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Reconcile MASTER-PLAN to true state; next order = matchup axis

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Reconciled in place, not regenerated. Next-order pointer now MATCHUP AXIS
with its verified sourcing table, and an explicit note that
SOURCE-LINEUPS-first is NOT needed.

Marked DONE with their evidence: p_win ranking + edge retirement,
calibration DECIDED, MLB isotonic DECIDED (provisional label retracted),
grade cap 25->500 (board 7->365+), book widening, S59 invariant armed,
environment axis repaired.

Records the honest shape of Phase 1: it is further along than the phase
table implied, but mostly because the work turned out to be CONNECTION AND
REPAIR rather than construction -- the ladder question dissolved, the cap
was discarding 95.7% of the slate, and two condition axes were wired but
firing on zero rows.

Carried forward without softening: WNBA is NOT BUILT rather than failed,
and the ruler is MARKET-not-SHARP with PENDING-RECOVERY status until
PropLine answers the Pinnacle question -- not to be enshrined as permanent.

Remaining ~19 orders, ~9 unblocked. The two accruing verdicts are time,
not code.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>
Claude-Session: https://claude.ai/code/session_01QJs13VsyiSKYQP6rj3NNmc
This commit is contained in:
Kev
2026-08-01 23:30:03 -04:00
parent 03efdda33c
commit cfda597fb5
1 changed files with 47 additions and 27 deletions
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specs/MASTER-PLAN.md
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@@ -29,37 +29,31 @@ stay provisional until re-run** · documented ≠ verified.
## ▶ NEXT EXECUTABLE ORDER
**DONE 2026-08-01** — the MLB re-run landed, and it dissolved rather than answered
its own question: **calibration is ruler-independent**, so MLB isotonic was never
gated on the ruler. See `specs/mlb-recalibration-vs-consensus-ruler.md`.
**BUILD THE MATCHUP (PLATOON) AXIS on `challengerProjection` (arch-v1).**
Sourcing verified 2026-08-01 by VALUE, not endpoint presence:
**The next order follows from what that measurement found, not from the plan:**
| input | coverage | source |
|---|---:|---|
| opposing probable starter | **29/30 team-sides** | schedule `hydrate=probablePitcher` |
| pitcher hand (L/R) | **1342/1342** | `pitchHand.code` |
| batter hand (L/R/S) | **1342/1342** | `batSide.code` (L 416 / R 848 / S 78) |
> **`p_win` predicts outcomes (r = +0.26). `p_win − fair_prob` does not
> (r = −0.01 to −0.02, either ruler).** Subtracting the market destroys the
> signal. So the build is: **make the served product rank on `p_win`, not on
> edge** — and retire market-relative edge from every ranking, gate and display
> where it still sits.
**One shared dependency unlocks it:** `/sports/1/players` — a list we already
fetch and cache — carries `currentTeam.id`, `batSide` **and** `pitchHand`.
**SOURCE-LINEUPS-first is NOT needed.** Archetype-level reach on the opposing
starter is also available (the SP resolves to a player id, so the existing
classifier applies) — noted, not built.
Two things gate on accrual instead of on code, and cannot be rushed:
- The **exchange-inclusive ruler** is untestable until v2-era captures accrue.
- The **edge verdict** may change under that ruler — or may not; today it is
unproven either way, and 'unproven' is the honest label.
*Blocked on nothing.*
**DONE 2026-08-01** — the challenger is built and measured
(`specs/rank-on-pwin-challenger.md`): `rankByForecast` (p_win-first, **no edge
term**), delta recorded (MLB **87.5% of props move, top read changes**), edge
retired from decisions and from display quality-signalling, `forecast_rank`
stamped additively, **MLB-only by an enforced `FORECAST_RANKED_SPORTS` guard**.
### Accruing in parallel — do NOT re-run early
- **`opportunity_drift`** — live, 142 rows/slate, orthogonal (r ≈ 0 vs every
projection input). Verdict n-blocked; `scripts/opportunity-axis-holdout.sql`.
- **`environment`** — resolver fixed and verified (105/120), **first ledger write
is tomorrow's slate** (same-day rows dedupe by design and cannot backfill).
**THE FLIP IS THE NEXT ORDER** — one decision, three edits. **Re-run the delta on
a full MLB slate first**; it measured on 8 graded props.
**Open, cheap, unrelated to the model:** the 🔴 pinnacle question (logged in
`BLOCKERS.md`), and the display layer still shows nothing of the widened
multi-book data.
---
Both promote only on their own axis-filtered holdout, and only if **reliability
AND resolution** improve.
## 📍 STATE AS OF 2026-08-01 (Order Zero, measured on prod with the real key)
@@ -78,6 +72,10 @@ multi-book data.
| **soccer** | **settles** — ~15 competitions, 30d | "grades into a void" is a **$19/mo Pro-tier** problem, not a data problem |
| **CLV + results feeds** | `/odds/closing` + `/movement` **redacted**; `/results` **403 `required_tier: hobby`**; `/exports/resolved-props` **403 `required_tier: pro`** | **verified on our keys** — plain tier exclusion, not a key or plan fault. **$9/mo** buys CLV + steam + results; **$19/mo** adds the 90-day settlement export |
| **books SERVED** | 5 → **13**; props rendered **546 → 2,780** (5.1×); mean **4.22** books/prop | **AGGREGATOR widening is LIVE.** Of 2,234 newly-visible props, **31.2% carry a real non-DFS price**; **68.8% are DFS-only** — shown, tagged, never a market |
| ✅ **p_win ranking / edge retired** | DONE — boards rank on `forecast_rank`, edge is diagnostic-only, rollback armed (`FORECAST_RANK=0`) | `specs/rank-on-pwin-challenger.md` |
| ✅ **calibration** | **DECIDED** — ruler-independent; MLB isotonic **DECIDED**, not provisional | `specs/mlb-recalibration-vs-consensus-ruler.md` |
| ✅ **grade cap** | DONE — 25 → 500; board **7 → 365+** graded props | `specs/grade-cap-and-refusal-diagnosis.md` |
| ✅ **S59 join invariant** | **ARMED** — root cause was `searchPlayer` returning `team: null` (`currentTeam` has no `name`); fail-safe: drops only on a positive not-in-game | `tests/unit/slateJoinInvariant.test.js` |
| **arch-v1 condition axes** | **env + matchup fired on 0/634 prod rows** — `team` was null on 416/416, so the venue join had no key. **Environment FIXED** (joins on the game; resolves 105/120). **Matchup still dead** — needs opposing SP + both hands, three separate absences | `specs/arch-v1-axis-audit.md` |
| **opportunity_drift** | built, orthogonal (r≈0), live as a challenger on 142 rows/slate | verdict n-blocked; `scripts/opportunity-axis-holdout.sql` |
| **opportunity layer** | **NOT BUILT** — `ab_per_game` is display-only; engine1 has no usage factor; MLB batting order unavailable in every wired source | Step 0 stopped before wiring. Recommended instead: an `opportunity_drift` axis on the EXISTING `challengerProjection` (arch-v1). See `specs/connect-opportunity-step0.md` |
@@ -207,7 +205,29 @@ a sport is a module. **Blocks all of A2 after MLB.**
| **7. Chrome audit + hardening** | 2 | the 11-item visual sweep · credential rotation + migration-drift reconciliation | ship |
**Phases 1–4 and 6–7 = ~17 orders. Phase 5 = 1 order per sport (6 listed).**
**Total ≈ 23 orders to the end state**, of which **~11 are unblocked today**.
> **RECONCILED 2026-08-01.** Phase 1 (MLB model truth) is the ACTIVE phase and is
> further along than the table above implies — but not because orders were
> ticked off as planned. Most of it turned out to be **connection and repair, not
> construction**: the ladder question dissolved (calibration is ruler-
> independent), the cap was discarding 95.7% of the slate, and two condition axes
> were wired but firing on zero rows.
>
> **Closed:** p_win ranking + edge retirement · calibration DECIDED · MLB isotonic
> DECIDED · grade cap 25→500 · book widening (display) · S59 invariant armed ·
> environment axis repaired.
>
> **Open in Phase 1:** matchup axis (next order) · the two accruing verdicts
> (`opportunity_drift`, `environment`) — **time, not code** · connect the still-
> dormant layers (similarity, Bayesian, distribution ladder).
>
> **Carried, not in Phase 1:** WNBA is **NOT BUILT**, not failed (its −0.12 was
> NBA-template machinery on WNBA data) · the consensus ruler is **MARKET, not
> SHARP**, and that is **PENDING-RECOVERY** until PropLine answers why Pinnacle
> MLB prop coverage stopped on 2026-07-31 (`BLOCKERS.md`) — do not enshrine it as
> permanent.
>
> **Remaining to the end state: ≈ 19 orders**, of which **~9 are unblocked today**.
---