Product identity + widen books for DISPLAY, model input byte-identical
IDENTITY (CLAUDE.md top + MASTER-PLAN header). VYNDR is a PREDICTIVE MODEL: it projects what a player will DO and picks accurately. Market edge is a BYPRODUCT of a good prediction, never the success criterion. Success = the forecast is honest about its own confidence AND still ranks -- calibration and resolution, both. No edge/CLV term belongs in a pass/fail gate; they are diagnostics we report, not thresholds a model must clear. A model tuned to beat a closing line has been fitted to the market instead of to the game. Per-sport doctrine (Phillips 2022, classify by what players DO not by position): each sport is its own model -- own variables, archetypes, conditions, calibration, honest ceiling. Shared across sports: ONLY the Bayesian inference math. Truth Law: no fabricated data; honest-absent over invented; label limitations in-band; provisional stays provisional until re-run; documented is not verified. PHASE 2 -- AGGREGATOR WIDENING (live). normalizeProps now emits every DISPLAY book instead of 5 of 18. Before this we discarded 13 books of our own accord and 64.8% of the MLB slate was invisible to users. Every prop carries book_role (both/takeable/reference/dfs/offshore) so the display layer can say WHAT a price is -- a fixed-payout DFS number and a two-way sportsbook price are not interchangeable objects. Unknown books are still dropped. PHASE 3 -- MODEL GATE (the model does not move). bookRoles splits MODEL_BOOKS (the legacy allow-list, character for character) from DISPLAY_BOOKS. Both model paths re-filter before they pick a line: gradeSlateService.dedupeProps (before first-row-wins AND before the limit) and intradayRefreshService.indexOddsProps (which RE-GRADES at the current line -- without the gate, widening would have silently moved locked lines onto books the model has never been calibrated against). A test asserts the graded set is byte-identical through the widening. CURRENT_RULER_VERSION stays v1_first_book. The gate lifts only when the MLB calibration is re-run on the consensus ruler and v2 is promoted. HONEST FRAMING, recorded in the plan: this is an AGGREGATOR win and it does NOT fix the model. WNBA still abstains -- a model problem, not a coverage problem; it is better covered than MLB. MLB isotonic still provisional. The consensus is MARKET, not SHARP: pinnacle, matchbook and polymarket are 0% on both sports, so no sharp anchor exists in our feed. Two superseded tests updated to stronger properties rather than deleted: roleOf now names the KIND of book, and the normalizer test asserts the display set widens WHILE the model set does not. Gates: 4,027 tests / 322 suites green; next build exit 0. Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com> Claude-Session: https://claude.ai/code/session_01QJs13VsyiSKYQP6rj3NNmc
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@@ -66,27 +66,55 @@ describe('oddsNormalizer', () => {
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});
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});
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it('filters out books not in the allowed set', () => {
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// SUPERSEDED 2026-08-01 (Order Zero). This used to assert bovada was
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// DROPPED. It is now emitted for DISPLAY — we were discarding 13 of the
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// feed's 18 books, which made 64.8% of the MLB slate invisible. The
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// property that replaces it is strictly stronger: the display set widens,
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// every row is TAGGED with what kind of price it is, an unknown book is
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// still dropped, and the MODEL set does not move.
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it('emits every DISPLAY book, tagged with its role, and still drops unknown books', () => {
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const { MODEL_BOOKS } = require('../../src/config/bookRoles');
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const event = makeEvent({
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bookmakers: [
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makeBookmaker('bovada', [
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bookmakers: ['bovada', 'draftkings', 'prizepicks', 'novig', 'not_a_real_book'].map((k) =>
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makeBookmaker(k, [
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makeMarket('player_points', [
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makeOutcome('Over', 'Jokic', -110, 26.5),
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makeOutcome('Under', 'Jokic', -110, 26.5),
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]),
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]),
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makeBookmaker('draftkings', [
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makeMarket('player_points', [
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makeOutcome('Over', 'Jokic', -110, 26.5),
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makeOutcome('Under', 'Jokic', -110, 26.5),
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]),
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]),
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],
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])),
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});
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const result = normalizeProps([event]);
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expect(result).toHaveLength(1);
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expect(result[0].book).toBe('draftkings');
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const byBook = Object.fromEntries(result.map((r) => [r.book, r.book_role]));
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expect(byBook).toEqual({
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draftkings: 'both',
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bovada: 'reference',
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novig: 'reference',
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prizepicks: 'dfs', // shown for breadth, tagged, never a market price
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});
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expect(byBook.not_a_real_book).toBeUndefined(); // unknown books still dropped
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expect(ALLOWED_BOOKS).toBe(MODEL_BOOKS); // the alias still means MODEL
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});
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it('MODEL INPUT IS BYTE-IDENTICAL despite the display widening', () => {
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// The grader re-filters to MODEL_BOOKS before first-row-wins, so widening
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// what the surfaces show cannot change a single graded prop. This is the
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// gate that lifts only when the consensus ruler is promoted.
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const { dedupeProps } = require('../../src/services/gradeSlateService').__internals;
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const event = makeEvent({
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bookmakers: ['prizepicks', 'novig', 'bovada', 'draftkings'].map((k) =>
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makeBookmaker(k, [
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makeMarket('player_points', [
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makeOutcome('Over', 'Jokic', -110, 26.5),
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makeOutcome('Under', 'Jokic', -110, 26.5),
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]),
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])),
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});
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const graded = dedupeProps(normalizeProps([event]), 25);
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expect(graded).toHaveLength(1);
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expect(graded[0].book).toBe('draftkings'); // exactly what it was before
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});
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it('maps every market key to its internal stat_type (NBA + soccer)', () => {
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