S1 (a1): feature-promise audit — no claim survives unverified

PROMISE-AUDIT.md: every /pricing claim → verified/built/reworded.
BUILT (was vapor): alt line ladder + edge ranking (same-features regrade
at shifted lines, Desk-gated at the API), quarter-Kelly (engine quantile
P(win) x real captured odds — either missing → no sizing), free-tier
kill-condition locked previews. FIXED (was false): analyst 15/day cap vs
the Founder 'Unlimited reads' promise → analyst unlimited; every '40+
factors' claim (real count: 22 named features) reworded truthfully in 7
files. VERIFIED: cascade alerts (real, wired), phi correlation,
leg history, cross-book comparison, WC soccer, real-time feed.
Locked by tests/unit/promiseAudit.test.js. Jest now ignores
.claude/worktrees (parallel agents' suites no longer leak into runs).

Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>

PROMISE-AUDIT.md

@@ -0,0 +1,35 @@
+# PROMISE-AUDIT — every /pricing claim, verified / built / removed
+### Session 62 (A1 board, Session 1). No claim survives unverified. Locked by tests/unit/promiseAudit.test.js.
+
+| Claim (pricing page) | Verdict | Evidence |
+|---|---|---|
+| Free: 3 reads per day | **VERIFIED** | `tiers.js free.scans_per_day=3`; limiter enforces; Settings meter reads the same store |
+| Free: Grade letter + projection | **VERIFIED** | Grade + real MODEL projection (S58 — never the line); refusals when no projection |
+| Free: Cross-book line comparison | **VERIFIED** | GAME LINES 8-book table + BestLinesPanel; per-prop best-book marker shipping in S3 |
+| Free: Confidence indicator | **VERIFIED** | Confidence % on card, strips, leaders |
+| Free: Factor analysis (blurred) | **BUILT/REWORDED** | Copy now "3-signal preview" (the truth); free gets exactly 3 signals |
+| Free: Kill conditions (blurred) | **BUILT** | Copy now "locked preview"; free NOW renders code-only teaser chips ("TRAP — upgrade to see details") instead of silence — `gradeAdapter` + tierGating locked entries |
+| Free: Alt line ladder (locked) | **VERIFIED** | Desk-gated at the API (new `alt_line_ladder` capability); free card shows the DESK-tagged section only when data present (never for free) |
+| Africa: 10 reads per day | **VERIFIED** | `tiers.js africa.scans_per_day=10` |
+| Analyst: Full factor analysis (40+ signals) | **REWORDED** | Real named-feature count is 22 (+trap/consistency signals) — "40+" was unverifiable. Now "every signal the model weighs" in ALL 7 places (pricing, help, about, upgrade, both cards). Numbers only when true |
+| Analyst: Kill conditions surfaced inline | **VERIFIED** | tierGating `kill_conditions_detail`; card renders reasons |
+| Analyst: Grade + reasoning visible | **VERIFIED** | tierGating passthrough |
+| Analyst: World Cup soccer intelligence | **VERIFIED** | `/api/odds/soccer/wc`, soccer tab, soccer in ACTIVE_SPORTS (July = WC window) |
+| Analyst: Cascade alerts | **VERIFIED/REWORDED** | REAL: `cascadeService.detectScratches` runs on every odds fetch → `cascade_alerts` → NotificationBell. Copy tightened to "Scratch cascade alerts when players are pulled" (what it actually does; lineup-shift regrades are a future board) |
+| Analyst: Parlay leg history with grades | **VERIFIED** | Parlay scans persist pick rows w/ grades; `/api/props/joint-history` (analyst+) serves joint outcomes |
+| Analyst: Sportsbook deep links | **VERIFIED** | Scan hand-off links (noopener); S3 upgrades to per-book BOOK IT builder |
+| Founder: Unlimited reads | **BUILT** | Was FALSE (analyst capped 15/day while card + Nav ∞ badge promised unlimited). `analyst.scans_per_day → Infinity`; Desk differentiates on capability, not rationing |
+| Desk: Alt line ladder + edge ranking | **BUILT** | Was VAPOR (frontend existed, no producer). `analyzeViaEngine1` now grades the SAME feature vector at ±0.5/±1 lines (zero extra I/O), each rung carries grade + edge%, sorted by edge = the ranking. API-gated Desk-only |
+| Desk: Quarter-Kelly sizing | **BUILT** | Was VAPOR (marketing copy only). `src/utils/kelly.js`: quarter-Kelly from the engine's quantile P(win) (game-log based) × the REAL captured book odds — either missing → no sizing, never a default. Rendered on the Desk card ("QTR-KELLY 1.4% of bankroll · at -115") |
+| Desk: Real-time intelligence feed | **VERIFIED** | Ticker (snapshot exhaust) + 20-min intraday refresh (STEAM/VALUE/MOVE) + live slate strip |
+| Desk: Parlay correlation analysis (phi) | **VERIFIED** | `parlayService` numeric correlation + S28 phi matrix; joint-history endpoint |
+| Desk: Consensus vs model comparison | **VERIFIED (thin)** | MODEL vs LINE vs multi-book board on every read; `lineDiscrepancyDetector` exists server-side. Honest note: a labeled multi-book consensus average is a small future upgrade, the comparison itself is real |
+
+## Deviations made to keep the page honest
+1. All "40+ factors" claims removed product-wide (7 files) — replaced with wording that is true at any factor count.
+2. Analyst reads: 15/day → unlimited (the promise wins; capacity cost is nil — reads are cached compute).
+3. "Cascade alerts" reworded to the shipped behavior (scratch cascades), not the aspirational one.
+4. Free kill-conditions changed from hidden → locked preview to match "(blurred/locked)" copy.
+
+## What a paying user gets that didn't exist this morning
+Alt line ladder with edge ranking · quarter-Kelly sizing on real prices · truly unlimited analyst reads · free-tier kill-condition previews.