READ-ONLY. src/ and web/ untouched.
Inventoried every forward-model component against the real objective -- a
forward matchup projection, not an edge number. The finding is that all of it
already exists and is already loaded in production, and 100% of it sits
DOWNSTREAM of the grade in challenger columns nothing serves. The served p_win
reads three features and a game log; it has never seen a pitcher.
Inputs are HAVE, not missing: statcast_aggregates carries 1,354 rows (750
pitchers, 604 batters) with exit velo, launch angle, barrel, hard-hit, whiff,
chase, pitch mix, GB/FB, arm angle, and handedness complete on every row. Real
gaps are team defense and catcher/umpire. So Stage A is a plumbing-and-
modelling job, not a data-acquisition job.
Found along the way: the Statcast nightly refresh is unreachable code. tick()
returns for any hour not in HOURS_UTC (14,19,22,1,3) and the refresh block
then tests h === 11, which that guard can never admit. The mechanism data has
been frozen at its 2026-07-21 backfill for 13 days, and the block's own
failure alert sits in the same dead branch -- the identical silently-guarded-
out shape as the settlement outage.
Design shows the counter: every factor label the SIGNAL BREAKDOWN renders is a
restatement of recent frequency (l5_hot_vs_line, l20_over_line, back_to_back,
home_game) plus several structurally-NBA labels (referees, coach pace,
starters out) inside a baseball product. Not one names a pitcher, pitch type,
handedness or park. The card's forward-read slots already exist and go
unfilled -- the surface needs feeding, not redesigning.
On what changes: the prior measurements were outcome-accuracy, not edge, so
the metric was right and the question was narrow. proj-v1.1 and hits-v1 stay
correctly refuted as DISTRIBUTION swaps on thin inputs -- neither tested a
matchup-fed projection. arch-v1 is a market-relative nudge by construction and
is the one component genuinely measured on the wrong axis. AT CEILING is
provisional: measured only against features the champion already reads.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>
Claude-Session: https://claude.ai/code/session_01W1sivYNqY2TS5ftykmHBU9
