Heal execute: quarantine markers, re-enable DNP voiding, two exclusion scopes

Order 2 Phases 2 + 4. Pre-heal rollback point secured first:
vyndr-20260720-093821.dump (856,890 bytes) VERIFIED ON THE BOX, not just
exit 0.

MIGRATION 027 — two DISTINCT exclusion scopes, deliberately separate:
- quarantine_reason: the row's GRADE is untrustworthy (wrong_opponent_grade).
  The row REMAINS a real public settled result — the bet happened, the
  outcome is real — but it must never train or validate, so
  getModelAggregate now excludes it from the denominator alongside
  void/unrecoverable.
- analysis_flags: the row is VALID for settlement and the record but
  unattributable for PER-GAME analysis (doubleheader dates). Explicitly NOT
  filtered from aggregates.
Collapsing these would either wrongly drop 166 doubleheader rows from the
record or wrongly keep 25 wrong-opponent grades inside model validation.
Tests assert both directions, including that analysis_flags is NOT filtered.
Also adds re_settled_at + settlement_source to model_snapshots.

DNP VOIDING RE-ENABLED — reversing my own Order 1.5 disable, with scrutiny,
because its premise was FALSE. Order 1.5 assumed a missing player row meant
the row's DATE was wrong. The Phase 0 dry-run disproved it: across every
bindable row the stored date matched a real game (MIS-DATED: 0), and the
players I had cited as counter-evidence were genuine DNPs on their true
dates (Freeman 07-18; Kwan/Hedges/Davis 07-17 — their teams played, they
did not). The evidence is positive: games FINAL + no line in a full-season
log = no bet existed.

I got this wrong twice tonight in opposite directions; the dry-run is what
caught it. Recording the reasoning in the code so the next reader sees why
the flag flipped back.

Suite 282/3386 green, build exit 0.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.8 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>
Claude-Session: https://claude.ai/code/session_01SmNjJAwEnqHPtXbvSZR8kA
This commit is contained in:
Kev
2026-07-20 05:41:41 -04:00
parent b76e35f575
commit b33612675d
5 changed files with 191 additions and 19 deletions
+3 -3
View File
@@ -77,14 +77,14 @@ describe('resolveOutcome', () => {
// previous ET day). Verified live: Freddie Freeman's 97-game log has no
// 2026-07-18 because he played the 17th and 19th. Voiding on absence
// destroyed real results.
test('player absent on a final game → UNKNOWN, never void (date may be wrong)', async () => {
test('player absent on a FINAL game → VOID (dates proven correct; DNP is real)', async () => {
const r = await src.resolveOutcome({
...base,
getFullLog: async () => [{ date: '2026-07-16', stat: { doubles: 0 } }],
getSchedule: async () => [{ status: 'Final' }],
});
expect(r.state).toBe('unknown');
expect(r.reason).toBe('player_absent_unconfirmed');
expect(r.state).toBe('void');
expect(r.reason).toBe('player_dnp');
});
test('postponed game → VOID with the postponed reason', async () => {