Fix: the incumbent ruler respects the allow-list (correcting my own model)

My first delta run modelled the incumbent as first-row-wins over the RAW
feed and reported that an EXCLUDED book was "the market" on 69% of MLB
prop-lines, with prizepicks alone at 47%. That is WRONG and I caught it
before it went anywhere.

normalizeProps applies ALLOWED_BOOKS BEFORE gradeSlateService.dedupeProps
runs, so DFS books never reach the incumbent. The allow-list, for all the
coverage it costs, does keep DFS out of the ruler.

incumbentFairProb now takes the allow-list (defaulting to the live
ALLOWED_BOOKS) and reproduces the real chain. Two tests lock it, including
that a prop with no admitted book has NO incumbent -- it is never graded
at all, which is the real loss and is already measured as invisible_props.

Overstating the incumbent's badness would have been as dishonest as
understating it, and more persuasive.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>
Claude-Session: https://claude.ai/code/session_01QJs13VsyiSKYQP6rj3NNmc

src/services/proplineVerify.js

@@ -260,7 +260,7 @@ const REFERENCE_POLICIES = Object.freeze({
  * incumbent is first-row-wins, so it reports WHICH KIND of book has been acting
  * as "the market" — and DFS pick'em has the highest coverage in the feed.
  */
-function rulerDelta(raw) {
+function rulerDelta(raw, allowed) {
   const { compareRulers } = require('./consensusRuler');
   const { roleOf } = require('../config/bookRoles');
 
@@ -289,6 +289,7 @@ function rulerDelta(raw) {
 
   const deltas = [];
   const roleCounts = {};
+  let gradeable = 0;
   let consensusAvailable = 0;
   let bothAvailable = 0;
   let disagree2pts = 0;
@@ -296,9 +297,10 @@ function rulerDelta(raw) {
 
   for (const [key, quotes] of byPropLine.entries()) {
     const line = quotes[0].line;
-    const c = compareRulers(quotes, line, 'over');
+    const c = compareRulers(quotes, line, 'over', { allowedBooks: allowed });
     if (c.consensus.source === 'consensus') consensusAvailable += 1;
     if (c.incumbent.book) {
+      gradeable += 1;
       const r = roleOf(c.incumbent.book);
       roleCounts[r] = (roleCounts[r] || 0) + 1;
       roleCounts[`book:${c.incumbent.book}`] = (roleCounts[`book:${c.incumbent.book}`] || 0) + 1;
@@ -317,6 +319,8 @@ function rulerDelta(raw) {
 
   return {
     prop_line_groups: byPropLine.size,
+    gradeable_groups: gradeable,
+    gradeable_pct: byPropLine.size ? round2((100 * gradeable) / byPropLine.size) : null,
     consensus_available: consensusAvailable,
     consensus_available_pct: byPropLine.size ? round2((100 * consensusAvailable) / byPropLine.size) : null,
     comparable: bothAvailable,
@@ -435,7 +439,7 @@ async function verify(opts = {}) {
         continue;
       }
       out.per_sport[sport] = analyseBreadth(raw, allowed);
-      out.per_sport[sport].ruler_delta = rulerDelta(raw);
+      out.per_sport[sport].ruler_delta = rulerDelta(raw, allowed);
       const ev = raw.find((e) => e && e.id && Array.isArray(e.bookmakers) && e.bookmakers.length);
       if (ev) firstEvent[sport] = { id: ev.id, key: PA.SPORT_KEYS[sport] };
     } catch (err) {