The runtime names its artifact before anything is switched on

Step 35 asks the deployed process to prove WHICH frozen curve it resolves —
artifact id, procedure, era, source digest, knot digest, curve digest, support,
servable, stage — with the shadow still OFF. The probe could not answer, so the
same shadowState() evaluator now resolves the promoted artifact and reports its
identity. Identity only: the curve is committed and addressable by artifact_id,
and repeating it on a status page would put a second copy of the truth there.

null means nothing is promoted, which is also the honest answer when the file is
missing or fails its policy at load.

Suite 404/404. Shadow OFF. Live OFF.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>
Claude-Session: https://claude.ai/code/session_01CQJeAG8vcDoL5zkiaJyVb8

src/services/model/probabilityContract.js

@@ -305,6 +305,31 @@ const SHADOW_ENV = 'PROBABILITY_CONTRACT_SHADOW';
 function shadowState(env = process.env) {
   const raw = env[SHADOW_ENV];
   const on = String(raw || '') === '1';
+  // WHICH FROZEN ARTIFACT THIS PROCESS WOULD USE — resolvable with the shadow
+  // OFF, because "is the right curve deployed?" must be answerable before
+  // anything is switched on. Identity only: the curve itself is committed and
+  // addressable by `artifact_id`, and repeating it here would put a second copy
+  // of the truth on a status page.
+  let artifact = null;
+  try {
+    const a = require('./artifactRegistry').load(MLB_HITS.sport, MLB_HITS.stat);
+    if (a) {
+      artifact = Object.freeze({
+        artifact_id: a.artifact_id, procedure_version: a.procedure_version,
+        model_version: a.model_version, fit_as_of: a.fit_as_of,
+        training_cutoff: a.training_cutoff, fit_n: a.fit_n,
+        withheld_from_fit: a.withheld_from_fit,
+        source_digest: a.source_digest, knot_digest: a.knot_digest,
+        served_curve_digest: a.served_curve_digest, knot_count: a.knot_count,
+        certified_bands: a.certified_bands, stage: a.stage,
+        approved_for_shadow: a.approved_for_shadow, approved_for_live: a.approved_for_live,
+        servable: a.servable, fit_policy_valid: a.fit_policy_valid,
+        fit_policy_violations: a.fit_policy_violations,
+        wrong_era_rows: a.era_audit ? a.era_audit.wrong_era_rows : null,
+      });
+    }
+  } catch { artifact = null; }
+
   return Object.freeze({
     shadow: on ? 'ON' : 'OFF',
     env_var: SHADOW_ENV,
@@ -315,6 +340,9 @@ function shadowState(env = process.env) {
     certified_support: MLB_HITS.certified_bands,
     estimator_version: MLB_HITS.estimator_version,
     model_version: MLB_HITS.model_version,
+    // null means NOTHING is promoted — which is also the honest answer when the
+    // file is missing or fails its policy at load.
+    artifact,
   });
 }
 

tests/unit/artifactGovernance.test.js

@@ -172,3 +172,29 @@ describe('model-era transition law', () => {
     expect(check.servable).toBe(false);
   });
 });
+
+describe('the runtime can name its artifact with the shadow OFF', () => {
+  it('reports the full identity without enabling anything', () => {
+    const st = pc.shadowState({});
+    expect(st.shadow).toBe('OFF');
+    expect(st.live_serving).toBe('OFF');
+    const a = st.artifact;
+    for (const k of ['artifact_id', 'procedure_version', 'model_version', 'fit_as_of',
+      'training_cutoff', 'fit_n', 'source_digest', 'knot_digest', 'served_curve_digest',
+      'certified_bands', 'stage']) expect(a[k]).toBeTruthy();
+    expect(a.servable).toBe(true);
+    expect(a.approved_for_shadow).toBe(true);
+    expect(a.approved_for_live).toBe(false);
+    expect(a.wrong_era_rows).toBe(0);
+    expect(a.withheld_from_fit).toBe(0);
+  });
+
+  it('does not put a second copy of the curve on a status surface', () => {
+    expect(pc.shadowState({}).artifact.served_curve).toBeUndefined();
+  });
+
+  it('two resolutions return the same artifact — no refit between calls', () => {
+    expect(JSON.stringify(pc.shadowState({}).artifact))
+      .toBe(JSON.stringify(pc.shadowState({}).artifact));
+  });
+});