Matchup axis report + plan reconciled: three challengers now accruing
Records the verification that matters: firing measured on a real prod snapshot rather than inferred. environment 248/293 (84.6%) -- also its FIRST confirmed ledger write, which the previous session could only infer -- and matchup 243/293 (82.9%) on tier batter_own_split. Both were 0/634. Collinearity guard passed at n=243: r = -0.003 vs the projection, +0.074 vs p_win, +0.003 vs line, -0.068 vs environment, -0.150 vs opportunity. The axis is not re-encoding recent form. The nudge distribution is also the right SHAPE -- mean +0.0007, 123 positive / 120 negative -- a balanced two-sided signal; a one-sided distribution would have suggested a sign or baseline error. Plan reconciled in place: arch-v1 condition axes marked firing, three challengers listed with coverage and their own holdout queries, and the next-order pointer moved to connecting the still-dormant layers (similarity, Bayesian, distribution ladder) with archetype_x_archetype as the named alternative. Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com> Claude-Session: https://claude.ai/code/session_01QJs13VsyiSKYQP6rj3NNmc
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# MATCHUP / PLATOON AXIS — BUILT, FIRING ON PROD, VERDICT PENDING
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**Date:** 2026-08-02 · ledger-only · champion `p_win`, ranking, calibration, the
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armed invariant and the two accruing verdicts **untouched**.
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**Gates:** 4,093 tests / 328 suites green · `next build` exit 0 ·
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**firing verified on a real prod snapshot** · collinearity guard passed.
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---
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## THE HEADLINE: TWO DEAD AXES ARE NOW LIVE
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Verified on an induced prod snapshot (293 grades), not on tests:
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| axis | tier | rows | % of slate | mean \|nudge\| |
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|---|---|---:|---:|---:|
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| **environment** | `env` | **248** | **84.6%** | 0.0574 |
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| **matchup** | **`batter_own_split`** | **243** | **82.9%** | 0.0152 |
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| opportunity | `opportunity` | 88 | 30.0% | 0.1419 |
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| *(no axis at all)* | — | 32 | 10.9% | — |
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**Both were 0/634 before.** This is also the **first confirmed ledger write of the
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environment axis**, which the previous session could only infer.
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---
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## WHAT WAS ACTUALLY BROKEN — three separate absences
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The axis was already wired. It fired on nothing because **every one of its three
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required joins was empty**:
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| input | was | fix |
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|---|---:|---|
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| `oppPitcherByTeam` | **0** | the self-origin `/api/schedule/mlb/pitchers` route returned nothing in prod → added the **statsapi probable-pitcher hydrate** as a fallback, mirroring the one the schedule step already uses. **29/30 team-sides**, one free request |
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| `handById` | **0** | follows from the above — the batched people call now has ids to ask about |
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| `bats` | **0/120** | batter hand rode **only** on statcast aggregate rows, which don't cover the slate. The season player list we **already fetch and cache** carries `batSide` on **1342/1342** — a join, not a fetch |
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Switch-hitters (`S`, 78 of 1342) are preserved as-is; `platoonSplits` decides what
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to do with them, not the join.
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---
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## THE FALLBACK LADDER — and a deliberate deviation
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**Shipped: `batter_own_split`** — the hitter's OWN vs-L/vs-R line, regressed
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toward **his own** overall rate. Labelled on every adjustment.
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### `league_generic` is deliberately NOT implemented
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`platoonSplits` already handles thin evidence by regressing toward the hitter's
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own rate — its own doc-comment argues that *a hitter with no evidence of a split
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correctly gets no adjustment*. A league split applied to that hitter models the
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**league, not the player** — the exact doctrine breach the order names in the same
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step it asks for the tier.
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**Adding it would have produced more firing rows and a weaker signal.** Coverage
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is already 82.9% without it.
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### `archetype_x_archetype` is scoped, not built
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It needs the opposing starter classified per game — real work, and its own order.
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The tier vocabulary is in place for it.
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**Neither absent tier is faked.** No adjustment ever claims a rung it did not use.
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---
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## COLLINEARITY GUARD — PASSED (n=243)
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The ledger doesn't store `l5`/`l20`, so the guard uses the quantities they
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**drive** and that are stored:
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| correlation | r |
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|---|---:|
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| matchup nudge vs **projection** (`model_value`) | **−0.003** |
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| matchup nudge vs **`p_win`** | **+0.074** |
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| matchup nudge vs **line** | **+0.003** |
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| matchup nudge vs environment nudge | −0.068 |
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| matchup nudge vs opportunity nudge | −0.150 |
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**Orthogonal to recent form and to every other axis.** It is not re-encoding
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something the projection already knows.
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**And the shape is right:** mean nudge **+0.0007**, sd 0.0202, **123 positive /
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120 negative**. A balanced two-sided signal with no systematic tilt — which is what
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a platoon read should look like. A one-sided distribution would have suggested a
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sign or baseline error.
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The mean |nudge| of **0.0152** is appropriately small: a platoon split is a real
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but modest effect, and it cannot outvote a measured archetype trait (0.11–0.22).
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---
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## HOLDOUT — COMMITTED, VERDICT n-BLOCKED
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`scripts/matchup-axis-holdout.sql`, filtered to **matchup-carrying rows only** —
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including untouched rows would dilute with rows where challenger ≡ champion **by
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construction**, biasing toward a false positive.
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**It keeps matchup's OWN nudge visible**, not just the combined challenger.
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arch-v1 now composes **four** axes into one `p_win_challenger`, so a combined-only
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view cannot tell which axis earned the movement — or which one is dragging. The
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query pulls `matchup_nudge` out of the adjustments array and correlates it with
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the outcome directly, so the axis can be **shelved alone**.
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**Three challengers now accrue in parallel** on one harness:
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| axis | coverage | verdict |
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|---|---:|---|
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| `opportunity` | 30.0% | n-blocked — needs settled rows |
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| `environment` | 84.6% | n-blocked — first writes confirmed today |
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| `matchup` | 82.9% | n-blocked — first writes today |
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Each promotes **only** on its own axis-filtered holdout, and **only** if
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**reliability AND resolution** both improve.
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---
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## WHAT IS UNTOUCHED
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Champion `p_win`, the live grade path, ranking, calibration, the armed S59
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invariant, and the two previously-accruing verdicts. All four axes write only to
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`p_win_challenger` / `challenger_adjustments`.
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## TAGS
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**VERIFIED:** matchup fires 243/293 (82.9%) and environment 248/293 (84.6%) on a
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real prod snapshot · three joins repaired (SP 29/30, pitcher hand, batter hand
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1342/1342) · collinearity r ≈ 0 against projection, p_win, line and both other
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axes · nudge distribution balanced 123/120.
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**NOT BUILT, BY DECISION:** `league_generic` (models the league, not the player).
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**NOT BUILT, BY SCOPE:** `archetype_x_archetype` (needs per-game SP classification).
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