BUILD-STATE: under-querying vs out-of-data session

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>
Claude-Session: https://claude.ai/code/session_01W1sivYNqY2TS5ftykmHBU9

BUILD-STATE.md

@@ -5133,3 +5133,40 @@ Complete frontend overhaul. 18 pages, 22 API routes. `npm run build` passes with
   - Timestamped records in evolution_detections table, Evolution Watch content formatter
 - **Migration 008:** coaching_tendencies, player_out_history, evolution_detections, unconventional_validations (all with indexes + RLS)
 - **Integration:** 3 new blueprints registered in app.py (coaching_bp, redistribution_bp, unconventional_bp), evolution + odds_scanner extended with new endpoints
+
+
+---
+
+## Session — Under-querying vs out of data (2026-08-05)
+
+**Shipped**
+- `scripts/backfill-context.js` — platoon splits backfilled to all 380 settled
+  hitters (was 298; ingest had only ever seen tonight's lineups).
+- `scripts/reconstruct-game-environment.js` — joins the ledger's game slug to
+  statsapi, writes `game_context` on the LEDGER's key, pulls actual archived
+  Open-Meteo weather. 96/101 settled games now carry real weather; park
+  dimensions 15 -> 30 venues.
+- `src/services/model/parkWeather.js` (+ tests) — park geometry + air read onto
+  HIT TYPE, not P(hit). Wind refused (no park orientation).
+- `factorGate` — cluster-aware bootstrap + `effective_n`. Unclustered rows keep
+  the original path byte-for-byte.
+- `specs/under-querying-vs-out-of-data.md` — the full record.
+
+**Decided**
+- `pitcher_contact_profile` DEMOTED: point estimate halved on 2x sample, interval
+  now spans zero.
+- `platoon` / `platoon_severity` clear the bar but are NOT promoted — 4.5% median
+  contamination (season-to-date splits contain the games they predict) on a
+  -0.0001 bound.
+- Park+weather on total_bases: 47 clusters < 500, point estimate WORSE (+0.0011).
+
+**Next**
+- Weather is reachable: ~57 days at 7 games/settled-day.
+- Park geometry is NOT — 30 ballparks exist, so a venue-constant factor can never
+  reach 500 independent units. Needs a hierarchical fixed-effect treatment or it
+  stays unvalidatable.
+- Point-in-time platoon splits would settle the two held passes.
+- Park orientation is the one column that would unlock wind.
+
+**Blocker**
+- `git push` has no credentials in this environment; commit `7b85934` is local.