Product identity + widen books for DISPLAY, model input byte-identical

IDENTITY (CLAUDE.md top + MASTER-PLAN header). VYNDR is a PREDICTIVE MODEL:
it projects what a player will DO and picks accurately. Market edge is a
BYPRODUCT of a good prediction, never the success criterion. Success =
the forecast is honest about its own confidence AND still ranks --
calibration and resolution, both. No edge/CLV term belongs in a pass/fail
gate; they are diagnostics we report, not thresholds a model must clear.
A model tuned to beat a closing line has been fitted to the market instead
of to the game.

Per-sport doctrine (Phillips 2022, classify by what players DO not by
position): each sport is its own model -- own variables, archetypes,
conditions, calibration, honest ceiling. Shared across sports: ONLY the
Bayesian inference math.

Truth Law: no fabricated data; honest-absent over invented; label
limitations in-band; provisional stays provisional until re-run;
documented is not verified.

PHASE 2 -- AGGREGATOR WIDENING (live). normalizeProps now emits every
DISPLAY book instead of 5 of 18. Before this we discarded 13 books of our
own accord and 64.8% of the MLB slate was invisible to users. Every prop
carries book_role (both/takeable/reference/dfs/offshore) so the display
layer can say WHAT a price is -- a fixed-payout DFS number and a two-way
sportsbook price are not interchangeable objects. Unknown books are still
dropped.

PHASE 3 -- MODEL GATE (the model does not move). bookRoles splits
MODEL_BOOKS (the legacy allow-list, character for character) from
DISPLAY_BOOKS. Both model paths re-filter before they pick a line:
gradeSlateService.dedupeProps (before first-row-wins AND before the limit)
and intradayRefreshService.indexOddsProps (which RE-GRADES at the current
line -- without the gate, widening would have silently moved locked lines
onto books the model has never been calibrated against). A test asserts
the graded set is byte-identical through the widening.

CURRENT_RULER_VERSION stays v1_first_book. The gate lifts only when the
MLB calibration is re-run on the consensus ruler and v2 is promoted.

HONEST FRAMING, recorded in the plan: this is an AGGREGATOR win and it
does NOT fix the model. WNBA still abstains -- a model problem, not a
coverage problem; it is better covered than MLB. MLB isotonic still
provisional. The consensus is MARKET, not SHARP: pinnacle, matchbook and
polymarket are 0% on both sports, so no sharp anchor exists in our feed.

Two superseded tests updated to stronger properties rather than deleted:
roleOf now names the KIND of book, and the normalizer test asserts the
display set widens WHILE the model set does not.

Gates: 4,027 tests / 322 suites green; next build exit 0.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>
Claude-Session: https://claude.ai/code/session_01QJs13VsyiSKYQP6rj3NNmc
This commit is contained in:
Kev
2026-08-01 00:50:54 -04:00
parent 1372e6bcf7
commit f0543b57a4
9 changed files with 278 additions and 18 deletions
+36 -1
View File
@@ -19,7 +19,13 @@ describe('bookRoles — the three-way split', () => {
for (const dfs of roles.DFS_PLATFORMS) {
expect(roles.REFERENCE_BOOKS.has(dfs)).toBe(false);
expect(roles.EXCLUDED_FROM_PRICING.has(dfs)).toBe(true);
expect(roles.roleOf(dfs)).toBe('excluded');
// roleOf now names the KIND ('dfs'), which is stronger than 'excluded':
// the display layer needs to say WHAT a price is, not just that it can't
// price. Exclusion from pricing is asserted on the line above.
expect(roles.roleOf(dfs)).toBe('dfs');
expect(roles.isReferenceBook(dfs)).toBe(false);
expect(roles.isModelBook(dfs)).toBe(false);
expect(roles.isDisplayBook(dfs)).toBe(true); // shown for breadth, tagged
}
});
@@ -144,3 +150,32 @@ describe('consensusRuler — the incumbent it is challenging', () => {
expect(compareRulers([q('prizepicks', 1.5, -119, -119)], 1.5, 'over', { allowedBooks: LIVE_ALLOWED }).delta_pts).toBeNull();
});
});
describe('bookRoles — display vs model separation (Order Zero Phase 2/3)', () => {
it('MODEL_BOOKS is the legacy allow-list, unchanged — the model must not move', () => {
expect([...roles.MODEL_BOOKS].sort()).toEqual([
'bet365', 'betmgm', 'betrivers', 'caesars', 'draftkings', 'fanatics',
'fanduel', 'hardrockbet', 'pinnacle', 'pointsbet', 'thescore',
].sort());
});
it('DISPLAY_BOOKS is a strict superset of MODEL_BOOKS', () => {
for (const b of roles.MODEL_BOOKS) expect(roles.DISPLAY_BOOKS.has(b)).toBe(true);
expect(roles.DISPLAY_BOOKS.size).toBeGreaterThan(roles.MODEL_BOOKS.size);
});
it('NO DFS or offshore book may reach the model, however visible it is', () => {
for (const b of [...roles.DFS_PLATFORMS, ...roles.OFFSHORE_OR_INTL]) {
expect(roles.isDisplayBook(b)).toBe(true);
expect(roles.isModelBook(b)).toBe(false);
expect(roles.isReferenceBook(b)).toBe(false);
}
});
it('an exchange is visible and may rule, but is never TAKEABLE', () => {
for (const b of roles.EXCHANGES) {
expect(roles.isDisplayBook(b)).toBe(true);
expect(roles.isTakeableBook(b)).toBe(false);
}
});
});