Per-sport rank guard + edge diagnostic-only display + delta report

DELTA MEASURED on live prod grades (live ordering unchanged): MLB 7/8
props move (87.5%), mean 2.5 places, TOP READ CHANGES (corey seager hits
1.5 under -> jake burger hits 0.5 over). WNBA 25/25 move, mean 4.1, max 12.
This is a large re-ordering, not a tweak.

Caveat recorded rather than buried: MLB had only 8 graded props at
measurement time. The percentages are real; the sample is one small slate.
Re-run before the flip -- it is one call.

PER-SPORT DOCTRINE ENFORCED IN CODE. WNBA moves the most and must NOT
adopt this: its p_win is anti-predictive, so ranking that board by p_win
would sort it by a signal measured to point the WRONG WAY -- worse than
the incumbent, not better. A comment would not have stopped a future flip
from going global, so FORECAST_RANKED_SPORTS = Set(['mlb']) gates the
forecast_rank stamp, with tests asserting no sport inherits MLB's result.
A sport joins only by passing its own holdout.

EDGE IS NOW DIAGNOSTIC-ONLY IN DISPLAY. MobileEdgeBoard.EdgeCell rendered
green (--g-a) for positive edge and red (--miss) for negative. Two things
were wrong: green/red IS a quality claim on a quantity that does not
predict, and ROW-GRAMMAR reserves red for settled-negative ONLY -- a
negative diagnostic is not a settled loss. Now neutral mono with a
diagnostic tooltip; header reads "MKT GAP · DIAGNOSTIC". The number is
still shown -- no display went blank. DeskShowcase neutralised likewise.

PINNACLE LOGGED, NOT ENSHRINED. Per the order, "market-not-sharp" is
PENDING-RECOVERY rather than a confirmed permanent limitation. The single
question for PropLine is in BLOCKERS.md with its evidence, and MASTER-PLAN
now carries the pending status instead of the permanent claim.

Live sorts remain byte-identical: selectTopGrades, flattenToEdgeBoard and
topGradedService all still call the incumbent.

Gates: 4,041 tests / 323 suites green; next build exit 0.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>
Claude-Session: https://claude.ai/code/session_01QJs13VsyiSKYQP6rj3NNmc

specs/MASTER-PLAN.md

@@ -46,8 +46,18 @@ Two things gate on accrual instead of on code, and cannot be rushed:
 - The **edge verdict** may change under that ruler — or may not; today it is
   unproven either way, and 'unproven' is the honest label.
 
-**Open, cheap, and unrelated to the model:** the 🔴 pinnacle feed regression, and
-the display layer still shows nothing of the widened multi-book data.
+**DONE 2026-08-01** — the challenger is built and measured
+(`specs/rank-on-pwin-challenger.md`): `rankByForecast` (p_win-first, **no edge
+term**), delta recorded (MLB **87.5% of props move, top read changes**), edge
+retired from decisions and from display quality-signalling, `forecast_rank`
+stamped additively, **MLB-only by an enforced `FORECAST_RANKED_SPORTS` guard**.
+
+**THE FLIP IS THE NEXT ORDER** — one decision, three edits. **Re-run the delta on
+a full MLB slate first**; it measured on 8 graded props.
+
+**Open, cheap, unrelated to the model:** the 🔴 pinnacle question (logged in
+`BLOCKERS.md`), and the display layer still shows nothing of the widened
+multi-book data.
 
 ---
 
@@ -58,7 +68,7 @@ the display layer still shows nothing of the widened multi-book data.
 | **MLB slate invisible to us** | **64.8%** | our own allow-list, not the feed — now widened for DISPLAY |
 | **books/prop, MLB** | 3.61 feed → 0.57 after filter | the filter cost, quantified |
 | **books/prop, WNBA** | **4.21** feed → 1.20 | **WNBA is BETTER covered than MLB** |
-| **consensus ruler** | **MARKET, not SHARP** | `pinnacle`/`matchbook`/`polymarket` = **0%** on both sports. No sharp anchor exists in our feed. Permanent limitation, not a milestone |
+| **consensus ruler** | **MARKET, not SHARP — ⏳ PENDING-RECOVERY, not permanent** | `matchbook`/`polymarket` = 0%, but **`pinnacle` ran until 07-30** (103,940 captures) and stopped. **Do not enshrine as permanent** until PropLine answers — see `BLOCKERS.md` |
 | **ruler delta** (consensus − incumbent) | MLB mean +1.50 pts, median 0, **17% of props move ≥5 pts** | rulers genuinely differ; "better" is unproven |
 | **MLB isotonic `p_win`** | **DECIDED** — reliability **0.0846**, resolution **0.190**, holdout **n=125** | **PROVISIONAL label RETRACTED 2026-08-01.** Calibration is **ruler-independent** (`estimateProbability` never sees a price; the fit is p_win-vs-outcome). Replicated on a fresh later window, both metrics improved |
 | **edge vs the ruler** | corr(edge, outcome) **−0.010** (v1) → **−0.022** (v2), n=200 · corr(**p_win**, outcome) **+0.26** | **Subtracting the market DESTROYS the signal.** The consensus ruler does not rescue edge: *differs ≠ better* |