Build the gate, run it, and find we were proving things on the wrong stat

PREMISE CORRECTION FIRST. statModel.js and correlateValidator.js do not exist
in this repository. The validation spec's only prior form is
src/services/python/blueprints/unconventional.py -- a Flask blueprint in the
Python service that is offline in production, scoring NBA factors against a
warehouse that was never populated -- and tests/unit/supplementSystems.test.js
requires only fs and path while defining its own validateFactor inline at line
368. Those tests assert a re-implementation of the thresholds, not an
implementation, which is exactly why they passed for months while nothing was
connected. The diagnosis behind the order is right -- every challenger was
measured without a gate -- but the cause is that there was no gate on the Node
side to import. So it is built, to the exact spec.

correlateValidator: n>=500, |r|>=0.15, p<0.05, Bonferroni across the sweep.
The p-value is exact rather than approximated (t-transform through a
regularized incomplete beta) and is verified in the suite against known
values, because scipy is not available here. Pairs with an unknown side are
dropped, never zero-filled -- a zero-fill inside a correlation does not add
noise, it invents a point at the origin.

THE RUN, hits, n=570, Bonferroni-8: every skill feature fails, and not
narrowly. The strongest marginal correlation against the counter's residual is
0.062 against a 0.15 bar. That is an effect-size failure at a sample that
would have found a real effect comfortably -- a clean, well-powered negative.
The head-to-head agrees: value engine 0.0499 against the counter's 0.166,
delta -0.116 with CI [-0.189, -0.043]. Not promoted.

THE RUN, total bases, n=295: cannot be tested, and that is the finding.
hard_hit_pct shows a marginal r of 0.153 -- above the threshold -- and exit
velo 0.124, refused solely because n is 205 short of 500. It is the most
encouraging number this work has produced, and it is what the physics
predicts: contact quality governs extra bases, not whether a grounder finds a
hole. We have been testing skill inputs on the one stat where they should not
matter much.

Two things the run forced. Feature verdicts are now PER STAT, because marking
these DEAD sport-wide on hits evidence would have killed, for total bases, the
features that look most alive there -- per-sport doctrine one level deeper.
And the gate now reports r and p even when underpowered, because "not enough
data yet" and "nothing here" demand opposite decisions and a bare refusal was
hiding the best signal on the board.

Next: build the compound TB projection (skillProjection still refuses total
bases by design, since a deterministic bases-per-hit made P(TB>=2) identical
to P(hits>=1)), accrue to n>=500, re-run this gate. Leave hits alone.

4,200 tests green (334 suites); web build exit 0; counter byte-identical.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>
Claude-Session: https://claude.ai/code/session_01W1sivYNqY2TS5ftykmHBU9

BUILD-STATE.md

@@ -3,6 +3,28 @@
 ## Last Updated
 2026-08-03
 
+## Session 81 (2026-08-03) — The gate, built and run: hits is dead, total bases is the stat ✅
+Spec: `specs/stagea-gate-result.md`. 4,200 tests / 334 suites green, build exit 0.
+Counter byte-identical (zero diff on probabilityEstimator/analyzeViaEngine1).
+- **PREMISE CORRECTED:** statModel.js and correlateValidator.js do NOT exist in
+  this repo. The spec lived only in an offline Python blueprint, and
+  supplementSystems.test.js inlines its own validateFactor (requires just
+  fs/path). Nothing to connect — so the gate was BUILT to spec.
+- **`correlateValidator.js`** — n>=500, |r|>=0.15, p<0.05, Bonferroni. Exact
+  p-value (incomplete beta), unit-verified against known values.
+- **GATE RUN, hits (n=570, Bonferroni-8): EVERYTHING FAILS.** Max marginal |r|
+  0.062 vs the 0.15 bar — an effect-size failure at a well-powered n. Head-to-head
+  also loses: 0.0499 vs counter 0.166, delta −0.116 CI [−0.189,−0.043].
+- **GATE RUN, total_bases (n=295): CANNOT TEST — and that is the finding.**
+  hard_hit_pct marginal r=0.153 (above threshold), exit_velo 0.124; refused only
+  on n. ~205 more settled rows needed. Matches the physics: contact quality
+  drives extra bases, not singles.
+- **Architecture change the run forced:** per-STAT feature verdicts, so a feature
+  dead for hits stays alive for TB. Gate now reports r/p when underpowered.
+- **Next:** build the compound TB value projection (per-hit bases distribution
+  from launch/barrel — skillProjection still refuses TB by design), accrue to
+  n>=500, re-run the gate. Leave hits alone. Do not lower the bar.
+
 ## Session 80 (2026-08-03) — The skill engine: built, gated, and Stage A honestly lost ✅
 Spec: `specs/skill-engine-architecture.md`. 4,182 tests / 333 suites green, build exit 0.
 - **BUILT `src/services/model/`:** `featureRegistry` (CANDIDATE/PROVEN/DEAD per