MLB odds cache is keyed on the baseball date, not the UTC date

A cache entry answers "what is the market for THIS SLATE". For MLB the slate is
a BASEBALL DATE in America/New_York -- the same date gameBinder,
retentionService, ledgerService and read_natural_key all use. The key was built
from the UTC calendar date, so between 00:00Z and Eastern midnight the key
advanced while the slate did not:

  2026-08-29T01:03Z = 2026-08-28 21:03 ET
    slate date 2026-08-28,  key looked up  odds:mlb:2026-08-29

A value written earlier that evening under odds:mlb:2026-08-28 was then
unreachable -- not expired, ADDRESSED WRONG.

CAUSAL HONESTY: this is NOT retroactively the cause of the failed 01:03Z canary.
That run also used an 84-minute-old observation whose cache had passed its 1h
TTL. Two independent reasons; the date defect is real but not proven
counterfactual.

MLB ONLY. Every other sport keeps the UTC basis -- their date semantics are
unproven here and rekeying a cache they already write and read consistently
would invalidate live entries for no demonstrated defect.

Symmetry is structural, not conventional: the three readers that built the key
inline now ask `oddsService.getCacheKey(sport)`, so writer and readers cannot
diverge. The ET date comes from `scheduleService.gameDateET` -- the repository's
own Intl/America\/New_York primitive, now exported -- so DST is the zone
database's business and never offset arithmetic. An unresolvable clock REFUSES
rather than falling back to the other basis.

TTL truth is kept separate: a correctly addressed but expired entry still
misses, and CACHE_TTL is unchanged at 3600.

Provider priority, quota policy, retries, EARLY_RETURN_ODDS_ERROR semantics,
lineage lookup, game-date repair, canonical participant and intraday belief
integrity are all untouched.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>
Claude-Session: https://claude.ai/code/session_01CQJeAG8vcDoL5zkiaJyVb8

src/routes/bookComparison.js

@@ -38,9 +38,9 @@ async function readGroupedProps(sport) {
   const store = await cacheGet(`bookprices:${sport}`);
   if (store && Array.isArray(store.props) && store.props.length) return store.props;
 
-  const utcDate = new Date().toISOString().split('T')[0];
+  // The writer owns the key: MLB is keyed on its ET baseball date.
   const cache =
-    (await cacheGet(`odds:${sport}:${utcDate}`)) ??
+    (await cacheGet(require('../services/oddsService').getCacheKey(sport))) ??
     (await cacheGet(`odds:${sport}`));
   const flat = cache && Array.isArray(cache.props) ? cache.props : [];
   const by = new Map();

src/services/contentTemplateService.js

@@ -370,8 +370,9 @@ function defaultCollectors() {
     },
     getMovers: (sport) => lineSnapshotService.getBiggestMovers(sport, { limit: 10 }),
     getBestLines: async (sport) => {
-      const utc = new Date().toISOString().split('T')[0];
+      // The writer owns the key: MLB is keyed on its ET baseball date.
-      const cache = (await cacheGet(`odds:${sport}:${utc}`)) ?? (await cacheGet(`odds:${sport}`));
+      const key = require('./oddsService').getCacheKey(sport);
+      const cache = (await cacheGet(key)) ?? (await cacheGet(`odds:${sport}`));
       const props = Array.isArray(cache?.props) ? cache.props : [];
       return bookComparisonService.bestLines(props, { limit: 10 });
     },

src/services/oddsService.js

@@ -199,9 +199,52 @@ function getMarketsForSport(sport) {
 
 const BOOKMAKERS = 'draftkings,fanduel,betmgm,caesars,fanatics,bet365,hardrockbet,pointsbet,betrivers';
 
-function getCacheKey(sport) {
+/**
-  const now = new Date();
+ * ── CACHE DATE BASIS, PER SPORT ──────────────────────────────────────────
-  const date = now.toISOString().split('T')[0]; // UTC date
+ * A cache entry answers "what is the market for THIS SLATE". For MLB the slate
+ * is a BASEBALL DATE in America/New_York — that is the date `gameBinder`,
+ * `retentionService`, `ledgerService` and the natural key all use. The cache
+ * key was built from the UTC calendar date instead, so between 00:00Z and
+ * Eastern midnight (04:00Z under EDT, 05:00Z under EST) the key advanced while
+ * the slate did not:
+ *
+ *   2026-08-29T01:03Z  =  2026-08-28 21:03 ET
+ *     slate date  2026-08-28      key looked up  odds:mlb:2026-08-29
+ *
+ * A value written earlier that evening under `odds:mlb:2026-08-28` was then
+ * unreachable — not expired, ADDRESSED WRONG. That is a cache IDENTITY defect
+ * and it is repaired here for MLB only.
+ *
+ * DELIBERATELY NOT A MULTI-SPORT CONVERSION. Every other sport keeps the UTC
+ * basis: their date semantics are UNPROVEN here, and changing a key they are
+ * already writing and reading consistently would invalidate live caches for no
+ * demonstrated defect. Classification is recorded in the tranche audit.
+ *
+ * The ET date comes from `scheduleService.gameDateET` — the repository's own
+ * `Intl.DateTimeFormat('en-CA', { timeZone: 'America/New_York' })` primitive,
+ * so DST is handled by the zone database and never by offset arithmetic.
+ * Required lazily: `oddsService` is loaded early and this keeps the edge
+ * runtime-only.
+ *
+ * @param {string} sport
+ * @param {Date} [now] injectable clock — deterministic midnight/DST fixtures
+ */
+const ET_DATE_SPORTS = Object.freeze(['mlb']);
+
+function getCacheKey(sport, now = new Date()) {
+  const sp = String(sport || '').toLowerCase();
+  if (ET_DATE_SPORTS.includes(sp)) {
+    const { gameDateET } = require('./scheduleService');
+    const stamp = now instanceof Date
+      ? (Number.isNaN(now.getTime()) ? null : now.toISOString())
+      : now;
+    const et = stamp ? gameDateET(stamp) : null;
+    if (et) return `odds:${sport}:${et}`;
+    // An unparseable clock must not silently fall back to a DIFFERENT date
+    // basis for the same sport — that is the very asymmetry being repaired.
+    throw new TypeError(`getCacheKey: could not resolve an ET date for ${sport}`);
+  }
+  const date = (now instanceof Date ? now : new Date(now)).toISOString().split('T')[0]; // UTC date
   return `odds:${sport}:${date}`;
 }
 
@@ -565,6 +608,7 @@ module.exports = {
   fetchEventsFromApi,
   fetchEventOddsFromApi,
   getCacheKey,
+  ET_DATE_SPORTS,
   SPORT_KEYS,
   SOCCER_SPORT_KEYS,
   // Wave 2A — futures/outrights keys (separate budget; futuresService only).

src/services/scheduleService.js

@@ -166,13 +166,16 @@ async function enrichFlags(sport, date, games) {
   if (!Array.isArray(games) || games.length === 0) return games;
   const ymd = String(date).replace(/-/g, '');
 
-  // odds-api props cache — oddsService writes `odds:{sport}:{utcDate}`
+  // Props cache — `oddsService.getCacheKey(sport)` owns the key. For MLB that
-  // as `{ updated_at, props, spreads }`. The slate `date` is ET, so try
+  // is now the ET BASEBALL DATE; every other sport is still the UTC date. The
-  // the ET key first then the UTC key (they differ only past midnight).
+  // requested slate `date` is tried FIRST because it is more specific than
-  const utcDate = new Date().toISOString().split('T')[0];
+  // "today" (it can be a future or past slate), then the writer's own key.
+  // Lazy require: the key belongs to the writer, and asking it removes any
+  // chance of a reader inventing a different date basis.
+  const writerKey = require('./oddsService').getCacheKey(sport);
   const oddsCache =
     (await cacheGet(`odds:${sport}:${date}`)) ??
-    (await cacheGet(`odds:${sport}:${utcDate}`)) ??
+    (await cacheGet(writerKey)) ??
     (await cacheGet(`odds:${sport}`));
   const hasOdds = hasPropsData(oddsCache);
 
@@ -261,6 +264,10 @@ module.exports = {
   getSchedule,
   enrichFlags,
   todayET,
+  // The ET calendar date of an INSTANT. `todayET()` is this applied to now;
+  // exporting it lets the odds cache key be derived for an injected clock
+  // without a sixteenth copy of the America/New_York formatter.
+  gameDateET,
   getGameSummary,
   __internals: { normalizeEvent, fetchScheduleFromEspn, hasPropsData, hasLinesData, ESPN_SPORT_PATHS },
 };

tests/unit/mlbOddsCacheDate.test.js

@@ -0,0 +1,182 @@
+// MLB ODDS CACHE DATE CONTRACT.
+//
+// A cache entry answers "what is the market for THIS SLATE". For MLB the slate
+// is a BASEBALL DATE in America/New_York -- the same date `gameBinder`,
+// `retentionService`, `ledgerService` and `read_natural_key` all use. The key
+// was built from the UTC calendar date, so between 00:00Z and Eastern midnight
+// the key advanced while the slate did not, and a value written earlier that
+// evening became unreachable: not expired, ADDRESSED WRONG.
+//
+// TTL truth is deliberately kept SEPARATE. A correctly keyed but expired entry
+// must still miss.
+
+const odds = require('../../src/services/oddsService');
+const schedule = require('../../src/services/scheduleService');
+
+const at = (iso) => new Date(iso);
+
+describe('MLB is keyed on the ET baseball date', () => {
+  test('the UTC-midnight window: the key must not advance before Eastern midnight', () => {
+    // EDT: Eastern midnight is 04:00Z.
+    expect(odds.getCacheKey('mlb', at('2026-08-28T23:59:59Z'))).toBe('odds:mlb:2026-08-28');
+    expect(odds.getCacheKey('mlb', at('2026-08-29T00:00:00Z'))).toBe('odds:mlb:2026-08-28');
+    // The exact instant of the failed canary.
+    expect(odds.getCacheKey('mlb', at('2026-08-29T01:03:00Z'))).toBe('odds:mlb:2026-08-28');
+    expect(odds.getCacheKey('mlb', at('2026-08-29T03:59:59Z'))).toBe('odds:mlb:2026-08-28');
+    // Eastern midnight: NOW it advances.
+    expect(odds.getCacheKey('mlb', at('2026-08-29T04:00:00Z'))).toBe('odds:mlb:2026-08-29');
+  });
+
+  test('EST: Eastern midnight is 05:00Z, and nothing hardcodes an offset', () => {
+    // January -- standard time. A fixed -04:00 would roll an hour early here.
+    expect(odds.getCacheKey('mlb', at('2026-01-15T23:59:59Z'))).toBe('odds:mlb:2026-01-15');
+    expect(odds.getCacheKey('mlb', at('2026-01-16T00:00:00Z'))).toBe('odds:mlb:2026-01-15');
+    expect(odds.getCacheKey('mlb', at('2026-01-16T04:00:00Z'))).toBe('odds:mlb:2026-01-15');
+    expect(odds.getCacheKey('mlb', at('2026-01-16T04:59:59Z'))).toBe('odds:mlb:2026-01-15');
+    expect(odds.getCacheKey('mlb', at('2026-01-16T05:00:00Z'))).toBe('odds:mlb:2026-01-16');
+  });
+
+  test('the DST transitions themselves, read from the zone database', () => {
+    // Spring forward 2026-03-08 (EST -> EDT). The night BEFORE still rolls at 05:00Z.
+    expect(odds.getCacheKey('mlb', at('2026-03-08T04:59:59Z'))).toBe('odds:mlb:2026-03-07');
+    expect(odds.getCacheKey('mlb', at('2026-03-08T05:00:00Z'))).toBe('odds:mlb:2026-03-08');
+    // The night AFTER is EDT, so it rolls at 04:00Z.
+    expect(odds.getCacheKey('mlb', at('2026-03-09T03:59:59Z'))).toBe('odds:mlb:2026-03-08');
+    expect(odds.getCacheKey('mlb', at('2026-03-09T04:00:00Z'))).toBe('odds:mlb:2026-03-09');
+    // Fall back 2026-11-01 (EDT -> EST).
+    expect(odds.getCacheKey('mlb', at('2026-11-01T03:59:59Z'))).toBe('odds:mlb:2026-10-31');
+    expect(odds.getCacheKey('mlb', at('2026-11-01T04:00:00Z'))).toBe('odds:mlb:2026-11-01');
+    expect(odds.getCacheKey('mlb', at('2026-11-02T04:59:59Z'))).toBe('odds:mlb:2026-11-01');
+    expect(odds.getCacheKey('mlb', at('2026-11-02T05:00:00Z'))).toBe('odds:mlb:2026-11-02');
+  });
+
+  test('the ET date comes from the repository primitive, not offset arithmetic', () => {
+    // Same instant, same answer, through the schedule module's own helper.
+    for (const iso of ['2026-08-29T01:03:00Z', '2026-01-16T04:30:00Z', '2026-03-08T06:00:00Z']) {
+      expect(odds.getCacheKey('mlb', at(iso))).toBe(`odds:mlb:${schedule.gameDateET(iso)}`);
+    }
+  });
+
+  test('an unresolvable clock REFUSES rather than silently using the other basis', () => {
+    expect(() => odds.getCacheKey('mlb', new Date('not-a-date'))).toThrow(/could not resolve an ET date/);
+  });
+});
+
+describe('no other sport changed', () => {
+  test('every non-MLB sport keeps the UTC basis, including across Eastern midnight', () => {
+    for (const sp of ['nba', 'wnba', 'nfl', 'nhl', 'soccer', 'ncaab']) {
+      expect(odds.getCacheKey(sp, at('2026-08-29T01:03:00Z'))).toBe(`odds:${sp}:2026-08-29`);
+      expect(odds.getCacheKey(sp, at('2026-08-28T23:59:59Z'))).toBe(`odds:${sp}:2026-08-28`);
+    }
+    expect(odds.ET_DATE_SPORTS).toEqual(['mlb']);
+  });
+});
+
+describe('writer / reader symmetry', () => {
+  // The defect class is an ET writer with a UTC reader (or the reverse). The
+  // only durable guarantee is that BOTH ask the same function, so the readers
+  // are asserted to call it rather than to construct a key of their own.
+  const fs = require('fs');
+  const path = require('path');
+  const strip = (f) => fs.readFileSync(path.join(__dirname, '../../', f), 'utf8')
+    .replace(/\/\*[\s\S]*?\*\//g, '').replace(/^\s*\/\/.*$/gm, '');
+
+  test('no reader builds an odds cache key from its own date', () => {
+    for (const f of ['src/services/contentTemplateService.js', 'src/routes/bookComparison.js',
+      'src/services/scheduleService.js']) {
+      const src = strip(f);
+      expect(src).toMatch(/getCacheKey\(sport\)/);
+      // The hand-rolled `odds:${sport}:${someLocalDate}` shape must be gone.
+      expect(src).not.toMatch(/`odds:\$\{sport\}:\$\{utc/);
+    }
+  });
+
+  test('the writer and every reader resolve the SAME key for one instant', () => {
+    const now = at('2026-08-29T01:03:00Z');
+    const writer = odds.getCacheKey('mlb', now);
+    expect(writer).toBe('odds:mlb:2026-08-28');
+    // Readers call getCacheKey with no clock, so prove the no-clock default is
+    // the same function of "now" rather than a second implementation.
+    expect(odds.getCacheKey('mlb')).toBe(`odds:mlb:${schedule.todayET()}`);
+  });
+});
+
+describe('TTL truth is independent of key truth', () => {
+  // A correctly addressed entry that has expired must still miss. Repairing an
+  // address must never be allowed to look like extending freshness.
+  const makeRedis = (store) => ({
+    get: async (k) => (Object.prototype.hasOwnProperty.call(store, k) ? store[k] : null),
+  });
+
+  test('correct key + live entry -> HIT; expired -> MISS; wrong date -> MISS', async () => {
+    const key = odds.getCacheKey('mlb', at('2026-08-29T01:03:00Z'));
+    const live = makeRedis({ [key]: JSON.stringify({ updated_at: 'x', props: [{ p: 1 }] }) });
+    expect(await live.get(key)).toBeTruthy();
+
+    // Expiry is Redis's, not ours: an absent key is a miss however correct it is.
+    const expired = makeRedis({});
+    expect(await expired.get(key)).toBeNull();
+
+    // Yesterday's entry does not answer today's lookup.
+    const yesterday = makeRedis({ 'odds:mlb:2026-08-27': JSON.stringify({ props: [{ p: 1 }] }) });
+    expect(await yesterday.get(key)).toBeNull();
+  });
+
+  test('CACHE_TTL is untouched by this repair', () => {
+    expect(odds.CACHE_TTL).toBe(3600);
+  });
+});
+
+describe('cross-baseball-date isolation', () => {
+  test('date N cache cannot satisfy date N+1 once Eastern midnight passes', () => {
+    const beforeMidnight = odds.getCacheKey('mlb', at('2026-08-29T03:59:59Z'));
+    const afterMidnight = odds.getCacheKey('mlb', at('2026-08-29T04:00:00Z'));
+    expect(beforeMidnight).toBe('odds:mlb:2026-08-28');
+    expect(afterMidnight).toBe('odds:mlb:2026-08-29');
+    expect(beforeMidnight).not.toBe(afterMidnight);
+  });
+
+  test('the ROOT-CAUSE fixture: the value written that evening is now reachable', () => {
+    // 2026-08-28 21:30 ET, inside TTL, written for baseball date 2026-08-28.
+    const writeKey = odds.getCacheKey('mlb', at('2026-08-29T01:30:00Z'));
+    // The 01:03Z-style reader, 27 minutes later, same baseball date.
+    const readKey = odds.getCacheKey('mlb', at('2026-08-29T01:57:00Z'));
+    expect(writeKey).toBe('odds:mlb:2026-08-28');
+    expect(readKey).toBe(writeKey);            // POST-REPAIR: same address.
+    // PRE-REPAIR both sides used the UTC date, which had already rolled.
+    const preRepair = at('2026-08-29T01:57:00Z').toISOString().split('T')[0];
+    expect(`odds:mlb:${preRepair}`).toBe('odds:mlb:2026-08-29');
+    expect(`odds:mlb:${preRepair}`).not.toBe(writeKey);
+  });
+});
+
+describe('preservation: this is a cache IDENTITY repair only', () => {
+  const fs = require('fs');
+  const path = require('path');
+  const src = (f) => fs.readFileSync(path.join(__dirname, '../../', f), 'utf8');
+
+  test('provider priority, quota and retry policy are untouched', () => {
+    const s = src('src/services/oddsService.js');
+    expect(s).toContain("require('./adapters/proplineAdapter')");
+    expect(s).toContain("require('./quotaTracker')");
+    expect(odds.CACHE_TTL).toBe(3600);
+  });
+
+  test('the frozen repairs are still present', () => {
+    expect(src('src/services/gameBinder.js')).toContain('if (!p.game_date) p.game_date = etFast;');
+    expect(src('src/services/event/eventIdentity.js')).toMatch(/ids\.size !== 1/);
+    expect(src('src/services/intradayRefreshService.js')).toContain('BELIEF_FIELDS');
+    // Lineage lookup design is frozen in this tranche.
+    const ret = src('src/services/retentionService.js');
+    expect(ret).toContain('familyScopesFrom');
+    expect(ret).toContain('isValidLineageAction');
+    expect(ret).toContain("label: 'attachLineage.fetchExisting'");
+  });
+
+  test('intraday still resolves its odds through the same acquisition seam', () => {
+    const s = src('src/services/intradayRefreshService.js');
+    expect(s).toContain("require('./oddsService').getOdds");
+    // No belief mutation was reintroduced.
+    expect(s.replace(/\/\*[\s\S]*?\*\//g, '').replace(/^\s*\/\/.*$/gm, '')).not.toMatch(/applyRevision/);
+  });
+});