Wave 4A: Outlook Mode (never-empty grid) + Market-Breadth consensus strip

Step 3 — OUTLOOK MODE. The game grid no longer dead-ends in a "NO SLATE" CTA.
When there are no live games (and it's not a network failure) it shows REAL,
always-available data: yesterday's PROVEN A-tier receipts (/api/ledger/model)
+ tomorrow's date-pinned ESPN schedule preview (free/cached). A network
fetchError stays a distinct ERROR state — never a fabricated outlook.
- lib/outlook.js (new, CommonJS, unit-tested): buildOutlook selection +
  mapTomorrowPreview (upcoming-only, drops incomplete matchups, never invents).
- Slate.tsx: OutlookSurface replaces the empty-grid CTA (dateOffset 0 only).
- dashboard/page.tsx: DashboardOutlook replaces the "Today's games" NO-SLATE CTA.

Step 4 — MARKET-BREADTH / CONSENSUS vs MODEL. Makes the DeskShowcase
"consensus vs model" claim REAL. Consensus = median book line across a prop's
per-book rows; the model's position is model_value vs consensus, signed by the
graded side. <2 distinct books → null (never fabricate a consensus); a
non-numeric line is ignored, never coerced to 0.
- lib/marketBreadth.js (new, CommonJS, unit-tested): median/computeBreadth/
  collectBreadth (strict null guards).
- components/vyndr/MarketBreadth.tsx (new): mono/tabular strip, colored by sign
  via colorContract.edgeColor, self-hides when nothing has >=2 books.
- Slate.tsx renders it above the grid (joins books + snapshot model_value).
- slateAdapter.js exports gradeKey for the join.
- DeskShowcase.tsx: the consensus claim is now backed by the shipped feature.

Tests: tests/unit/outlook.test.js + tests/unit/marketBreadth.test.js (23 cases).
Full suite 2984 passing (245 suites); next build exit 0.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.8 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>

web/src/app/dashboard/page.tsx

@@ -19,6 +19,9 @@ import { nextRunLabelET } from '@/lib/pipelineSchedule';
 // varying signal, and fall back to yesterday's PROVEN A-tier receipts so first
 // paint ALWAYS proves the model (#1, #13, Part 6).
 import { selectTopGrades, buildHeroReceipts } from '@/lib/slateAdapter';
+// Wave 4A (Step 3) — OUTLOOK MODE: the "Today's games" empty branch is never a
+// dead-end CTA; it shows yesterday's proven receipts + tomorrow's real schedule.
+import { buildOutlook } from '@/lib/outlook';
 import GradeBadge from '@/components/vyndr/GradeBadge';
 import { currentAccessToken } from '@/lib/authToken';
 
@@ -109,6 +112,98 @@ const SPORT_COLOR: Record<Sport, string> = {
   WNBA: '#FFB347',
 };
 
+/**
+ * Wave 4A (Step 3) — the dashboard OUTLOOK surface for an empty slate. Replaces
+ * the old "NO SLATE" dead-end CTA: the month-aware header + yesterday's PROVEN
+ * A-tier receipts + tomorrow's date-pinned schedule preview (all REAL,
+ * always-available data — never an invented line). Self-fetches both; the
+ * header always renders, so the grid is never blank.
+ */
+function DashboardOutlook({ sport }: { sport: Sport }) {
+  const [settled, setSettled] = useState<ModelEntry[] | null>(null);
+  const [tomorrow, setTomorrow] = useState<ScheduleApiGame[] | null>(null);
+
+  useEffect(() => {
+    let active = true;
+    fetch(`/api/ledger/model?sport=${sport.toLowerCase()}&limit=80`)
+      .then((r) => (r.ok ? r.json() : null))
+      .then((d) => { if (active) setSettled(Array.isArray(d?.entries) ? d.entries : []); })
+      .catch(() => { if (active) setSettled([]); });
+    return () => { active = false; };
+  }, [sport]);
+
+  useEffect(() => {
+    let active = true;
+    // Tomorrow, ET — the schedule route is date-pinned (free / cached).
+    const date = new Intl.DateTimeFormat('en-CA', { timeZone: 'America/New_York', year: 'numeric', month: '2-digit', day: '2-digit' }).format(new Date(Date.now() + 86_400_000));
+    fetch(`/api/schedule/${sport.toLowerCase()}?date=${date}`)
+      .then((r) => (r.ok ? r.json() : null))
+      .then((d) => { if (active) setTomorrow((Array.isArray(d?.games) ? d.games : []).map((g: ScheduleApiGame) => ({ ...g, sport: sport.toLowerCase() }))); })
+      .catch(() => { if (active) setTomorrow([]); });
+    return () => { active = false; };
+  }, [sport]);
+
+  const outlook = buildOutlook({ gamesCount: 0, settledRows: settled || [], tomorrow: tomorrow || [] }) as { mode: string; receipts?: OutlookReceiptView[]; tomorrow?: OutlookGameView[] };
+  const receipts: OutlookReceiptView[] = outlook.receipts ?? [];
+  const preview: OutlookGameView[] = outlook.tomorrow ?? [];
+  const { title, body } = emptyStateCopy(sport.toLowerCase());
+
+  return (
+    <div className="surface diagonal-cut tex-scan" style={{ padding: 24, display: 'grid', gap: 16 }}>
+      <div>
+        <p className="mono lbl" style={{ color: 'var(--amber)' }}>OUTLOOK</p>
+        <h3 style={{ fontSize: 18, fontWeight: 700, marginTop: 4 }}>{title}</h3>
+        <p style={{ color: 'var(--text-1)', fontSize: 14, maxWidth: 460 }}>{body}</p>
+      </div>
+
+      {receipts.length > 0 && (
+        <div>
+          <div className="mono lbl" style={{ color: 'var(--grade-a)', marginBottom: 10 }}>YESTERDAY · PROVEN</div>
+          <div style={{ display: 'flex', gap: 10, overflowX: 'auto', paddingBottom: 4 }}>
+            {receipts.map((r: OutlookReceiptView, i: number) => (
+              <div key={`${r.player}-${r.stat}-${i}`} className="surface" style={{ minWidth: 190, padding: 14, border: '1px solid var(--grade-a)', borderRadius: 12 }}>
+                <div style={{ display: 'flex', justifyContent: 'space-between', alignItems: 'center', marginBottom: 8 }}>
+                  <span className="mono" style={{ fontSize: 9, fontWeight: 800, letterSpacing: '0.1em', color: 'var(--grade-a)' }}>{String(r.sport).toUpperCase()}</span>
+                  <GradeBadge grade={r.grade} size={28} glow />
+                </div>
+                <div style={{ fontSize: 14, fontWeight: 700, marginBottom: 3 }}>{r.player}</div>
+                <p className="mono" style={{ fontSize: 12, color: 'var(--text-secondary)', textTransform: 'capitalize', fontVariantNumeric: 'tabular-nums' }}>
+                  {String(r.side).toUpperCase().startsWith('U') ? 'under' : 'over'} {r.line} {String(r.stat).replace(/_/g, ' ')}
+                </p>
+                <p className="mono" style={{ fontSize: 12, fontWeight: 800, color: 'var(--grade-a)', marginTop: 6, fontVariantNumeric: 'tabular-nums' }}>
+                  &#10003; HIT{r.actual != null ? ` (${r.actual})` : ''}
+                </p>
+              </div>
+            ))}
+          </div>
+        </div>
+      )}
+
+      {preview.length > 0 && (
+        <div>
+          <div className="mono lbl" style={{ color: 'var(--text-tertiary)', marginBottom: 10 }}>TOMORROW · SCHEDULE — lines post on the day</div>
+          <div style={{ display: 'grid', gap: 8 }}>
+            {preview.map((g: OutlookGameView) => (
+              <div key={g.id} className="mono" style={{ display: 'flex', gap: 10, alignItems: 'baseline', fontSize: 13, flexWrap: 'wrap' }}>
+                <span style={{ fontWeight: 700 }}>{g.away} @ {g.home}</span>
+                {g.time && <span style={{ color: 'var(--text-tertiary)', fontSize: 12 }}>{formatTime(g.time)}</span>}
+              </div>
+            ))}
+          </div>
+        </div>
+      )}
+
+      <div>
+        <a href="/ledger" className="btn-primary" style={{ padding: '10px 18px' }}>View the Ledger →</a>
+      </div>
+    </div>
+  );
+}
+
+// Render-only views of the buildOutlook output (the JS adapter has no TS types).
+interface OutlookReceiptView { player: string; stat: string; line: number; side: string; grade: string; sport: string; actual: number | null }
+interface OutlookGameView { id: string; away: string; home: string; time: string | null }
+
 export default function DashboardPage() {
   const router = useRouter();
   const { user, session, tier, scansRemaining, loading: authLoading } = useAuth();
@@ -431,21 +526,9 @@ export default function DashboardPage() {
         {games === null ? (
           <SkeletonRow stacked />
         ) : games.length === 0 ? (
-          // Session 57 (Phase 0) — honest per-sport empty state (spec §6):
-          // an off-season sport says when it returns; in-season = off-day.
-          <div
-            className="surface diagonal-cut tex-scan"
-            style={{ padding: 32, textAlign: 'center', display: 'grid', gap: 8, justifyItems: 'center' }}
-          >
-            <p className="lbl" style={{ color: 'var(--grade-c)' }}>NO SLATE</p>
-            <h3 style={{ fontSize: 18, fontWeight: 700 }}>{emptyStateCopy(sport.toLowerCase()).title}</h3>
-            <p style={{ color: 'var(--text-1)', fontSize: 14, maxWidth: 420 }}>
-              {emptyStateCopy(sport.toLowerCase()).body}
-            </p>
-            <div style={{ display: 'flex', gap: 12, marginTop: 8 }}>
-              <a href="/ledger" className="btn-primary" style={{ padding: '10px 18px' }}>View the Ledger →</a>
-            </div>
-          </div>
+          // Wave 4A (Step 3) — OUTLOOK MODE: never a dead-end "NO SLATE" CTA.
+          // Yesterday's proven receipts + tomorrow's real schedule fill the grid.
+          <DashboardOutlook sport={sport} />
         ) : (
           <div style={{ display: 'grid', gap: 12 }}>
             {games.map((g, idx) => (

web/src/app/pricing/DeskShowcase.tsx

@@ -83,6 +83,12 @@ export default function DeskShowcase() {
             </div>
           </div>
 
+          {/* Wave 4A (Step 4) — this claim is now BACKED by a real feature: the
+              CONSENSUS vs MODEL strip (components/vyndr/MarketBreadth, fed by
+              lib/marketBreadth.collectBreadth) ships on the live slate/dashboard,
+              computing the median book line vs the model's projection. "live
+              line moves" is the existing snapshot line-deltas / LineSparkline.
+              No longer an empty promise — do not remove without removing those. */}
           <div style={{ background: 'var(--bg-1)', border: '1px solid var(--border)', borderRadius: 12, padding: '14px 16px', display: 'flex', alignItems: 'center', gap: 12 }}>
             <span className="live-dot" style={{ background: 'var(--g-a)' }} aria-hidden />
             <span className="mono" style={{ fontSize: 11.5, color: 'var(--text-1)', letterSpacing: '0.04em' }}>