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Order Zero: tier-reality report + widening fingerprint

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PHASE 1 resolved on our real keys, and a bad source was discarded on the
way: a fetched rendering of PropLine's docs "tier matrix" claimed
/odds/closing is 403 on free and that /odds returns prices nulled on free.
Both are contradicted by direct observation (200-redacted, and 6,196
two-sided PRICED groups on MLB). Not cited. The report uses only the
machine-readable OpenAPI contract and the verbatim detail bodies our keys
received.

Verdict: every one of the six endpoints behaves exactly as the Free tier's
published contract says. error:"upgrade_required" with an explicit
required_tier is unambiguous -- NOT a key-permission problem, NOT a plan
problem. $9/mo Hobby buys /results + /odds/closing (the CLV instrument) +
/movement (steam across 18 books); $19/mo Pro adds the 90-day settlement
export. Priced and evidenced; not recommended here -- it is a decision.

PHASE 2 fingerprint on the SERVED feed: 5 books -> 13, props rendered
546 -> 2,780 (5.1x), mean 4.22 books/prop.

The unflattering half, stated up front: of 2,234 newly-visible props only
698 (31.2%) carry a real non-DFS market price; 1,536 (68.8%) are DFS-only
pick'em rows. The honest headline is not "80% of the slate unlocked" --
the board is 5x fuller, about a third of the new depth is real market
data, and the rest is pick'em inventory now shown but tagged.

PHASE 3 verified: 546 gradeable props, unchanged. CURRENT_RULER_VERSION
still v1_first_book.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>
Claude-Session: https://claude.ai/code/session_01QJs13VsyiSKYQP6rj3NNmc
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Kev
2026-08-01 00:57:12 -04:00
parent 68c5b65427
commit c79528abae
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@@ -54,7 +54,9 @@ model-shaped is downstream of it:
| **MLB isotonic `p_win`** | **PROVISIONAL** | calibrated on the bent ruler; does not promote until re-run |
| **WNBA** | **still abstains** | a MODEL problem, not a coverage problem — coverage was never its constraint |
| **soccer** | **settles** — ~15 competitions, 30d | "grades into a void" is a **$19/mo Pro-tier** problem, not a data problem |
| **CLV + results feeds** | `/odds/closing` + `/movement` **redacted**; `/results` + `/exports/resolved-props` **403** | free tier behaving exactly as its contract says |
| **CLV + results feeds** | `/odds/closing` + `/movement` **redacted**; `/results` **403 `required_tier: hobby`**; `/exports/resolved-props` **403 `required_tier: pro`** | **verified on our keys** — plain tier exclusion, not a key or plan fault. **$9/mo** buys CLV + steam + results; **$19/mo** adds the 90-day settlement export |
| **books SERVED** | 5 → **13**; props rendered **546 → 2,780** (5.1×); mean **4.22** books/prop | **AGGREGATOR widening is LIVE.** Of 2,234 newly-visible props, **31.2% carry a real non-DFS price**; **68.8% are DFS-only** — shown, tagged, never a market |
| **model input** | **byte-identical** — 546 gradeable props, `v1_first_book` | `MODEL_BOOKS` gate in `dedupeProps` + `indexOddsProps`. Lifts only on the re-run |
| **accrual clock** | **sequential, post-completion** | see §11. Pre-completion data does not count and is never pooled |
**The honest framing:** widening books is an **AGGREGATOR** win. **It does not fix