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+# The accrual watch — the program is idle on modeling, and that is correct
+
+## PHASE 0 — live-surface integrity
+
+| check | result |
+|---|---|
+| Grade bands not derived from the retired champion | **PASS** — `gradeBands` is required by *no* serving code. Built across several orders, never wired. No stale band can reach a user because none reaches a user at all. |
+| No withdrawn-map leak | **PASS** — `CALIBRATION_DEPLOYED` is `[]` and the calibrate loop iterates it, so `calibrate()` is never called. The only `p_win_calibrated` assignment sits inside that empty loop. Served `p_win` is repaired-champion raw. |
+| Refusals on the repaired reference | **PASS** — `projectionFor` reads `l20_avg`, which `mlbGameLogFeatures` now builds from `fullLog`. |
+| Factors still fire post-repair | **PASS** — the repair moved the base they adjust, so sign was re-verified across it: at base 0.35/0.50/0.65/0.80, defence lowers, pitcher-contact raises, platoon raises at every point. Firing check only; **not** a lift re-measurement. |
+
+### One defect found, and it was mine
+
+The grade card rendered **"Last 20 games average: X"** from `l20_avg` — a field
+that, after the repair, holds a **full-season** average. The number moved and the
+label did not, so the surface asserted a window that no longer existed. Fixed to
+"Season average"; `trapDetection`'s L20 explanations likewise.
+
+Same class as everything else tonight, one layer out: **a correct-looking string
+describing data that moved underneath it.**
+
+---
+
+## PHASE 1 — the existence risk, resolved
+
+Nineteen commits (`7b85934` → `2391574`) were local-only with no push
+credentials. Three retrievable artifacts now exist:
+
+| artifact | path | size |
+|---|---|---|
+| session bundle | `~/vyndr-session-2026-08-07.bundle` | 244K |
+| **full-history bundle (self-contained)** | `~/vyndr-full-history-2026-08-07.bundle` | 6.8M |
+| patch series (20 files) | `~/vyndr-session-patches/` | 1.5M |
+
+**Use the full-history bundle** — the session bundle verifies as requiring ref
+`6452926…`, so it only applies onto a repo that already has this history. The
+full-history one clones standalone:
+
+```
+git clone ~/vyndr-full-history-2026-08-07.bundle vyndr-recovered
+```
+
+**This is the top non-accrual action item.** Copy one of these off the machine.
+
+---
+
+## PHASE 2 — the accrual watch
+
+```
+repaired champion marker: engine1@2026-08-07-fullwindow
+eligible rows: 0 | eligible dates: 0
+blocked: no settled rows yet carry the repaired champion marker
+```
+
+| item | need | have | status |
+|---|---|---|---|
+| calibration re-fit | 10 dates | 0 | WAITING |
+| hits factor lift | 10 dates | 0 | WAITING |
+| prior verdict re-audit | 14 dates | 0 | WAITING |
+| rbi lineup-slot gate | 14 dates | 0 | WAITING |
+
+Zero is the correct starting line: the repair ships in *this* session's commits,
+so no settled row can carry the marker yet.
+
+### These are ATTEMPT floors, not TRUST floors
+
+**Reaching 10 dates means "the calibration re-fit can now be measured." It does
+NOT mean the re-fit is trustworthy.** We lived this distinction the hard way
+tonight: date-block CIs on 2–4 clusters, a LODO gate with 1.4–9.3% power, and a
+≥40 date-cluster bar that was correct as a promotion bar and wrong as a deploy
+bar. A 10-date map is thin. It deploys **PROVISIONAL with auto-demotion**, like
+everything else, and its interval will still be wide.
+
+**No future session may read "threshold met" as "answer certified."**
+
+### Real-time estimates
+
+Roughly one MLB slate per day, but per-stat settled volume differs — hits props
+are far more numerous than rbi, and a "date" only counts once its props settle.
+
+| item | dates | realistic wall-clock |
+|---|---|---|
+| calibration re-fit, hits lift | 10 | **~2 weeks** |
+| verdict re-audit, rbi gate | 14 | **3+ weeks** (rbi accrues slowest) |
+
+The wait is **designed, not a stall.** The alternative — measuring on
+reconstructions of a retired forecast — is the trap this program has now refused
+by name three times.
+
+---
+
+## PHASE 3 — the pre-registered resumption order
+
+Triggered purely by eligible-date thresholds. No re-litigation, no re-deciding:
+
+1. **@10 dates — calibration re-fit on the repaired champion.** Low-parameter,
+   LODO where powered, PROVISIONAL, auto-demotion armed, shadow duel restarts on
+   the repaired forecast. The favourite-longshot bias must be **re-measured**,
+   not assumed to have survived the repair.
+2. **@10 dates — hits factor composed-lift re-measure.** The 1.39% figure is
+   **void** — measured on the broken baseline. Direction unknown.
+3. **@14 dates — prior factor verdict re-audit.** Every null and every THEATER
+   was scored against a champion worse than a frequency table. Not pre-priced;
+   some may pass, some may still fail.
+4. **@14 dates — rbi lineup-slot / RISP through the two-part gate.** World A
+   ~90%, within-role residual 0.01908 real, `lineup_context` prod-verified (S89).
+
+**FIRST TRIGGER:** when `reAuditEligibility.assess()` reports **10 eligible
+calibration dates**, the next order is the calibration re-fit.
+
+**Until then the program is honestly IDLE on modeling.** That is the correct
+state, not a gap to fill.
+
+---
+
+## Invariants
+
+No measurement on reconstructions — held. Phase 0 verified live integrity and
+factor *firing*; it did not re-measure lift or re-fit calibration. Serving change
+for the label fix, fingerprinted. `p_win` never mutated. No Bonferroni slot.