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total_bases: every power factor is THEATER, and a units bug nearly hid it

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PREMISE CORRECTION: the per-archetype rescale is not "proven and live on
hits". gradeBands was built, gated and explicitly NOT wired two orders
ago -- no hits archetype slot reached sample, every band came back
base-rate, and only defense_by_direction proved pooled. This applies an
unvalidated-at-archetype-level method to a second stat.

FULL-HISTORY AUDIT: 988 clean settled TB rows (101 quarantined, 948 with
p_win), 341 players, and only 9 DISTINCT GAME DATES. No archetype slot
reaches 500 -- BOMBER 340, GHOST 147, BRUSH 55. Confirmed short on full
history, not a windowed artifact. The 9-date figure matters more than the
row count: ~49 games means any game- or venue-borne factor has almost no
replication here.

THE BASELINE HAD TO CHANGE, to a harder null. TB lines vary (1.5 on 559
rows, 0.5 on 345), so a per-line personal base rate would rest on ~2 rows
per player-line and would have to be invented. The null is the counter's
own p_win, which already prices the line -- beating the champion, not
beating "he's due".

THE UNITS BUG, caught, and it had produced the best result in the
programme. The first run reported barrel_rate at Brier -0.0095, the
largest improvement ever measured here. fromStatcastRow returns
barrel_pct as a FRACTION (0.06) while the raw table stores 0-100, so
(0.06 - 7.8) * 0.018 clamped EVERY row to the maximum negative shift.
That uniform downward push "improved" Brier purely by leaning on the
counter's over-prediction and contained no barrel information at all.
Same family as the S80 trap, inverted. exit_velo was a second bug -- the
column is avg_exit_velo, so it read null on every row and reported n=0. A
zero is a wiring bug until proven an honest absence.

GATE with units fixed, 138 cumulative tests:

  barrel_rate           n=707  shift 0.0364  brier +0.0036  THEATER
  exit_velo             n=707  shift 0.0229  brier +0.0022  THEATER
  hard_contact_allowed  n=707  shift 0.0260  brier +0.0033  THEATER
  park_weather_hit_type n=651  36 entities   PENDING (k<40)
  platoon_severity      n=481  PENDING (n<500)

THE PREDICTED INVERSION WENT THE OTHER WAY. BOMBER x barrel_rate is
+0.0114, the single most harmful cell in the table, exactly where the
strongest proof was predicted. GHOST +0.0012. All sample-blocked so not a
verdict, but recorded so it is not claimed later.

AND IT IS NOT DOUBLE-COUNTING -- tested and refuted: corr(barrel, p_win)
= -0.061, the counter is not pricing barrel at all. The duller answer is
corr(barrel, counter RESIDUAL) = -0.012. Barrel is a real skill that
carries no information about what the counter gets wrong at this line.
That also closes the S81 lead: hard_hit r=0.153 at n=295 drifted to 0.135
at n=383 and is THEATER at n=707.

THE REAL FINDING: TB is miscalibrated, not under-factored. mean p_win
0.5698 vs actual 0.5074, bias +0.0624. Held out on a strict time split
(fit < 2026-08-02, eval 651 unseen rows): raw 0.25007, constant de-bias
0.24740 (-0.00267), isotonic 0.24621 (-0.00386). Worth more than any
factor tested and the only intervention pointing the right way -- and
still refused at the corrected bar on 32 clusters. A CANDIDATE, not a
result. It also explains the units bug's fake success exactly: a blanket
downward shift is a crude de-bias.

NO RESCALE. Nothing proved, nothing certified calibrated, no slot at
sample -- every band would be the honest base-rate band gradeBands
already returns by construction.

Counter and frozen clusters byte-identical.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>
Claude-Session: https://claude.ai/code/session_01W1sivYNqY2TS5ftykmHBU9
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# total_bases — every power factor is THEATER, and the units bug nearly hid it
**Nothing proved. The predicted inversion did not appear. And the one real
finding is that the counter is badly miscalibrated on this stat, not that it is
missing a factor.**
---
## Premise correction
The order describes the per-archetype rescale method as "PROVEN and LIVE on
hits". It is neither. `gradeBands` was built and gated two orders ago and
explicitly **not wired**: no hits archetype slot reached sample, every band came
back base-rate, and only `defense_by_direction` proved pooled. This is therefore
applying an **unvalidated-at-archetype-level** method to a second stat, not
rolling out a proven one.
## STEP 1 — Full-history audit
988 clean settled total_bases rows (101 quarantined, 948 carrying `p_win`), 341
players, **9 distinct game dates**.
| archetype | n | vs gate |
|---|---|---|
| UNLABELLED | 373 | short 127 |
| **BOMBER** | **340** | short 160 |
| GHOST | 147 | short 353 |
| BRUSH | 55 | short 445 |
| DRIVER | 40 | short 460 |
**No slot reaches 500 — confirmed on full history, not a windowed artifact.**
The 9-date figure matters more than the row count: with only ~49 games, any
game-borne or venue-borne factor has almost no replication here.
## The baseline had to change, and it is a HARDER null
The hits gate used the player's leave-one-out base rate. That cannot be
reproduced: TB lines vary (1.5 on 559 rows, 0.5 on 345, 2.5 on 45), and a
player's rate of clearing 1.5 bases is a different quantity from 0.5. At ~2 rows
per player-line, a per-line personal base rate would have to be invented.
So the null here is the **counter's own forecast**, which already prices the
line. A factor must beat the champion, not "he's due" — strictly harder.
---
## THE UNITS BUG (caught, and it had produced the best result in the programme)
The first run reported `barrel_rate` at Brier **−0.0095**, the largest
improvement ever measured here. It was an artifact.
`fromStatcastRow` returns `barrel_pct` as a **FRACTION** (0.06); the raw table
stores 0–100. The factor was written against the percentage scale, so
`(0.06 − 7.8) × 0.018` clamped **every row** to the maximum negative shift. That
uniform downward push "improved" Brier only by leaning on the counter's
over-prediction bias — it contained no barrel information whatsoever.
Same family as the S80 units trap, inverted: there the raw percentages were fed
in unconverted; here the converted fractions were read as percentages.
`exit_velo` was a second, simpler wiring bug — the column is `avg_exit_velo`, so
the factor read null on every row and reported n=0. **A zero is a wiring bug
until proven an honest absence.**
---
## STEP 2/3 — The gate, units fixed (138 cumulative tests)
| factor | n | entities | clustered on | k | shift | Brier Δ | CI | verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| `barrel_rate` | 707 | 179 | game | 49 | 0.0364 | **+0.0036** | [−0.0025, +0.0101] | **THEATER** |
| `exit_velo` | 707 | 179 | game | 49 | 0.0229 | **+0.0022** | [−0.0030, +0.0072] | **THEATER** |
| `hard_contact_allowed` | 707 | 93 | game | 49 | 0.0260 | **+0.0033** | [−0.0019, +0.0082] | **THEATER** |
| `park_weather_hit_type` | 651 | **36** | treatment entity | 36 | 0.0070 | +0.0016 | [+0.0001, +0.0038] | PENDING — k<40 |
| `platoon_severity` | 481 | 120 | game | 49 | 0.0243 | +0.0006 | [−0.0045, +0.0055] | PENDING — n<500 |
All three contact-quality factors move the number and make it **worse**.
### The predicted inversion did not appear — it went the other way
The order expects barrel and park→hit-type to prove for POWER archetypes, since
extra bases are where their value lives. Measured:
| | BOMBER | GHOST |
|---|---|---|
| `barrel_rate` | **+0.0114** (most harmful cell in the table) | +0.0012 |
| `exit_velo` | +0.0067 | +0.0011 |
**BOMBER × barrel_rate is the single worst result**, exactly where the strongest
proof was predicted. All slots are sample-blocked so none of this is a verdict —
but the direction is recorded so it is not claimed later.
### Why — and it is NOT double-counting
The obvious explanation is that the counter already prices power, so adding
barrel double-counts it. **Tested and refuted:** corr(barrel_pct, p_win) =
**−0.061**. The counter is not pricing barrel at all.
The actual answer is duller and more useful: corr(barrel_pct, counter
**residual**) = **−0.012**. Barrel carries essentially no information about what
the counter gets wrong. It is a real skill that does not help at this line.
This also closes the S81 lead: `hard_hit_pct` marginal r = 0.153 at n=295, which
drifted to 0.135 at n=383 (S82) and is now THEATER at n=707. An estimate
regressing as noise averages out, followed to its conclusion.
---
## The real finding: TB is miscalibrated, not under-factored
```
mean p_win 0.5698 actual hit rate 0.5074 counter bias +0.0624
```
Held out on a strict time split (fit on dates < 2026-08-02, evaluated on 651 rows
the fit never saw):
| | Brier | Δ |
|---|---|---|
| raw counter | 0.25007 | — |
| constant de-bias | 0.24740 | −0.00267 |
| **isotonic** | **0.24621** | **−0.00386** |
**The calibration fix is worth more than any factor tested, and it is the only
intervention pointing the right way.** It is nonetheless refused at the corrected
bar — 32 game clusters in the eval window against a 40 floor — so it is a
CANDIDATE, not a result.
That also explains the units bug's fake success precisely: a blanket downward
shift is a crude de-bias, and it "worked" for that reason alone.
## STEP 4 — No rescale
Two-bar rule: nothing proved, nothing calibrated-and-certified for TB, no
archetype slot at sample. Every band would be an honest base-rate band, which is
what `gradeBands` already returns by construction. Running it would add nothing.
## Next, in order of value
1. **Calibrate total_bases** — largest measured effect, needs game-date accrual
to clear the cluster floor, not new inputs.
2. **Stop adding contact-quality factors to TB.** Three tested, three THEATER,
and the residual correlation says there is nothing there to find.
3. Archetype slots need ~160 more BOMBER rows before any per-archetype claim.
Counter and frozen clusters byte-identical.