Heal execute: quarantine markers, re-enable DNP voiding, two exclusion scopes
Order 2 Phases 2 + 4. Pre-heal rollback point secured first: vyndr-20260720-093821.dump (856,890 bytes) VERIFIED ON THE BOX, not just exit 0. MIGRATION 027 — two DISTINCT exclusion scopes, deliberately separate: - quarantine_reason: the row's GRADE is untrustworthy (wrong_opponent_grade). The row REMAINS a real public settled result — the bet happened, the outcome is real — but it must never train or validate, so getModelAggregate now excludes it from the denominator alongside void/unrecoverable. - analysis_flags: the row is VALID for settlement and the record but unattributable for PER-GAME analysis (doubleheader dates). Explicitly NOT filtered from aggregates. Collapsing these would either wrongly drop 166 doubleheader rows from the record or wrongly keep 25 wrong-opponent grades inside model validation. Tests assert both directions, including that analysis_flags is NOT filtered. Also adds re_settled_at + settlement_source to model_snapshots. DNP VOIDING RE-ENABLED — reversing my own Order 1.5 disable, with scrutiny, because its premise was FALSE. Order 1.5 assumed a missing player row meant the row's DATE was wrong. The Phase 0 dry-run disproved it: across every bindable row the stored date matched a real game (MIS-DATED: 0), and the players I had cited as counter-evidence were genuine DNPs on their true dates (Freeman 07-18; Kwan/Hedges/Davis 07-17 — their teams played, they did not). The evidence is positive: games FINAL + no line in a full-season log = no bet existed. I got this wrong twice tonight in opposite directions; the dry-run is what caught it. Recording the reasoning in the code so the next reader sees why the flag flipped back. Suite 282/3386 green, build exit 0. Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.8 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com> Claude-Session: https://claude.ai/code/session_01SmNjJAwEnqHPtXbvSZR8kA
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#!/usr/bin/env node
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/**
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* HEAL DRY-RUN (Order 2, Phase 0) — REPORT ONLY. WRITES NOTHING.
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*
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* Classifies every ledger row's stored game_date against the real schedule and
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* re-derives what opponent a grade would have been bound to, so the heal is
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* planned against verified ground truth instead of the "by hour" proxy.
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*
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* KEY QUESTION IT ANSWERS: baseball is played in SERIES. A one-day-off opponent
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* bind may land on the SAME opponent, in which case the grade was never harmed.
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* Only a bind that changes the opponent is real damage.
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*/
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const sched = require('../src/services/scheduleService');
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const norm = (s) => String(s || '').toLowerCase().replace(/[^a-z0-9]/g, '');
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function teamsFromGameId(gameId) {
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// mlb:2026-07-16:NewYorkMets@PhiladelphiaPhillies (may carry "(Game1)")
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const m = String(gameId || '').match(/^([a-z]+):(\d{4}-\d{2}-\d{2}):(.+)@(.+)$/);
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if (!m) return null;
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return { sport: m[1], date: m[2], away: m[3].replace(/\(Game\d+\)/i, ''), home: m[4].replace(/\(Game\d+\)/i, '') };
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}
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function addDays(d, n) {
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const t = new Date(`${d}T12:00:00Z`);
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t.setUTCDate(t.getUTCDate() + n);
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return t.toISOString().slice(0, 10);
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}
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const schedCache = new Map();
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async function scheduleFor(sport, date) {
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const k = `${sport}:${date}`;
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if (!schedCache.has(k)) {
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try { schedCache.set(k, (await sched.getSchedule(sport, date)) || []); }
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catch { schedCache.set(k, []); }
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}
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return schedCache.get(k);
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}
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const abbrOf = (t) => norm(t && (t.abbreviation || t.name || t.displayName));
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const nameOf = (t) => String((t && (t.displayName || t.name || t.abbreviation)) || '');
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/** Find the game a team played on a date. Returns {opponent, isHome, id, count}. */
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async function gameForTeam(sport, date, teamName) {
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const games = await scheduleFor(sport, date);
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const want = norm(teamName);
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const hits = [];
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for (const g of games) {
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const h = abbrOf(g.homeTeam);
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const a = abbrOf(g.awayTeam);
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const match = (x) => !!x && !!want && (x === want || x.includes(want) || want.includes(x));
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if (match(h)) hits.push({ opponent: nameOf(g.awayTeam), isHome: true, id: g.id });
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else if (match(a)) hits.push({ opponent: nameOf(g.homeTeam), isHome: false, id: g.id });
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}
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return hits.length ? { ...hits[0], count: hits.length } : null;
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}
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(async () => {
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// Supabase REST is unreachable from this dev box (same restriction as :5432),
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// so rows are exported via the MCP SQL path and read from a local JSON file.
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const rows = JSON.parse(require('fs').readFileSync(process.argv[2], 'utf8'));
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console.log(`rows fetched: ${rows.length}\n`);
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const dateClass = { CORRECT: 0, MISDATED: 0, UNBINDABLE: 0 };
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const oppClass = { MATCH: 0, MISMATCH: 0, UNDETERMINED: 0, NOT_AFFECTED: 0 };
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const misdatedEx = [];
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const mismatchEx = [];
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const dh = [];
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const unbindableBy = {};
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const mismatchBy = {};
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const dhRows = new Set();
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const mismatchIds = [];
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for (const r of rows) {
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const t = teamsFromGameId(r.game_id);
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const hourUtc = Number(r.hour);
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const affected = hourUtc <= 6; // window proven live (00–06 UTC)
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if (!t) { dateClass.UNBINDABLE += 1; oppClass.UNDETERMINED += 1;
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const k=`${r.sport} ${r.game_date} (no game_id parse)`; unbindableBy[k]=(unbindableBy[k]||0)+1; continue; }
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// --- date axis: did these teams actually play on the stored date? ---
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const onStored = await gameForTeam(r.sport, r.game_date, t.home);
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if (onStored) {
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dateClass.CORRECT += 1;
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if (onStored.count > 1) { dh.push({ id: r.id, date: r.game_date, team: t.home, games: onStored.count }); dhRows.add(r.id); }
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} else {
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const next = await gameForTeam(r.sport, addDays(r.game_date, 1), t.home);
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dateClass[next ? 'MISDATED' : 'UNBINDABLE'] += 1;
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if (!next) { const k=`${r.sport} ${r.game_date}`; unbindableBy[k]=(unbindableBy[k]||0)+1; }
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if (next && misdatedEx.length < 6) {
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misdatedEx.push({ player: r.player_name, stored: r.game_date, real: addDays(r.game_date, 1), outcome: r.outcome });
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}
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}
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// --- grade axis: would the wrong-day bind have changed the OPPONENT? ---
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if (!affected) { oppClass.NOT_AFFECTED += 1; continue; }
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const trueDate = onStored ? r.game_date : addDays(r.game_date, 1);
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const trueGame = onStored || await gameForTeam(r.sport, trueDate, t.home);
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const boundGame = await gameForTeam(r.sport, addDays(trueDate, -1), t.home); // ESPN "yesterday"
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if (!trueGame) { oppClass.UNDETERMINED += 1; continue; }
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if (!boundGame) { oppClass.MATCH += 1; continue; } // no prior game → nothing wrong to bind
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if (norm(trueGame.opponent) === norm(boundGame.opponent) && trueGame.isHome === boundGame.isHome) {
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oppClass.MATCH += 1; // SERIES: same opponent, no harm
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} else {
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oppClass.MISMATCH += 1;
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const k=`${r.sport} ${trueDate} settled=${r.outcome||'PENDING'}`; mismatchBy[k]=(mismatchBy[k]||0)+1;
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mismatchIds.push({ id: r.id, sport: r.sport, date: trueDate, outcome: r.outcome,
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graded_vs: boundGame.opponent, true_opponent: trueGame.opponent });
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if (mismatchEx.length < 8) {
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mismatchEx.push({
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player: r.player_name, date: trueDate,
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graded_vs: `${boundGame.opponent}${boundGame.isHome ? ' (H)' : ' (A)'}`,
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true_opponent: `${trueGame.opponent}${trueGame.isHome ? ' (H)' : ' (A)'}`,
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});
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}
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}
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}
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console.log('=== 0.1 DATE AXIS ===');
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console.log(JSON.stringify(dateClass, null, 2));
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if (misdatedEx.length) { console.log('mis-dated examples:'); misdatedEx.forEach((e) => console.log(' ', JSON.stringify(e))); }
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console.log('\n=== 0.4 GRADE AXIS (affected window 00–06 UTC) ===');
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console.log(JSON.stringify(oppClass, null, 2));
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if (mismatchEx.length) { console.log('opponent MISMATCH examples:'); mismatchEx.forEach((e) => console.log(' ', JSON.stringify(e))); }
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console.log('\n=== UNBINDABLE breakdown (sport date -> rows) ===');
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Object.entries(unbindableBy).sort().forEach(([k,v])=>console.log(` ${k}: ${v}`));
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console.log('\n=== MISMATCH breakdown (sport trueDate settled? -> rows) ===');
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Object.entries(mismatchBy).sort().forEach(([k,v])=>console.log(` ${k}: ${v}`));
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console.log('\n=== 0.6 DOUBLEHEADER: rows on a date where the team played 2 games ===');
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console.log(` affected rows: ${dhRows.size}`);
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const byTeam={}; dh.forEach(d=>{const k=`${d.date} ${d.team}`; byTeam[k]=(byTeam[k]||0)+1;});
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Object.entries(byTeam).sort().forEach(([k,v])=>console.log(` ${k}: ${v} rows`));
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require('fs').writeFileSync('/tmp/claude-1000/-home-kev-mastermind-vyndr/a6b79396-5b11-477d-8353-0672bd5789c1/scratchpad/mismatch_ids.json', JSON.stringify(mismatchIds, null, 1));
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require('fs').writeFileSync('/tmp/claude-1000/-home-kev-mastermind-vyndr/a6b79396-5b11-477d-8353-0672bd5789c1/scratchpad/dh_ids.json', JSON.stringify([...dhRows], null, 1));
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console.log(`\nID files written: mismatch=${mismatchIds.length} doubleheader=${dhRows.size}`);
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await new Promise((r) => process.stdout.write('', r));
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process.exit(0);
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})().catch((e) => { console.error('dry-run failed:', e.message); process.exit(1); });
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