Records the verification that matters: firing measured on a real prod
snapshot rather than inferred. environment 248/293 (84.6%) -- also its
FIRST confirmed ledger write, which the previous session could only infer
-- and matchup 243/293 (82.9%) on tier batter_own_split. Both were 0/634.
Collinearity guard passed at n=243: r = -0.003 vs the projection, +0.074 vs
p_win, +0.003 vs line, -0.068 vs environment, -0.150 vs opportunity. The
axis is not re-encoding recent form. The nudge distribution is also the
right SHAPE -- mean +0.0007, 123 positive / 120 negative -- a balanced
two-sided signal; a one-sided distribution would have suggested a sign or
baseline error.
Plan reconciled in place: arch-v1 condition axes marked firing, three
challengers listed with coverage and their own holdout queries, and the
next-order pointer moved to connecting the still-dormant layers
(similarity, Bayesian, distribution ladder) with archetype_x_archetype as
the named alternative.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>
Claude-Session: https://claude.ai/code/session_01QJs13VsyiSKYQP6rj3NNmc
