Suppress rare-event 0.5 unders (juiced, no-edge) — config-driven grade + board fix
Betting-logic audit: the CONSENSUS-vs-MODEL board flooded with fake reads like "DOUBLES u0.5 · MODEL 0.2 · +edge" — the juiced under side of rare counting-stat markets (doubles/triples/HR/SB), which is never a takeable edge and violates the no-unders-default doctrine. Report finding (item 3/4): the doubles projection is REAL per-player, not a flat fallback — 'doubles' maps to a real game-log field (MLB_LOG_FIELD doubles→ doubles) and the live values varied (0.03/0.16/0.2/0.22). So no projection-gate refusal for fakeness; the problem is purely structural (a rare event's real projection always sits below a 0.5 line, so the under always "wins"). Fix (config-driven — src/config/rareEventMarkets.js, tunable stat list + line threshold): - Grade layer (analyzeViaEngine1): a rare-event UNDER at ≤0.5 is always REFUSED (grade null + suppressed flag/reason). A rare-event OVER at ≤0.5 is refused UNLESS the model genuinely projects the event above the line — because a 0.2-over-0.5 carries the SAME |edge| as the suppressed under and would just take its rank on the board. The over grades normally once projection > line. - Board layer (marketBreadth.collectBreadth): drops null-model rows so a suppressed/ungraded prop can't rank a "MODEL —" placeholder onto the board. 10 suppression tests + config locks; also fixed a settingsPage book assertion left over from the ESPN→theScore swap. Suite 274/3289 green, web build exit 0. Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.8 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>
This commit is contained in:
@@ -10,7 +10,8 @@ describe('books lib (BookChip data)', () => {
|
||||
it('maps known books to brand colors (case-insensitive aliases)', () => {
|
||||
expect(bookInfo('DK')).toMatchObject({ name: 'DraftKings', fg: '#53D337' });
|
||||
expect(bookInfo('draftkings').mono).toBe('DK');
|
||||
expect(bookInfo('ESPN').mono).toBe('EB');
|
||||
// ESPN BET retired → theScore Bet (PENN) successor (item 7).
|
||||
expect(bookInfo('THESCORE')).toMatchObject({ name: 'theScore Bet', mono: 'TS' });
|
||||
});
|
||||
it('degrades unknown books to a neutral chip', () => {
|
||||
const b = bookInfo('ZZZ');
|
||||
|
||||
Reference in New Issue
Block a user