S1 (a1): feature-promise audit — no claim survives unverified

PROMISE-AUDIT.md: every /pricing claim → verified/built/reworded.
BUILT (was vapor): alt line ladder + edge ranking (same-features regrade
at shifted lines, Desk-gated at the API), quarter-Kelly (engine quantile
P(win) x real captured odds — either missing → no sizing), free-tier
kill-condition locked previews. FIXED (was false): analyst 15/day cap vs
the Founder 'Unlimited reads' promise → analyst unlimited; every '40+
factors' claim (real count: 22 named features) reworded truthfully in 7
files. VERIFIED: cascade alerts (real, wired), phi correlation,
leg history, cross-book comparison, WC soccer, real-time feed.
Locked by tests/unit/promiseAudit.test.js. Jest now ignores
.claude/worktrees (parallel agents' suites no longer leak into runs).

Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
This commit is contained in:
Kev
2026-07-11 14:24:41 -04:00
parent e4d2e79f95
commit d242b11b4b
20 changed files with 296 additions and 30 deletions
@@ -406,6 +406,50 @@ async function analyzeViaEngine1(rawProp = {}) {
// ledger model_value and rendered under the MODEL label on the card.
legacy.projection = projection;
// Session 62 (A1-S1) — ALT LINE LADDER + EDGE RANKING. The pricing page
// sold it; the adapter/card were already built for it; nothing produced
// it. Re-grade the SAME feature vector at shifted lines (zero extra I/O)
// and rank by edge. Attached for every graded result; the API tier gate
// strips it below Desk.
try {
const baseLine = Number(prop.line);
if (Number.isFinite(baseLine)) {
const ladder = [-1, -0.5, 0, 0.5, 1]
.map((shift) => Math.round((baseLine + shift) * 100) / 100)
.filter((ln) => ln > 0)
.map((ln) => {
const shiftedProp = { ...prop, line: ln };
const g = engine1.gradeProp({ features, trap, consistency, prop: shiftedProp });
const adapted = toLegacyShape(g, {
player: rawProp.player, stat_type: rawProp.stat_type,
line: ln, direction: prop.direction, book: rawProp.book || 'unknown', sport: meta.sport,
}, { edgePct: edgePctFor(features, { ...shiftedProp, stat_type: rawProp.stat_type, direction: prop.direction }) });
return { line: ln, grade: adapted.grade, edge_pct: adapted.edge_pct, base: ln === baseLine };
})
.sort((a, b) => (Number(b.edge_pct) || 0) - (Number(a.edge_pct) || 0));
if (ladder.length > 1) legacy.alt_lines = ladder;
}
} catch { /* the ladder is additive — never breaks the read */ }
// Session 62 (A1-S1) — QUARTER-KELLY. Real probability (quantile estimator
// over the actual game logs) × real book odds, or nothing. Never derived
// from confidence, never a default vig.
try {
const { estimateProbability } = require('./probabilityEstimator');
const est = estimateProbability({ gameLogs: meta.gameLogs, line: prop.line, statType: rawProp.stat_type, features });
const pWin = String(prop.direction || 'over').toLowerCase() === 'under'
? (Number.isFinite(est.p_over) ? 1 - est.p_over : null)
: (Number.isFinite(est.p_over) ? est.p_over : null);
if (pWin != null) legacy.p_win = Math.round(pWin * 1000) / 1000;
const sideOdds = String(prop.direction || 'over').toLowerCase() === 'under'
? rawProp.under_odds : rawProp.over_odds;
if (pWin != null && sideOdds != null) {
const { quarterKelly } = require('../../utils/kelly');
const k = quarterKelly(pWin, sideOdds);
if (k) legacy.kelly = { ...k, odds: String(sideOdds) };
}
} catch { /* sizing is additive — absent beats wrong */ }
return legacy;
}