Item 7 — public accuracy reads the CLEAN ledger; BEAT CLOSE hidden until C4

Kev's call: the 30D accuracy surfaces must read TRUTH, not a cache that can't be
filtered. My earlier degraded-row exclusion only touched getModelAggregate
(Postgres); the public buckets/badge still read outcomeService (Redis outcome
log), which counts degraded projection-0 outcomes and has no field to filter on.

- /api/accuracy (AccuracyBadge) + /api/ledger/accuracy (buckets/ModelRecord)
  now source from the clean Postgres ledger aggregate via new
  ledgerService.getAccuracyView + accuracyBucketsFromAgg (model_value > 0
  excludes degraded rows). Same response shapes → no frontend change. Redis
  outcome log is now read by nothing public; it can age out or be rebuilt.

- BEAT CLOSE is a MEASURED-WRONG ZERO: captureClosing re-records the locked line
  as the "closing" line, so clv is flat on the whole sample and beat_close reads
  0% (comparing a number to itself). Full write-up: specs/audit-data/
  clv-capture-broken.md (the fix belongs to C4). Until then, beat_close_pct +
  clv_distribution are SUPPRESSED at the source (getModelAggregate, gated by
  clvCaptureReliable() / CLV_CAPTURE_RELIABLE=1). Every public surface already
  renders BEAT CLOSE only when non-null, so they all hide it now — no wrong zero
  anywhere. HIT RATE (real) is unaffected.

Suite 271/3261 green, web build exit 0.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.8 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>

tests/integration/accuracy.test.js

@@ -1,7 +1,8 @@
 'use strict';
 
-// Session 55 — the self-learning loop's public read endpoints. Redis is mocked
-// so these run offline; the store is seeded per-test via cacheGet.
+// Truth-Everywhere Part 2 (item 7) — the public accuracy endpoints now read the
+// CLEAN Postgres ledger aggregate (getModelAggregate / getAccuracyView), NOT the
+// Redis outcome log. We partial-mock ledgerService so these run offline.
 
 const request = require('supertest');
 
@@ -14,12 +15,37 @@ jest.mock('../../src/utils/redis', () => ({
   isDegraded: () => false,
 }));
 
+jest.mock('../../src/services/ledgerService', () => {
+  const actual = jest.requireActual('../../src/services/ledgerService');
+  return {
+    ...actual,
+    getAccuracyView: jest.fn(),
+    getModelAggregate: jest.fn(),
+    accuracyBucketsFromAgg: actual.accuracyBucketsFromAgg, // keep the real bucketer
+  };
+});
+
+const ledgerService = require('../../src/services/ledgerService');
 const app = require('../../src/app');
 
-beforeEach(() => { mockStore = {}; });
+const EMPTY_AGG = {
+  window_days: 30, min_sample: 20, settled: 0, hits: 0, misses: 0, pushes: 0,
+  hit_pct: null, beat_close_pct: null, clv_distribution: null, by_tier: {}, pending: 0,
+};
+
+beforeEach(() => {
+  mockStore = {};
+  ledgerService.getAccuracyView.mockReset();
+  ledgerService.getModelAggregate.mockReset();
+});
 
 describe('GET /api/accuracy', () => {
-  test('cold cache → valid empty-safe shape', async () => {
+  test('cold (no data) → valid empty-safe shape from the ledger view', async () => {
+    ledgerService.getAccuracyView.mockResolvedValue({
+      overall: { sport: 'overall', window_days: 30, sample: 0, min_sample: 20,
+        overall: { hits: 0, misses: 0, pushes: 0, total: 0, pct: null }, byGrade: {} },
+      sports: {}, min_sample: 20, updated_at: null,
+    });
     const res = await request(app).get('/api/accuracy');
     expect(res.status).toBe(200);
     expect(res.body).toHaveProperty('overall');
@@ -27,13 +53,14 @@ describe('GET /api/accuracy', () => {
     expect(res.body.min_sample).toBeGreaterThan(0);
   });
 
-  test('returns the persisted record when present', async () => {
-    mockStore['accuracy:overall'] = {
-      sport: 'overall', updated_at: '2026-07-10T00:00:00Z', window_days: 30, sample: 20,
-      overall: { hits: 14, misses: 6, pushes: 0, total: 20, pct: 70 },
-      byGrade: { 'A': { hits: 8, misses: 2, pushes: 0, total: 10, pct: 80 } },
-    };
-    mockStore['accuracy:mlb'] = mockStore['accuracy:overall'];
+  test('returns the clean ledger record when present', async () => {
+    ledgerService.getAccuracyView.mockResolvedValue({
+      overall: { sport: 'overall', window_days: 30, sample: 20, min_sample: 20,
+        overall: { hits: 14, misses: 6, pushes: 0, total: 20, pct: 70 },
+        byGrade: { A: { hits: 8, misses: 2, pushes: 0, total: 10, pct: 80 } } },
+      sports: { mlb: { sport: 'mlb', overall: { hits: 14, misses: 6, pushes: 0, total: 20, pct: 70 }, byGrade: {} } },
+      min_sample: 20, updated_at: null,
+    });
     const res = await request(app).get('/api/accuracy');
     expect(res.body.overall.overall.pct).toBe(70);
     expect(res.body.sports.mlb).toBeTruthy();
@@ -41,25 +68,25 @@ describe('GET /api/accuracy', () => {
 });
 
 describe('GET /api/ledger/accuracy', () => {
-  test('returns grade-tier buckets from the accuracy record', async () => {
-    mockStore['accuracy:overall'] = {
-      sport: 'overall', updated_at: '2026-07-10T00:00:00Z', window_days: 30, sample: 15,
-      overall: { hits: 10, misses: 5, pushes: 0, total: 15, pct: 67 },
-      byGrade: {
-        'A+': { hits: 3, misses: 0, pushes: 0, total: 3, pct: 100 },
-        'A': { hits: 5, misses: 2, pushes: 0, total: 7, pct: 71 },
-        'B': { hits: 2, misses: 3, pushes: 0, total: 5, pct: 40 },
+  test('returns grade-tier buckets from the clean ledger aggregate', async () => {
+    ledgerService.getModelAggregate.mockResolvedValue({
+      ...EMPTY_AGG, settled: 30, hits: 20, misses: 10, hit_pct: 67,
+      by_tier: {
+        'A+': { settled: 3, hits: 3, misses: 0, pushes: 0, hit_pct: null },
+        'A': { settled: 22, hits: 15, misses: 7, pushes: 0, hit_pct: 68 },
+        'B': { settled: 5, hits: 2, misses: 3, pushes: 0, hit_pct: null },
       },
-    };
+    });
     const res = await request(app).get('/api/ledger/accuracy');
     expect(res.status).toBe(200);
     expect(Array.isArray(res.body.buckets)).toBe(true);
     const grades = res.body.buckets.map((b) => b.grade);
-    expect(grades).toContain('A+');
-    expect(grades).toContain('A');
+    expect(grades).toContain('A'); // A+ folds into A in the public strip
+    expect(res.body.overall.pct).toBe(67);
   });
 
-  test('cold cache → empty buckets, never 500', async () => {
+  test('empty aggregate → empty buckets, never 500', async () => {
+    ledgerService.getModelAggregate.mockResolvedValue({ ...EMPTY_AGG });
     const res = await request(app).get('/api/ledger/accuracy');
     expect(res.status).toBe(200);
     expect(res.body.buckets).toEqual([]);

tests/unit/ledgerAggregateScope.test.js

@@ -65,6 +65,7 @@ describe('getModelAggregate scoping', () => {
   });
 
   test('user scope renders percentages at n≥20 like the public record', async () => {
+    process.env.CLV_CAPTURE_RELIABLE = '1'; // exercise the CLV math (suppressed by default, item 7)
     const rows = [
       ...Array.from({ length: 14 }, () => ({ outcome: 'hit', clv_result: 'beat', grade: 'A' })),
       ...Array.from({ length: 7 }, () => ({ outcome: 'miss', clv_result: 'faded', grade: 'B' })),
@@ -73,5 +74,6 @@ describe('getModelAggregate scoping', () => {
     expect(agg.settled).toBe(21);
     expect(agg.hit_pct).toBe(Math.round((14 / 21) * 100));
     expect(agg.beat_close_pct).toBe(Math.round((14 / 21) * 100));
+    delete process.env.CLV_CAPTURE_RELIABLE;
   });
 });

tests/unit/ledgerService.test.js

@@ -206,6 +206,27 @@ describe('captureClosing — real feed values only', () => {
 });
 
 describe('getModelAggregate — never a % under min sample', () => {
+  // beat_close/CLV are suppressed by default (item 7 — CLV capture broken until
+  // C4). These tests exercise the CLV MATH, so enable the reliable flag; a
+  // separate test below locks the default-suppressed behavior.
+  beforeAll(() => { process.env.CLV_CAPTURE_RELIABLE = '1'; });
+  afterAll(() => { delete process.env.CLV_CAPTURE_RELIABLE; });
+
+  test('beat_close is SUPPRESSED by default until C4 (CLV capture broken)', async () => {
+    delete process.env.CLV_CAPTURE_RELIABLE; // default state
+    const sb = fakeSb();
+    sb._state.selectResults = [[
+      ...Array.from({ length: 13 }, () => ({ outcome: 'hit', clv_result: 'beat' })),
+      ...Array.from({ length: 7 }, () => ({ outcome: 'miss', clv_result: 'faded' })),
+    ]];
+    sb._state.countResult = 0;
+    const agg = await ledger.getModelAggregate({ sb });
+    expect(agg.hit_pct).toBe(65);            // hit rate still renders (it's real)
+    expect(agg.beat_close_pct).toBeNull();   // BEAT CLOSE hidden — measured-wrong
+    expect(agg.clv_distribution).toBeNull();
+    process.env.CLV_CAPTURE_RELIABLE = '1';  // restore for the rest of the block
+  });
+
   test('below 20 settles → hit_pct/beat_close_pct null, counts real', async () => {
     const sb = fakeSb();
     sb._state.selectResults = [
@@ -296,6 +317,9 @@ describe('indexProps — prefers a book row with both sides priced', () => {
 // centralized HERE (getModelAggregate) — consumers never re-derive it.
 describe('getModelAggregate — clv_distribution (n>=20 gate lives in the service)', () => {
   const { clvBucketIndex, CLV_BUCKETS } = ledger.__internals;
+  // CLV suppressed by default (item 7); enable to test the distribution math.
+  beforeAll(() => { process.env.CLV_CAPTURE_RELIABLE = '1'; });
+  afterAll(() => { delete process.env.CLV_CAPTURE_RELIABLE; });
 
   test('below 20 settles → clv_distribution is null (never a small-sample chart)', async () => {
     const sb = fakeSb();