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report: proj-v1.1 takeable-edge proof — NOT PROVEN (n=45 MLB overs)

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Read-only proof. N-gate passed (overlap 45). proj-v1.1 edge-CLV partial
correlation controlling for price = 0.245 (n.s.); ~half the raw 0.455 is the
shared -fair_prob_lock term (mechanical). Champion out-predicts proj on the
same rows (champ partial-CLV 0.380 sig; champ-edge->hit 0.25 vs 0.12). Unders
contaminated (CLV -9.3); WNBA proj-v1.1 doesn't run. Promotion HELD; the
under-audit is moot since proj loses to the champion first.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.8 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>
Claude-Session: https://claude.ai/code/session_01VsztNChZ7vEvSR61AuMhD1
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Kev
2026-07-29 00:47:56 -04:00
parent b8ee216c62
commit 59b77cdef2
2 changed files with 31 additions and 1 deletions
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specs/STATE.md
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@@ -36,6 +36,18 @@
> over/under asymmetry ARE substantially stale-line artifacts on the unders (line 38-39
> below is now RESOLVED → confirmed, not "cannot determine"). Held: proj-v1.1 promotion +
> p_win/ev on served grades = the PROOF order, gated on this.
> ## 🧪 proj-v1.1 PROOF verdict 2026-07-29 (report-only): **NOT PROVEN**
> N-gate PASSED (overlap n=45 takeable MLB overs; the CLV repair made n≥30 reachable).
> Edge = `proj_p_over_line − proj_book_implied` (de-vigged, VERIFIED). Phase 2 partial
> correlation controlling for price: raw r(edge,CLV)=0.455 → **partial 0.245 (n.s.)** —
> ~half the raw signal is the shared −fair_prob_lock term (mechanical). The CHAMPION
> out-predicts proj on the SAME 45 rows (champ partial-CLV 0.380 SIG p≈0.01; champ-edge→hit
> 0.25 vs proj 0.12). MLB unders (n=20) contaminated (CLV −9.3, r=−0.03); WNBA — proj-v1.1
> doesn't run (MLB-only). **Verdict NOT PROVEN — proj-v1.1 loses to the champion before the
> under-audit even applies, so the audit is moot for its promotion.** The one defensible
> edge signal is the CHAMPION's p_win→CLV (0.380), itself still audit-gated. Promotion HELD;
> re-test needs ~20-25 more settled takeable MLB-over rows AND proj must beat the champion.
- **Redirect EXISTS + WIRED:** `closingCapture.buildCaptureRows`→`closing_captures` (append-only,
provenance: captured_at/book/line_type/both-prices/missed_reason) via `intradayRefreshService:221`
+ internal endpoint; `ledgerService.attachClosingProb`→`closing_prob` (de-vigs both raw sides,