S63 fingerprint: probability layer verified live (p_win/ev_pct/model_odds)

POST /api/analyze/prop on prod returns p_win 0.523, ev_pct -10.4, model_odds -109, confidence_basis grade_band, value false — every one of which was absent on 100% of grades before this change. The value triplet is whole (book -140 / fair -125 / model -109) and correctly refuses to call a -140 price value when the model gives it 52.3%. A-emission still pending the 01:00 UTC snapshot (opp_rank_stat populates only when refreshTeamStats runs in a snapshot). MARKETING HOLD on A-RATED copy stays until that passes. edge_pct scale remains broken (U-deg pt 2). Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.8 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com> Claude-Session: https://claude.ai/code/session_01SmNjJAwEnqHPtXbvSZR8kA
2026-07-19 18:58:12 -04:00
parent 1a94ef5fcf
commit a80868c4eb
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@@ -376,5 +376,40 @@ this hold only against live data.

 ---

+## ✅ PRODUCTION FINGERPRINT — 2026-07-19 ~22:50 UTC
+
+`POST /api/analyze/prop` (grades on demand, so it exercises the repaired path
+immediately rather than waiting for the snapshot cron):
+
+```
+Gunnar Henderson hits o0.5 @ -140 (fanduel)
+  grade            : B
+  confidence       : 57
+  confidence_basis : grade_band     <- NEW (truth label)
+  p_win            : 0.523          <- WAS ABSENT on 100% of grades
+  ev_pct           : -10.4          <- WAS ABSENT
+  model_odds       : -109           <- WAS ABSENT (triplet was a duet)
+  value            : false          <- WAS ABSENT
+  takeable         : true
+  book_odds        : -140
+  fair_odds        : -125
+```
+
+**The value triplet is finally whole: book −140 · vig-free −125 · model −109.**
+And it tells the truth — the model gives 52.3 % where the de-vigged market says
+55.6 %, so EV is −10.4 % and `value` is correctly FALSE. The engine now refuses to
+call a bad price good, which is the entire point of the train.
+
+Still broken, unchanged by this work: `edge_pct: 100` on that same response — the
+edge scale remains on a bad scale (open item, `U-deg` part 2).
+
+### Outstanding: A-emission in production
+`opp_rank_stat` only populates when `refreshTeamStats` runs inside a snapshot, and
+the next cron slot is 01:00 UTC. Until then the live ceiling is still +3.0, so **A
+cannot yet emit in prod**. Re-measure the ledger grade distribution after that slot
+— that is the remaining proof, and the MARKETING HOLD stays until it passes.
+
+---
+
 *Diagnosed + resolved 2026-07-19 (Session 63). Verified on real props; production
 A-emission fingerprint outstanding.*