PART A -- WNBA TRUTH CORRECTION (no behaviour change).
WNBA does not "abstain" and is not "anti-predictive". The -0.12 that
produced those words was NBA-template machinery run on WNBA data -- WNBA
has never had its own archetypes, variables, conditions or calibration,
which is precisely the "sport stubbed in on another sport's template"
CLAUDE.md forbids. That is an UNBUILT MODEL'S EXPECTED FAILURE, not a
verdict on the sport; reading it as a verdict would quietly retire a sport
we never actually attempted. Its own build is QUEUED, after MLB.
The guard CODE is unchanged -- FORECAST_RANKED_SPORTS = {'mlb'} and the
inheritance test are correct live safety either way. Only the meaning is
corrected, and generalised into the doctrine-as-a-gate: a sport ranks on
p_win ONLY once its OWN model is built and shown to predict (calibration
AND resolution on its own holdout). Others are held out as NOT-BUILT,
never as failed. Re-labelled across gradeRanking, snapshot route, tests,
MASTER-PLAN and the challenger report.
PART B -- THE FLIP, gated on a full-slate re-run.
The re-run found something better than a bigger sample. An induced
snapshot graded 7 props: gradeAndCacheSlate runs with DEFAULT_LIMIT = 25
and ~72% of those refuse for insufficient_data, while 546 props are
gradeable. So 8 props IS the board, structurally -- not a small sample of
it. Logged as its own finding; the cap is a separate order.
For a statistically meaningful delta I used 11 real historical boards
(n=328, board sizes 14-57): 79.9% of rows move, mean 5.16 places per
board, TOP READ CHANGES ON 9 OF 11 BOARDS. The re-ordering holds at real
board size. Query committed.
FLIPPED:
- rankGrades drops its edge key (safe for every sport: removes a
non-predictive tiebreak without putting p_win in front).
- selectTopGrades leads on forecast_rank, edge key removed.
- flattenToEdgeBoard sorts on forecastRank, not edge -- this board had
edge as its PRIMARY key, so the whole mobile board was ordered by a
quantity measured not to predict.
- forecast_rank threaded onto strip props.
Sports whose model is not built supply no forecast_rank, so their boards
fall through to the unchanged grade chain -- the fallback is the guard.
ROLLBACK ARMED: boards sort by forecast_rank WHEN PRESENT, so
FORECAST_RANK=0 reverts every surface on the next response -- no deploy,
no client release.
Edge is still computed, stored, carried and displayed as a labelled
diagnostic. Retired from ranking, not deleted.
Eight superseded tests updated to strictly stronger INVERSE properties --
they now fail if edge is ever re-introduced as a ranking key, which the
originals could not detect.
Gates: 4,045 tests / 323 suites green; next build exit 0.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>
Claude-Session: https://claude.ai/code/session_01QJs13VsyiSKYQP6rj3NNmc
DELTA MEASURED on live prod grades (live ordering unchanged): MLB 7/8
props move (87.5%), mean 2.5 places, TOP READ CHANGES (corey seager hits
1.5 under -> jake burger hits 0.5 over). WNBA 25/25 move, mean 4.1, max 12.
This is a large re-ordering, not a tweak.
Caveat recorded rather than buried: MLB had only 8 graded props at
measurement time. The percentages are real; the sample is one small slate.
Re-run before the flip -- it is one call.
PER-SPORT DOCTRINE ENFORCED IN CODE. WNBA moves the most and must NOT
adopt this: its p_win is anti-predictive, so ranking that board by p_win
would sort it by a signal measured to point the WRONG WAY -- worse than
the incumbent, not better. A comment would not have stopped a future flip
from going global, so FORECAST_RANKED_SPORTS = Set(['mlb']) gates the
forecast_rank stamp, with tests asserting no sport inherits MLB's result.
A sport joins only by passing its own holdout.
EDGE IS NOW DIAGNOSTIC-ONLY IN DISPLAY. MobileEdgeBoard.EdgeCell rendered
green (--g-a) for positive edge and red (--miss) for negative. Two things
were wrong: green/red IS a quality claim on a quantity that does not
predict, and ROW-GRAMMAR reserves red for settled-negative ONLY -- a
negative diagnostic is not a settled loss. Now neutral mono with a
diagnostic tooltip; header reads "MKT GAP · DIAGNOSTIC". The number is
still shown -- no display went blank. DeskShowcase neutralised likewise.
PINNACLE LOGGED, NOT ENSHRINED. Per the order, "market-not-sharp" is
PENDING-RECOVERY rather than a confirmed permanent limitation. The single
question for PropLine is in BLOCKERS.md with its evidence, and MASTER-PLAN
now carries the pending status instead of the permanent claim.
Live sorts remain byte-identical: selectTopGrades, flattenToEdgeBoard and
topGradedService all still call the incumbent.
Gates: 4,041 tests / 323 suites green; next build exit 0.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>
Claude-Session: https://claude.ai/code/session_01QJs13VsyiSKYQP6rj3NNmc
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