feat: Feature 1.3 — Prop Analysis Engine with 6-step grading pipeline

Core intelligence for BetonBLK prop analysis: - POST /api/analyze/prop — single prop analysis - POST /api/analyze/batch — multi-prop analysis for parlay scanner - 6-step pipeline: season avg → recent form → situational splits → cross-book lines → kill conditions → grade (A/B/C/D) - 6 kill conditions: low_minutes, small_sample, b2b_high_usage, blowout_risk, split_conflict, no_opponent_data - Composite scoring with confidence (30-95), bonuses, penalties - Added spreads market to Odds API fetch (zero extra credits) - Full reasoning output with step-by-step breakdown 36 new tests (unit + integration), 128 total across all features Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.6 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-03-21 11:41:18 -04:00
parent 3da1b4242c
commit c8c0962e56
16 changed files with 1560 additions and 40 deletions
@@ -0,0 +1,111 @@
+const { computeGrade } = require('../../src/services/grader');
+
+function makeStepResults(overrides = {}) {
+  return {
+    seasonDelta: 0,
+    recentDelta: 0,
+    situationalDelta: 0,
+    lineEdge: 0,
+    killConditions: [],
+    gamesPlayed: 65,
+    seasonAndRecentAgree: null,
+    ...overrides,
+  };
+}
+
+describe('grader', () => {
+  describe('grade assignment', () => {
+    test('composite >= 3.0 returns grade A with confidence 80-95', () => {
+      // composite = (4*1 + 4*1.5 + 4*1.2 + 4*0.8) / 4.5 = 18/4.5 = 4.0
+      const result = computeGrade(makeStepResults({
+        seasonDelta: 4, recentDelta: 4, situationalDelta: 4, lineEdge: 4,
+      }));
+      expect(result.grade).toBe('A');
+      expect(result.confidence).toBeGreaterThanOrEqual(80);
+      expect(result.confidence).toBeLessThanOrEqual(95);
+    });
+
+    test('composite 1.5-2.99 returns grade B with confidence 65-79', () => {
+      // composite = (2*1 + 2*1.5 + 2*1.2 + 2*0.8) / 4.5 = 9/4.5 = 2.0
+      const result = computeGrade(makeStepResults({
+        seasonDelta: 2, recentDelta: 2, situationalDelta: 2, lineEdge: 2,
+      }));
+      expect(result.grade).toBe('B');
+      expect(result.confidence).toBeGreaterThanOrEqual(65);
+      expect(result.confidence).toBeLessThanOrEqual(79);
+    });
+
+    test('composite 0.5-1.49 returns grade C with confidence 50-64', () => {
+      // composite = (1*1 + 1*1.5 + 1*1.2 + 0*0.8) / 4.5 = 3.7/4.5 ≈ 0.82
+      const result = computeGrade(makeStepResults({
+        seasonDelta: 1, recentDelta: 1, situationalDelta: 1, lineEdge: 0,
+      }));
+      expect(result.grade).toBe('C');
+      expect(result.confidence).toBeGreaterThanOrEqual(50);
+      expect(result.confidence).toBeLessThanOrEqual(64);
+    });
+
+    test('composite < 0.5 returns grade D with confidence 30-49', () => {
+      const result = computeGrade(makeStepResults({
+        seasonDelta: -1, recentDelta: -1, situationalDelta: -1, lineEdge: 0,
+      }));
+      expect(result.grade).toBe('D');
+      expect(result.confidence).toBeGreaterThanOrEqual(30);
+      expect(result.confidence).toBeLessThanOrEqual(49);
+    });
+  });
+
+  describe('kill condition penalty', () => {
+    test('caps grade at C and reduces confidence by 15', () => {
+      const result = computeGrade(makeStepResults({
+        seasonDelta: 4, recentDelta: 4, situationalDelta: 4, lineEdge: 4,
+        killConditions: [{ code: 'blowout_risk' }],
+      }));
+      expect(result.grade).toBe('C');
+      // Original would be A (80+), minus 15 = 65+
+      expect(result.confidence).toBeLessThan(85);
+    });
+
+    test('grade B with kill condition becomes C', () => {
+      const result = computeGrade(makeStepResults({
+        seasonDelta: 2, recentDelta: 2, situationalDelta: 2, lineEdge: 2,
+        killConditions: [{ code: 'low_minutes' }],
+      }));
+      expect(result.grade).toBe('C');
+    });
+  });
+
+  describe('bonuses', () => {
+    test('sample bonus +5 for > 50 games', () => {
+      const with50 = computeGrade(makeStepResults({ seasonDelta: 1, recentDelta: 1, gamesPlayed: 55 }));
+      const without = computeGrade(makeStepResults({ seasonDelta: 1, recentDelta: 1, gamesPlayed: 20 }));
+      expect(with50.confidence).toBe(without.confidence + 5);
+    });
+
+    test('sample bonus +3 for > 30 games', () => {
+      const with30 = computeGrade(makeStepResults({ seasonDelta: 1, recentDelta: 1, gamesPlayed: 35 }));
+      const without = computeGrade(makeStepResults({ seasonDelta: 1, recentDelta: 1, gamesPlayed: 20 }));
+      expect(with30.confidence).toBe(without.confidence + 3);
+    });
+
+    test('consistency bonus +5 when season and recent agree', () => {
+      const agree = computeGrade(makeStepResults({
+        seasonDelta: 2, recentDelta: 2, seasonAndRecentAgree: true,
+      }));
+      const noInfo = computeGrade(makeStepResults({
+        seasonDelta: 2, recentDelta: 2, seasonAndRecentAgree: null,
+      }));
+      expect(agree.confidence).toBe(noInfo.confidence + 5);
+    });
+
+    test('consistency penalty -5 when season and recent conflict', () => {
+      const conflict = computeGrade(makeStepResults({
+        seasonDelta: 2, recentDelta: 2, seasonAndRecentAgree: false,
+      }));
+      const noInfo = computeGrade(makeStepResults({
+        seasonDelta: 2, recentDelta: 2, seasonAndRecentAgree: null,
+      }));
+      expect(conflict.confidence).toBe(noInfo.confidence - 5);
+    });
+  });
+});