Session 7j: Soccer intelligence - 9 leagues, 11 signals, 6 traps, poller, prefetch, 131 new tests (1173 total)

2026-06-10 14:50:13 -04:00
parent b9084408bf
commit ad5ea8d5a8
28 changed files with 3175 additions and 49 deletions
@@ -30,57 +30,132 @@ function explainErrors(errors) {
  return errors.map((e) => ERROR_EXPLANATIONS[e] || `Data gap: ${e}.`).join(' ');
 }

+// Soccer reasoning — different signals than NBA (xG, penalty role,
+// altitude, referee, minutes). Concrete sentences from real values;
+// nothing fires unless the underlying feature is non-null.
+function buildSoccerReasoningLines(features = {}, meta = {}, prop = {}) {
+  const lines = [];
+  const statType = prop.stat_type || '';
+
+  if (Number.isFinite(features.goals_per_90)) {
+    lines.push(`${prop.player || 'Player'} scores ${features.goals_per_90.toFixed(2)} goals per 90 minutes.`);
+  } else if (Number.isFinite(features.l5_avg)) {
+    lines.push(`${prop.player || 'Player'} is averaging ${features.l5_avg.toFixed(2)} ${statType} over his last 5 matches.`);
+  }
+
+  if (Number.isFinite(features.xg_per_90)) {
+    const delta = features.xg_delta;
+    let trend = 'tracking expectations';
+    if (Number.isFinite(delta)) {
+      if (delta > 0.2) trend = 'overperforming — regression risk';
+      else if (delta < -0.2) trend = 'underperforming — breakout candidate';
+    }
+    lines.push(`Expected goals (xG): ${features.xg_per_90.toFixed(2)} per 90 — ${trend}.`);
+  }
+
+  if (features.is_penalty_taker) {
+    lines.push('Designated penalty taker — adds ~0.15 goals per 90 to base rate.');
+  }
+  if (features.takes_free_kicks && (statType === 'goals' || statType === 'shots' || statType === 'shots_on_target')) {
+    lines.push('Direct free-kick specialist — boosts shot/goal probability on fouls drawn.');
+  }
+  if (features.takes_corners && statType === 'assists') {
+    lines.push('Designated corner taker — meaningfully lifts assist probability.');
+  }
+
+  if (features.altitude_impact === 'high') {
+    lines.push(`Match at ${features.venue_altitude_ft || 'high'}ft altitude. ${features.home_continent ? 'Acclimated host team.' : 'Non-acclimatized side — historical goal reduction.'}`);
+  } else if (features.altitude_impact === 'moderate' && !features.home_continent) {
+    lines.push(`Moderate altitude at ${features.venue_altitude_ft || 'venue'}ft — minor stamina impact.`);
+  }
+
+  if (Number.isFinite(features.referee_cards_per_game)) {
+    const refName = features.referee_name || 'Referee';
+    lines.push(`${refName} averages ${features.referee_cards_per_game.toFixed(1)} cards per match.`);
+  }
+
+  if (Number.isFinite(features.minutes_per_game) && features.minutes_per_game < 75) {
+    lines.push(`Averaging only ${features.minutes_per_game.toFixed(0)} minutes per match — line may assume full 90.`);
+  }
+
+  if (Number.isFinite(features.opp_goals_conceded_per_game)) {
+    lines.push(`${meta.opponentAbbr || 'Opponent'} concedes ${features.opp_goals_conceded_per_game.toFixed(2)} goals per game.`);
+  }
+
+  if (features.tournament_player && Number.isFinite(features.wc_goals_career)) {
+    lines.push(`Tournament pedigree: ${features.wc_goals_career} career World Cup goals.`);
+  }
+
+  if (features.home_away === 1.0) lines.push('Playing at home.');
+  else if (features.home_away === 0.0) lines.push('Playing on the road.');
+
+  return lines;
+}
+
 // Build a human-readable reasoning summary + steps from the actual
 // features (which carry real numbers) and engine1's grade.
 function buildConcreteReasoning(features = {}, engine1Result = {}, meta = {}, prop = {}) {
-  const lines = [];
+  // Soccer (Session 7j) routes to a sport-specific line builder and
+  // returns before the NBA-flavored sentences would fire. The closer
+  // logic (trap, engine1 verdict, error gaps, steps shape) is shared
+  // between sports and lives below this branch.
+  const sportLc = String(meta.sport || '').toLowerCase();
+  const isSoccer = sportLc === 'soccer' || sportLc === 'football';

-  // Recent form vs the line — L5 and L20 are the orchestrator's
-  // canonical season-trend signals.
-  if (Number.isFinite(features.l5_avg)) {
-    lines.push(`${prop.player || 'Player'} is averaging ${features.l5_avg.toFixed(1)} ${prop.stat_type || ''} over his last 5 games.`);
-  }
-  if (Number.isFinite(features.l20_avg)) {
-    lines.push(`Last 20 games average: ${features.l20_avg.toFixed(1)}.`);
-  }
+  const lines = isSoccer
+    ? buildSoccerReasoningLines(features, meta, prop)
+    : [];

-  // Trend direction relative to the line.
-  if (Number.isFinite(features.l5_avg) && Number.isFinite(prop.line)) {
-    const diff = features.l5_avg - prop.line;
-    if (Math.abs(diff) >= 0.5) {
-      const dir = diff > 0 ? 'above' : 'below';
-      lines.push(`That's ${Math.abs(diff).toFixed(1)} ${dir} the line of ${prop.line}.`);
+  if (!isSoccer) {
+    // Recent form vs the line — L5 and L20 are the orchestrator's
+    // canonical season-trend signals.
+    if (Number.isFinite(features.l5_avg)) {
+      lines.push(`${prop.player || 'Player'} is averaging ${features.l5_avg.toFixed(1)} ${prop.stat_type || ''} over his last 5 games.`);
    }
-  }
-
-  // Home / away.
-  if (features.home_away === 1.0) lines.push('Playing at home tonight.');
-  else if (features.home_away === 0.0) lines.push('Playing on the road tonight.');
-
-  // Opponent matchup. opp_rank_stat is 0..1 normalized
-  // (0 = best D, 1 = worst D) — translate to friendlier language.
-  if (Number.isFinite(features.opp_rank_stat) && meta.opponentAbbr) {
-    if (features.opp_rank_stat >= 0.7) {
-      lines.push(`${meta.opponentAbbr} is a bottom-tier defense vs this stat.`);
-    } else if (features.opp_rank_stat <= 0.3) {
-      lines.push(`${meta.opponentAbbr} is a top-tier defense vs this stat.`);
-    } else {
-      lines.push(`${meta.opponentAbbr} is a middling defense vs this stat.`);
+    if (Number.isFinite(features.l20_avg)) {
+      lines.push(`Last 20 games average: ${features.l20_avg.toFixed(1)}.`);
    }
+
+    // Trend direction relative to the line.
+    if (Number.isFinite(features.l5_avg) && Number.isFinite(prop.line)) {
+      const diff = features.l5_avg - prop.line;
+      if (Math.abs(diff) >= 0.5) {
+        const dir = diff > 0 ? 'above' : 'below';
+        lines.push(`That's ${Math.abs(diff).toFixed(1)} ${dir} the line of ${prop.line}.`);
+      }
+    }
+
+    // Home / away.
+    if (features.home_away === 1.0) lines.push('Playing at home tonight.');
+    else if (features.home_away === 0.0) lines.push('Playing on the road tonight.');
  }

-  // Rest / fatigue context.
-  if (features.rest_days === 0) lines.push('Back-to-back — fatigue concern.');
-  else if (Number.isFinite(features.rest_days) && features.rest_days >= 2) {
-    lines.push(`${features.rest_days} days of rest.`);
-  }
-  if (Number.isFinite(features.game_count_in_7d) && features.game_count_in_7d >= 4) {
-    lines.push(`Heavy workload — ${features.game_count_in_7d} games in the last week.`);
-  }
+  if (!isSoccer) {
+    // Opponent matchup. opp_rank_stat is 0..1 normalized
+    // (0 = best D, 1 = worst D) — translate to friendlier language.
+    if (Number.isFinite(features.opp_rank_stat) && meta.opponentAbbr) {
+      if (features.opp_rank_stat >= 0.7) {
+        lines.push(`${meta.opponentAbbr} is a bottom-tier defense vs this stat.`);
+      } else if (features.opp_rank_stat <= 0.3) {
+        lines.push(`${meta.opponentAbbr} is a top-tier defense vs this stat.`);
+      } else {
+        lines.push(`${meta.opponentAbbr} is a middling defense vs this stat.`);
+      }
+    }

-  // Injury context.
-  if (Number.isFinite(features.injury_severity_score) && features.injury_severity_score > 0) {
-    lines.push(`${features.injury_severity_score} opponent starter(s) on the injury report.`);
+    // Rest / fatigue context.
+    if (features.rest_days === 0) lines.push('Back-to-back — fatigue concern.');
+    else if (Number.isFinite(features.rest_days) && features.rest_days >= 2) {
+      lines.push(`${features.rest_days} days of rest.`);
+    }
+    if (Number.isFinite(features.game_count_in_7d) && features.game_count_in_7d >= 4) {
+      lines.push(`Heavy workload — ${features.game_count_in_7d} games in the last week.`);
+    }
+
+    // Injury context.
+    if (Number.isFinite(features.injury_severity_score) && features.injury_severity_score > 0) {
+      lines.push(`${features.injury_severity_score} opponent starter(s) on the injury report.`);
+    }
  }

  // Trap composite — surfaced when meaningful.