diff --git a/specs/hits-v1-binomial.md b/specs/hits-v1-binomial.md
index f7ffdaf..b888425 100644
--- a/specs/hits-v1-binomial.md
+++ b/specs/hits-v1-binomial.md
@@ -294,7 +294,27 @@ unaffected — the deployed API and the MCP connection both use the correct ref.
 The holdout was run with an explicit `SUPABASE_URL` override rather than editing
 your credentials file.
 
-## 11. POST-DEPLOY FINGERPRINT — armed, PENDING (blocked upstream, not by this change)
+## 11. POST-DEPLOY FINGERPRINT — **PASSED** 2026-08-03
+
+Confirmed on the first snapshot after deploy (game_date 2026-08-03):
+
+```
+hits rows 72 · proj_hits_p_over written 72 · 100%
+mean p 0.538
+takeable by identity 72/72
+outside promotion band 45 — MODELLED anyway
+```
+
+hits-v1 writes in production exactly as the live-board verification predicted,
+and the takeable axis behaves as specified: 45 of 72 real hits props sit outside
+the promotion band and were modelled regardless, because scope is book identity
+and never price shape.
+
+The verdict is unchanged — **hits-v1 is REFUTED and stays unpromoted** (§7–§8).
+This fingerprint confirms only that the challenger is recording, so the forward
+accrual can confirm or overturn the backtest.
+
+### Original PENDING note, kept for the record
 
 Deployed 2026-08-02 ~23:05 UTC (the API 502'd and returned at 23:05:35, right
 after the push). The **prod-write fingerprint has NOT landed yet**, and the