diff --git a/specs/STATE.md b/specs/STATE.md
index 11fa656..1f78f56 100644
--- a/specs/STATE.md
+++ b/specs/STATE.md
@@ -331,6 +331,74 @@
 > **HELD:** edge_pct rescale/retirement (Order B) · board columns/contract unchanged · tier-keyed proxy
 > caching. Dashboard visual is auth-gated → TAGGED FOR THE CHROME AUDIT, not faked.
 
+> ## 🔬 C1 — TAKEABLE FLOOR DERIVATION 2026-07-30 (report-only): **CANNOT DERIVE — the data does not support ANY floor number**
+> Read-only. Nothing tagged, built, or changed. **The SHAPE (floor on minus, uncapped plus) is Kev's
+> ratified call and is not in question — this order could not supply the NUMBER, and says so rather
+> than dressing a guess as a derivation.**
+> **0.1/0.2 POPULATION — VERIFIED.** MLB decided (hit/miss) **OVERS = 296**, Jul 11-30, and **100%
+> carry `locked_odds`** (0 missing — the floor is about the price you could actually bet). **METHOD
+> NOTE:** derived over ALL prices, NOT pre-filtered to the current −160..+200 band — pre-filtering
+> would be CIRCULAR and would empty the very deep buckets the floor must judge.
+> **PHASE 1 — ROI BY LOCKED PRICE (flat 1u, 95% CI on the mean return):**
+> | bucket | n | hit% | breakeven% | **ROI%** | 95% CI |
+> |---|---|---|---|---|---|
+> | +200 and up | 39 | 20.5 | 22.0 | **−13.15** | [−68.6, +42.3] |
+> | +100..+199 | 51 | 52.9 | 44.5 | **+19.31** | [−12.0, +50.7] |
+> | −110..+99 | 8 | 62.5 | 51.3 | +21.60 | [−48.2, +91.4] **TOO THIN** |
+> | −111..−135 | 32 | 50.0 | 55.8 | **−10.55** | [−42.1, +21.0] |
+> | −136..−160 | 43 | 53.5 | 60.1 | **−11.68** | [−36.6, +13.2] |
+> | −161..−200 | 71 | 69.0 | 64.6 | **+6.46** | [−10.3, +23.2] |
+> | worse than −200 | 52 | 73.1 | 69.7 | **+4.75** | [−12.7, +22.2] |
+> **🔴 THREE FINDINGS THAT BLOCK A DERIVED FLOOR:**
+> **(1) EVERY 95% CI CONTAINS ZERO.** Not one bucket is statistically distinguishable from zero ROI.
+> Phase 2 asked for "the deepest price where ROI is still positive WITH MARGIN" — **no such bucket
+> exists.** Any floor drawn here is drawn through noise, which this order explicitly forbids.
+> **(2) THE CURVE IS NON-MONOTONE AND RUNS OPPOSITE TO THE PREMISE'S MODEL.** The premise reasons that
+> deep-negative prices are structurally −EV ("the price ate the edge"). The data shows the **deepest
+> buckets are the POSITIVE ones** (−161..−200 → +6.5%; worse-than−200 → +4.8%, hitting 73.1% against a
+> 69.7% breakeven) while the **most negative ROI sits INSIDE the current takeable band** (−111..−160 →
+> ≈ −11 to −13%). Read literally this data says "avoid −111..−160," which is almost certainly noise —
+> and that is exactly why it must not be turned into a floor.
+> **(3) A REAL CONFOUND: price bucket is entangled with MARKET.** +200-and-up is `doubles/home_runs`
+> (rare-event longshots, avg line 0.53); the deep-negative buckets are `hits/total_bases` ("will he get
+> a hit"). Holding the market constant (hits + total_bases only) the non-monotone shape PERSISTS
+> (+100up +22.6 · −111..−135 **−13.4** · −136..−160 **−13.5** · −161..−200 +6.5 · worse-than−200 +4.8),
+> so the confound is not the whole story — but it means a price-only floor would partly be encoding
+> "avoid HR/doubles props," which is a market rule, not a price rule.
+> **POWER — how far the data runs out.** Rows needed PER BUCKET to resolve a 5-point ROI edge at 95%:
+> **661-2,285.** Actual bucket sizes: **8-71.** We are 10x-100x short. At the observed accrual (18.5
+> decided MLB overs/day; 4.44/day into the −161..−200 bucket) reaching 828 rows in that ONE bucket
+> takes **~187 days** — and the MLB season ends well before that, so it will not accrue continuously.
+> **THE INHERITED −160 IS ALSO UNVALIDATED (neither confirmed nor refuted).** In-band (−160..+200) ROI
+> **+3.84%** [−13.0, +20.7] vs out-of-band **−0.04%** [−16.1, +16.0] — a ~3.9-point gap with massively
+> overlapping intervals. Post-fix-only (≥2026-07-19, the model-version cutoff): in-band +7.91%
+> [−11.7, +27.5] (n=102) vs out-of-band −2.07% (n=112). Directionally friendly to the current band,
+> statistically silent.
+> **PHASE 2.6 — THE NO-CEILING CALL IS NOT SUPPORTED BY THIS DATA EITHER (stated straight).** The
+> +200-and-up bucket is the WORST performer (ROI −13.15%, hitting 20.5% against a 22.0% breakeven).
+> It is confounded (doubles/HR) and n=39 with a [−68.6, +42.3] interval, so it does not REFUTE the
+> no-cap call — but it certainly does not support it. **Uncapped plus-money remains a defensible
+> design/risk choice; it should not be described as data-backed.**
+> **RECOMMENDATION FOR C2 (so it is not blocked on a number that cannot be derived):** ship the floor
+> as an explicitly-labelled **POLICY** floor — keep **−160** (inherited, already the band everywhere,
+> and directionally the better half of the only comparison available) — and **label it in code and copy
+> as a policy choice pending derivation, NOT as derived**. **RE-DERIVATION TRIGGER (so "provisional"
+> cannot silently become permanent): re-run this order when ANY negative bucket reaches n ≥ 300, or at
+> the end of the MLB regular season, whichever comes first — and only adopt a data-derived floor when a
+> bucket's 95% CI EXCLUDES zero.**
+> **0.3 — EVERY `takeable` DEFINITION SITE C2 MUST UNIFY (9):** **DEFINITIONS (2):**
+> `src/config/valueEngine.js:21-22,30-35` (env-tunable `TAKEABLE_ODDS_CEILING`/`TAKEABLE_ODDS_MAX`,
+> defaults −160/200) · `web/src/lib/valueState.js:42-43,72-77` (**HARDCODED −160/200**).
+> **🔴 LIVE DRIFT HAZARD FOR C2:** the backend is env-tunable and the frontend is hardcoded, so
+> changing `TAKEABLE_ODDS_CEILING` in prod TODAY would silently desync the two. **CONSUMERS (7):**
+> `src/utils/gradeRanking.js:25,56` (hero + server board) · `src/services/heroPropService.js` (via
+> gradeRanking) · **`src/services/intelligence/analyzeViaEngine1.js:567`** (stamps `legacy.takeable`
+> onto every graded prop — this is the one that reaches the snapshot/ledger) ·
+> `src/config/valueEngine.js:40` (`isValue`) · `web/src/lib/slateAdapter.js:474,478` (client board) ·
+> `web/src/lib/valueState.js:82` (`isValue` mirror) · **`web/src/components/vyndr/PriceTriplet.tsx:9-10,68`
+> (renders the band IN USER-VISIBLE COPY — "Takeable band −160 to +200", so a floor change is a copy
+> change too).**
+
 - **Redirect EXISTS + WIRED:** `closingCapture.buildCaptureRows`→`closing_captures` (append-only,
   provenance: captured_at/book/line_type/both-prices/missed_reason) via `intradayRefreshService:221`
   + internal endpoint; `ledgerService.attachClosingProb`→`closing_prob` (de-vigs both raw sides,