number beside it
PHASE 0 corrects the order's premise. A grade letter has been served all
along -- engine1.gradeProp builds it from an additive factor index,
computed INDEPENDENTLY of p_win. gradeBands is orphaned for a different
reason than assumed: it defines what a letter MEANS from realized
outcomes, and every band collapses to base-rate at current resolution.
The measurement that changed this order, on 3,417 settled props:
grade n realized mean p_win
A 8 0.500 0.647 <- the TOP grade did WORST
B 985 0.640 0.700
C 1,695 0.602 0.676
D 303 0.558 0.604
F 426 0.535 0.588
letter resolution 0.00116 (0.48% of variance)
p_win resolution 0.00715 (2.98%)
-> the letter carried 0.16x the information of the number beside it
Concretely, from the hand-verify: Christian Encarnacion's 0.95 over
graded C and his 0.05 under ALSO graded C -- same hitter, opposite
forecasts, same letter. The gap was never that grades don't ship; it is
that the weaker of two available signals shipped as the headline.
PHASE 1 — model/servedGrade.js derives the letter from p_win with bands
anchored on MEASURED realized rates (B+ 0.663 / B 0.646 / C+ 0.615 /
C 0.589 / C- 0.548 / D 0.512 / F 0.447, base 0.6005).
NO MANUFACTURED A, structurally: A+/A/A- are UNISSUABLE, not rare. The
realized rate plateaus at 0.65-0.68 above p_win 0.70, so no band has
earned a top letter; a test sweeps every p_win 0..1 and asserts none
produces one. Even 0.99 tops out at B+ with its realized 0.663 attached.
Raising that ceiling later is a deliberate, visible act.
Bands that cannot separate SAY so -- C+/C/C- carry
separates_from_base_rate false and copy naming it, which is the honest
description of a forecast explaining 3% of variance. Every grade states
its basis (forecast_only vs forecast_plus_matchup_factors, naming which
factors fired) and calibrated:false. engine1.grade is preserved as
engine_grade so nothing downstream breaks.
PHASE 2 — refusals render real states: insufficient_data -> "not enough
history to call this one"; juiced_no_edge -> "the book has priced the vig
past any edge on this side". 1,870 refused snapshots carry exactly those
two reasons and both now surface.
PHASE 3 — hand-verified on 12 real served props. Freeman/Rice/Encarnacion
0.95 overs now B+ (was B, C, B); the 0.05 unders now F (was C). Refused
doubles render NO READ with their reason. never-blank PASS,
no-manufactured-A PASS.
Serving change; nine frozen model modules unchanged including engine1;
p_win never mutated; no calibrated number leaks (deployed set empty); no
Bonferroni slot.
STILL TRUE: the forecast explains ~3% of outcome variance. This order did
not make the model better. It made the letter stop overstating it.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>
Claude-Session: https://claude.ai/code/session_01W1sivYNqY2TS5ftykmHBU9
