plan: specs/MASTER-PLAN.md — single source of truth, 7 phases, ~23 orders, defined END
Consolidation only. Nothing built, wired or promoted. NOTHING WAS RE-VERIFIED and no query was run — all 22 artifacts produced this session plus the completion matrix were taken as KNOWN, per the order's own clause. The verification ledger at the top of the plan lists exactly what was taken as known and which four items remain genuinely open (sport order, board-reasoning gating, the CLV flag, team colours) — each open because it needs a decision or a build, not a query. The plan captures all six tracks in one document: per-sport models (MLB's 8-layer stack with each layer marked BUILT/PARTIAL/NOT-WIRED, plus the sport order), design implementation (61 catalogued items), surfaces, the resolution tail, the sport boundary, and the Chrome audit. The through-line it makes visible: MLB's layers 2, 3, 5 and 6 are BUILT AND NOT CONNECTED, while layer 8 (the grade ladder) is connected and meaningless (r~0.005, inverted). MLB's fix is connection, not construction. Phasing is by dependency: MLB model truth -> resolution tail -> surfaces/design (parallel lane) -> sport boundary -> sport rollout (one order per sport) -> monetization finish -> Chrome audit and hardening. ~23 orders total, ~11 unblocked today, so "how many sessions left" now has a real answer. DEFINITION OF DONE is explicit and countable: MLB layers 1-8 connected with a monotone held-out-proven ladder; every listed sport finished on the same template or explicitly abstaining with its reason recorded; all 61 design items built; every surface reachable and honest; the resolution pipeline firing end-to-end; the sport boundary a registry; the Chrome audit passed; and the record publishable on its own terms with no claim outrunning its evidence. STATE.md now points at the plan and is demoted to history. Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com> Claude-Session: https://claude.ai/code/session_01QJs13VsyiSKYQP6rj3NNmc
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# VYNDR — MASTER PLAN
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**Single source of truth. Sessions EXECUTE against this and UPDATE it in place.**
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Created 2026-07-31 by consolidation. Nothing built in this pass.
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> **HOW TO USE:** this supersedes ad-hoc re-derivation. Before any order, read the
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> phase you're in. After any order, tick the item and add one line. **Do not
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> re-audit anything marked KNOWN** — that redundancy is what this document exists
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> to kill.
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---
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## 0. VERIFICATION LEDGER (what was re-checked in this pass)
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**NOTHING was re-verified. No query was run.** Everything required is already
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captured in 22 artifacts produced this session plus the canonical board. Per the
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order's own clause — *"If everything needed is already in the artifacts, say so and
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skip verification"* — this is that case.
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**Taken as KNOWN (source in brackets):**
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- Model architecture, all layers [`model-architecture-recovery-map.md`]
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- Grade↔outcome correlations, collapse cost [`full-output-grade-mapping.md`]
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- p_win calibration + holdout verdicts [`grade-diagnostic-t0.md`, `pwin-recalibration-holdout.md`]
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- Market-relative edge inversion [`grade-fix-part1-investigation.md`]
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- Design implemented-vs-designed, 61 items [`design-vs-build-gap-audit.md`]
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- Surface states, orphans, waves [`pre-audit-status-pull.md`, `incomplete-surface-triage.md`]
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- Resolution pipeline true state [`resolution-and-clv-investigation.md`, `wave3-*.md`]
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- Tier/monetization + founder mechanism [`tier-structure-pull.md`, `tier-redesign-spec.md`, `build2-review-zero-report.md`]
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- Sport-boundary cost [`model-architecture-recovery-map.md` §Phase 2]
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**Genuinely OPEN → carried as explicit unknowns (not verified because they need a
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build or a decision, not a query):** sport order (Kev's call, §A2); board-reasoning
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gating (a/b/c, §C2); CLV flag decision (§D3); the ~70 undefined team colours (§B).
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---
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## A. PER-SPORT MODELS — Phillips doctrine: each sport is its OWN model
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### A1. MLB layer stack (the reference module), bottom-up
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| # | layer | state | note |
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|---|---|---|---|
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| 1 | Data/feeds | **BUILT** | statsapi free+unlimited; statcast; park; weather; probables. Settles end-to-end. |
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| 2 | Similarity (comparable instances) | **BUILT · NOT WIRED · NOT DEPLOYED** | `python/utils/similarity.py`; grade path skips to season/recent averages |
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| 3 | Archetypes (batter + pitcher) | **BUILT · display only** | classifies + renders; **does NOT feed the grade** |
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| 4 | Variable weights | **PARTIAL/ASSUMED** | engine1's flat ±1.0/±0.5 deltas are hand-set, never fitted |
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| 5 | Conditions (park/weather/platoon/arsenal) | **BUILT · CHALLENGER ONLY** | rides `env_*`/`challenger_*`; "measured, never served" |
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| 6 | Bayesian inference | **BUILT · NOT WIRED · NOT DEPLOYED** | `python/utils/bayesian.py`, 320 ln, genuinely sport-agnostic math |
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| 7 | Calibration | **MEASURED, NOT APPLIED** | isotonic qualifies on holdout (rel .1038→.0939, res .139→.123, n=119) |
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| 8 | Grade ladder | **BROKEN** | letter is a factor index, r≈0.005, **inverted** (B 52.4% < C 56.9%) |
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**The through-line:** layers 2, 3, 5, 6 are built and *not connected*; layer 8 is
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connected and *meaningless*. MLB's fix is connection, not construction.
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### A2. Sport order (OPEN — Kev decides)
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Proposed by readiness × clock: **1) MLB** (reference, only qualifying model) →
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**2) CFB** (has a <30-day clock; soft-market thesis) → **3) NFL** → **4) NBA** →
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**5) CBB** → **6) WNBA re-attempt** (abstains today) → **7) soccer** (quota-blocked).
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Each gets the same 8-layer template. **No sport is abandoned — abstention is a
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state, not a verdict.**
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---
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## B. DESIGN IMPLEMENTATION — 61 items catalogued
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BUILT-TO-SPEC 20 · DRIFTED 7 · PARTIAL 16 · ABSENT 18. Ordered wire-in:
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**D1-A done** (6 combat glyphs, boundary-blue completed, reaction primitives, READ-FAB).
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**D1-finish done** (rationale/reveal/chips modules — *built, NOT mounted*).
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Remaining: **D1-close** (mount — blocked on a ROW-GRAMMAR slot amendment + §C2) ·
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**D1-B** (45 unwired glyphs + the 41-vs-74 archetype scope call) · S2 primitive set
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(movement strip, crown, disagreement axis, SPLIT) · S3 article media · The Report
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email + archive · Offseason artboards · **team colours: only 10 of ~80 defined —
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the rest render honest-neutral until a real source exists.**
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---
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## C. SURFACES
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**C1 — done:** Wave 1 wiring · `/compare` · `/record` · Build-1 gate.
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**C2 — OPEN DECISION (blocks D1-close):** board reasoning is served ungated while
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`tiers.js` declares `reasoning_visible:false`. Options (a) gate it, (b) accept as
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free funnel, (c) leave unrendered.
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**C3 — remaining:** `/record` **has no nav link** (the surface that justifies the
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price) · `/notifications` · Offseason hub · `/system` · S3 media · `/soccer`
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(quota) · share cards (blocked by D).
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---
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## D. RESOLUTION PIPELINE → USER OUTPUT
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**KNOWN and load-bearing: settlement WORKS** (scheduler → `settleAllOutcomes` +
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`settleAllLedgers`, 937+ settled, growing daily). **What is unreachable is the
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user-output TAIL:** `/api/grading/resolve` has no caller, and its fanout holds
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webPush/Telegram/Discord but **no share-card step and no recap**.
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**D1** wire a trigger (or move the fanout into the settle pass) · **D2** share-card
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generation + `/notifications` consent + result posts + recap · **D3 CLV flag
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decision** — `clvCaptureReliable()` is *one env var*, and the pre-registered rule
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stands: flip only if close_moved is a clear majority AND coverage is representative.
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**🔴 Never wire `/api/grading/resolve` as a second settlement path — it double-counts.**
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---
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## E. SPORT BOUNDARY
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Adding a sport is a **~10-file core edit** with four silent-failure modes
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(MARKET_MAP → zero props; three stat whitelists → silent 400s; missing projection →
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universal refusal; no settled feed → grades forever). **Collapse to a registry** so
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a sport is a module. **Blocks all of A2 after MLB.**
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---
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## F. CHROME AUDIT — 11 items, 4 need a Desk session. **Runs when surfaces are stable, not before.**
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---
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# THE PHASES — 7 phases, ~18 orders
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| phase | orders | contents | blocks |
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|---|---|---|---|
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| **1. MLB model truth** | 4 | promote isotonic p_win (MLB only, WNBA abstains) · rebuild the ladder on calibrated p_win · re-adjudicate (ROI-by-grade, skew, proj-v1.1, C1 floor) · connect layers 2/3/5/6 | everything model-shaped |
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| **2. Resolution tail** | 3 | trigger · share cards + notifications + posts + recap · CLV flag decision | share cards, social proof |
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| **3. Surfaces + design lane** *(parallel with 1-2)* | 4 | C2 decision → D1-close mount · `/record` nav + remaining surfaces · D1-B glyphs/archetypes · S2 primitives | Chrome audit |
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| **4. Sport boundary** | 2 | registry collapse · MLB re-expressed as the first module | all further sports |
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| **5. Sport rollout** | 1 per sport | CFB → NFL → NBA → CBB → WNBA retry → soccer, each on the 8-layer template | — |
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| **6. Monetization finish** | 2 | Stripe Phase-B live proof on first real signup · founder launch to the 3 existing users | — |
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| **7. Chrome audit + hardening** | 2 | the 11-item visual sweep · credential rotation + migration-drift reconciliation | ship |
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**Phases 1–4 and 6–7 = ~17 orders. Phase 5 = 1 order per sport (6 listed).**
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**Total ≈ 23 orders to the end state**, of which **~11 are unblocked today**.
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---
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# DEFINITION OF DONE
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**VYNDR is complete when:**
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1. **MLB layers 1–8 are BUILT AND CONNECTED** — similarity, archetypes, fitted
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weights, conditions and Bayesian all feed the grade; calibration applied; the
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ladder monotone (A>B>C, no inversion) and proven on held-out data.
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2. **Every listed sport is finished on the same 8-layer template**, or explicitly
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abstaining with its reason recorded — never silently absent.
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3. **Design fully implemented** — all 61 catalogued items BUILT-TO-SPEC.
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4. **Every surface built, reachable and honest** — no orphans, no live-but-not-honest
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surface, no dead component.
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5. **Resolution pipeline live end-to-end** — settle → share card / notification /
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post / recap, firing on a real settlement.
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6. **Sport boundary is a registry** — a new sport is a module, not a core edit.
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7. **Chrome audit passed**, logged-out and entitled.
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8. **The record is publishable on its own terms** — CLV either trustworthy-and-
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representative or honestly absent; no claim outruns its evidence.
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**The remaining work is finite and countable: ~23 orders across 7 phases.**
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---
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## STANDING LAWS (carried into every order)
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Truth Law — absent beats wrong, no fabrication up or down · per-sport models, never
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a global engine · lookahead guard (lock-time fields only) · overfitting guard (fit
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one split, prove another) · never mint A's without new information · aggregate proof
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is free, itemized judgment is paid · one canonical founder flag · atomicity by unique
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index, never a count · cache-bust every post-deploy check · verify-after-write.
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