Session 58: Phase 1 — Truth Infrastructure (2327 tests)

ledger_entries is live (migration 019 applied to prod, RLS + NULLS NOT
DISTINCT dedupe verified against the real database). Every grade now
persists, settles against the real result, and carries closing-line value.

- ledgerService: pipeline pre-grade upserts (public model record, user_id
  null, idempotent), closing capture on every snapshot (last write before
  game start = the close), settlement with SIGNED CLV (over = locked -
  closing; beat/faded/flat), 30d model aggregate with the hard n>=20 rule.
- Write paths: snapshotService -> ledger (priority path); Next /api/scan ->
  ledger for authenticated users only (anon never touches the public
  record). Refused reads write nothing and don't burn a scan.
- Honest refusal (work-order 1.5): no projection => insufficient_data,
  grade null, "INSUFFICIENT DATA - no read" UI. The web gradeAdapter no
  longer displays the line as the model projection (the audit's
  model==line / +0% edge degenerate); the card renders absent states.
  projectionFor is sport-aware (l5 -> l20 -> {stat}_per_90 -> xG).
- /ledger: MY READS | MODEL tabs; model header shows hit% + beat-close%
  only at n>=20, else RECORD BUILDING + live pending count. ModelRecord
  deferred-render strip on landing + player hero. CLV + outcome chips,
  revised_from_grade strikethrough (Phase 2.5 ready).
- SYNC (Task 5): thresholds vs SNAPSHOT_EXPECTED_INTERVAL (normal <1.5x,
  amber >=1.5x, STALE red >=3x) via /api/snapshot/summary.
- Phase 2.5 logged in specs/vyndr-roadmap.md (build after Phase 3).
- Data-semantics hardening: strict null-safe numeric parsing everywhere a
  market value is handled (Number(null)===0 would have fabricated lines).

Backend 2309 -> 2327 tests (201 suites), web build exit 0.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>

tests/unit/analyzeViaEngine1.test.js

@@ -129,14 +129,18 @@ describe('analyzeViaEngine1 — graceful degradation', () => {
       player: 'Ghost', stat_type: 'points', line: 25, direction: 'over', sport: 'nba',
     });
 
-    expect(out.grade).toBe('C');
-    expect(out.confidence).toBe(10);
-    expect(out.reasoning.summary).toMatch(/Unable to compute|provisional/);
+    // Session 58 (work-order 1.5) — this used to ship a hollow C at 10%
+    // confidence (the audit's model==line degenerate). Now it REFUSES.
+    expect(out.grade).toBeNull();
+    expect(out.insufficient_data).toBe(true);
+    expect(out.confidence).toBe(0);
+    expect(out.projection).toBeNull();
+    expect(out.reasoning.summary).toMatch(/INSUFFICIENT DATA — no read/);
     expect(out.reasoning.summary).toContain("couldn't find");
     expect(out.kill_conditions_triggered).toEqual([]);
   });
 
-  test('partial data (player found, no game) still grades via engine1', async () => {
+  test('partial data WITHOUT a projection refuses honestly (no hollow grade)', async () => {
     mockComputeReturn.current = {
       features: {},
       trap: { composite: 0, signals: {} },
@@ -155,11 +159,36 @@ describe('analyzeViaEngine1 — graceful degradation', () => {
       player: 'P', stat_type: 'points', line: 25, direction: 'over', sport: 'nba',
     });
 
-    // Did NOT fall through to fallbackLegacyResult — engine1 was invoked.
-    expect(out.grade).toBe('C');
-    expect(out.confidence).toBe(40);
+    // No l5/l20 reference ⇒ the model has no projection ⇒ no read. The old
+    // behavior graded C/40 here — a grade the model couldn't actually back.
+    expect(out.grade).toBeNull();
+    expect(out.insufficient_data).toBe(true);
     expect(out.reasoning.summary).toContain('No game scheduled');
   });
+
+  test('a projection unlocks the grade AND is attached to the result', async () => {
+    mockComputeReturn.current = {
+      features: { l5_avg: 28.4, l20_avg: 26.1 },
+      trap: { composite: 0, signals: {} },
+      consistency: { consistency: 'reliable', cv: 0.2, score: 0.7, games: 20 },
+      prop: { line: 25, direction: 'over' },
+      meta: { player: 'P', statType: 'points', book: 'dk', sport: 'nba',
+              teamAbbr: 'NYK', opponentAbbr: null, gameId: null, isHome: null,
+              gameLogs: [{ points: 25 }], errors: [] },
+    };
+    mockEngine1Return.current = {
+      grade: 'B', confidence: 0.6,
+      top_factors: [], all_factors: [],
+    };
+
+    const out = await analyzeViaEngine1({
+      player: 'P', stat_type: 'points', line: 25, direction: 'over', sport: 'nba',
+    });
+
+    expect(out.grade).toBe('B');
+    expect(out.insufficient_data).toBeUndefined();
+    expect(out.projection).toBe(28.4); // the REAL model reference, never the line
+  });
 });
 
 describe('analyzeViaEngine1 — interface verifications', () => {