21T00:00:00.000Z' });
const r2 = await svc.refreshSeason({ supabase: b, fetchSeason, now: '2026-07-21T00:00:00.000Z' });
expect(r1.ok).toBe(true);
expect(r1.written).toBe(2);
expect(JSON.stringify(a.calls)).toBe(JSON.stringify(b.calls)); // identical → idempotent
});
it('upserts on the natural key so a re-run never duplicates', async () => {
let opts = null;
const sb = { from: () => ({ upsert: async (_b, o) => { opts = o; return { error: null }; } }) };
await svc.refreshSeason({ supabase: sb, fetchSeason: async () => feeds({ batter: [BELL] }) });
expect(opts.onConflict).toBe('sport,season,source_id');
});
it('REFUSES to write when every feed is empty — a bad night cannot blank a good table', async () => {
const sb = okClient();
const out = await svc.refreshSeason({ supabase: sb, fetchSeason: async () => feeds({}) });
expect(out.ok).toBe(false);
expect(out.reason).toMatch(/refusing to write/);
expect(sb.calls).toHaveLength(0);
});
it('strips the internal flag before it reaches Postgres', async () => {
const sb = okClient();
await svc.refreshSeason({ supabase: sb, fetchSeason: async () => feeds({ batter: [BELL] }) });
expect(sb.calls[0][0]._sufficient).toBeUndefined();
});
it('reports the join rate — the honest-absent rate for the mechanism tier', async () => {
const out = await svc.refreshSeason({
supabase: okClient(),
fetchSeason: async () => feeds({ batter: [BELL, { player_id: '77', pa: '100' }] }),
});
expect(out.joined).toBe(1);
expect(out.unjoined).toBe(1); // no name → no key → stored, joins later
});
});
describe('staleness — never serve stale as fresh', () => {
it('fires past the max age', () => {
expect(svc.isStale({ updated_at: '2026-07-01T00:00:00Z', age_hours: 72 })).toBe(true);
expect(svc.isStale({ updated_at: '2026-07-20T00:00:00Z', age_hours: 6 })).toBe(false);
});
it('NEVER-BUILT is not STALE — different condition, different fix', () => {
// Paging on a fresh install teaches the operator to ignore the alarm.
expect(svc.isStale({ updated_at: null, age_hours: null })).toBe(false);
expect(svc.isStale(null)).toBe(false);
});
it('respects an explicit threshold', () => {
expect(svc.isStale({ updated_at: 'x', age_hours: 30 }, 24)).toBe(true);
expect(svc.isStale({ updated_at: 'x', age_hours: 30 }, 48)).toBe(false);
});
});
describe('scheduler + route wiring', () => {
const fs = require('fs');
const path = require('path');
const read = (r) => fs.readFileSync(path.join(__dirname, '..', '..', r), 'utf8');
it('is server-scheduled with a kill switch', () => {
const s = read('src/snapshotScheduler.js');
expect(s).toContain('STATCAST_HOUR_UTC');
expect(s).toMatch(/process\.env\.STATCAST !== '0'/);
expect(s).toContain('refreshSeason');
});
it('pages on BOTH a failed run and silent staleness', () => {
const s = read('src/snapshotScheduler.js');
expect(s).toMatch(/Statcast refresh failed/);
expect(s).toMatch(/Statcast aggregates stale/);
});
it('is induce-able on demand (never wait on the cron)', () => {
const s = read('src/routes/internal.js');
expect(s).toContain("router.post('/statcast/refresh'");
expect(s).toContain("router.get('/statcast/status'");
});
});
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