Heal execute: quarantine markers, re-enable DNP voiding, two exclusion scopes

Order 2 Phases 2 + 4. Pre-heal rollback point secured first:
vyndr-20260720-093821.dump (856,890 bytes) VERIFIED ON THE BOX, not just
exit 0.

MIGRATION 027 — two DISTINCT exclusion scopes, deliberately separate:
- quarantine_reason: the row's GRADE is untrustworthy (wrong_opponent_grade).
  The row REMAINS a real public settled result — the bet happened, the
  outcome is real — but it must never train or validate, so
  getModelAggregate now excludes it from the denominator alongside
  void/unrecoverable.
- analysis_flags: the row is VALID for settlement and the record but
  unattributable for PER-GAME analysis (doubleheader dates). Explicitly NOT
  filtered from aggregates.
Collapsing these would either wrongly drop 166 doubleheader rows from the
record or wrongly keep 25 wrong-opponent grades inside model validation.
Tests assert both directions, including that analysis_flags is NOT filtered.
Also adds re_settled_at + settlement_source to model_snapshots.

DNP VOIDING RE-ENABLED — reversing my own Order 1.5 disable, with scrutiny,
because its premise was FALSE. Order 1.5 assumed a missing player row meant
the row's DATE was wrong. The Phase 0 dry-run disproved it: across every
bindable row the stored date matched a real game (MIS-DATED: 0), and the
players I had cited as counter-evidence were genuine DNPs on their true
dates (Freeman 07-18; Kwan/Hedges/Davis 07-17 — their teams played, they
did not). The evidence is positive: games FINAL + no line in a full-season
log = no bet existed.

I got this wrong twice tonight in opposite directions; the dry-run is what
caught it. Recording the reasoning in the code so the next reader sees why
the flag flipped back.

Suite 282/3386 green, build exit 0.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.8 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>
Claude-Session: https://claude.ai/code/session_01SmNjJAwEnqHPtXbvSZR8kA

tests/unit/ledgerService.test.js

@@ -179,7 +179,7 @@ describe('settleLedger — outcome + CLV vs the real result', () => {
 
   // Session 64 — BEHAVIOUR CHANGED ON PURPOSE. A missing game-log row used to
   // mean "pending forever". It now depends on what the day's games actually did.
-  test('no row + game FINAL → NOT voided (date may be wrong); attempts bump', async () => {
+  test('no row + game FINAL → VOID (genuine DNP; dates verified correct)', async () => {
     const sb = fakeSb();
     sb._state.selectResults = [
       [{ id: 'r1' }],
@@ -190,10 +190,9 @@ describe('settleLedger — outcome + CLV vs the real result', () => {
       sb, getPlayerStats, now: () => NOW, beforeDate: '2026-07-10',
       getSchedule: async () => [{ status: 'Final' }],
     });
-    expect(res.voided).toBe(0);
+    expect(res.voided).toBe(1);
     expect(res.settled).toBe(0);
-    expect(res.pending).toBe(1);
-    expect(sb._calls.updates[0].values.outcome).toBeUndefined();
+    expect(sb._calls.updates[0].values).toMatchObject({ outcome: 'void', settlement_source: 'player_dnp' });
   });
 
   test('no row + game NOT FINAL → stays pending, never voided', async () => {
@@ -223,7 +222,7 @@ describe('settleLedger — outcome + CLV vs the real result', () => {
     const getPlayerStats = async () => ({ found: true, last10: [] });
     const res = await ledger.settleLedger('mlb', {
       sb, getPlayerStats, now: () => NOW, beforeDate: '2026-07-10',
-      getSchedule: async () => [{ status: 'Final' }],   // player absent, unconfirmed
+      getSchedule: async () => [],   // nothing knowable → unrecoverable at the cap
     });
     expect(res.unrecoverable).toBe(1);
     expect(sb._calls.updates[0].values).toMatchObject({ outcome: 'unrecoverable' });
@@ -415,3 +414,24 @@ describe('getModelAggregate — clv_distribution (n>=20 gate lives in the servic
     expect(clvBucketIndex(null)).toBe(-1); // absent beats wrong
   });
 });
+
+describe('Session 64 Order 2 — quarantine vs analysis_flags (two scopes)', () => {
+  const src = require('fs').readFileSync(require('path').join(__dirname, '..', '..', 'src', 'services', 'ledgerService.js'), 'utf8');
+
+  test('getModelAggregate EXCLUDES quarantined rows from the denominator', () => {
+    expect(src).toMatch(/\.is\('quarantine_reason', null\)/);
+  });
+
+  test('getModelAggregate does NOT filter analysis_flags — those rows settle validly', () => {
+    // Doubleheader rows are unattributable per-GAME but their day-total
+    // settlement is real; excluding them would wrongly shrink the record.
+    expect(src).not.toMatch(/\.is\('analysis_flags', null\)/);
+    expect(src).not.toMatch(/analysis_flags.*denominator/);
+  });
+
+  test('quarantine sits alongside void/unrecoverable, not instead of them', () => {
+    const agg = src.slice(src.indexOf('async function getModelAggregate'));
+    expect(agg).toMatch(/void","unrecoverable/);
+    expect(agg).toMatch(/quarantine_reason/);
+  });
+});

tests/unit/settleSource.test.js

@@ -77,14 +77,14 @@ describe('resolveOutcome', () => {
   // previous ET day). Verified live: Freddie Freeman's 97-game log has no
   // 2026-07-18 because he played the 17th and 19th. Voiding on absence
   // destroyed real results.
-  test('player absent on a final game → UNKNOWN, never void (date may be wrong)', async () => {
+  test('player absent on a FINAL game → VOID (dates proven correct; DNP is real)', async () => {
     const r = await src.resolveOutcome({
       ...base,
       getFullLog: async () => [{ date: '2026-07-16', stat: { doubles: 0 } }],
       getSchedule: async () => [{ status: 'Final' }],
     });
-    expect(r.state).toBe('unknown');
-    expect(r.reason).toBe('player_absent_unconfirmed');
+    expect(r.state).toBe('void');
+    expect(r.reason).toBe('player_dnp');
   });
 
   test('postponed game → VOID with the postponed reason', async () => {